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Toyota rebooting its EV plan with Tesla in mind

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Old Oct 24, 2022 | 06:38 PM
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Default Toyota rebooting its EV plan with Tesla in mind

tldr; Toyota vastly underestimated EV growth, put all its current EV plans on ice, and is scrambling to figure out how to catch up.


Exclusive: Toyota scrambles for EV reboot with eye on Tesla

Oct 24 (Reuters) - Toyota (7203.T) is considering a reboot of its electric-car strategy to better compete in a booming market it has been slow to enter, and has halted some work on existing EV projects, four people with knowledge of the still-developing plans said.

The proposals under review, if adopted, would amount to a dramatic shift for Toyota and rewrite the $38-billion EV rollout plan the Japanese automaker announced last year to better compete with the likes of Tesla (TSLA.O).

A working group within Toyota has been charged with outlining plans by early next year for improvements to its existing EV platform or for a new architecture, the four individuals said.

In the meantime, Toyota has suspended work on some of the 30 EV projects announced in December, which according to the sources and a document reviewed by Reuters include the Toyota Compact Cruiser crossover and the battery-electric Crown.

Toyota said it was committed to carbon neutrality but declined to comment on specific initiatives.

"In order to achieve carbon neutrality, Toyota's own technology - as well as the work we are doing with a range of partners and suppliers - is essential," the company said in response to questions from Reuters.

The four sources declined to be identified because the plans have not been made public.

The revamp under consideration could slow the rollout of EVs already on the drawing board. But it would also give Toyota a chance to compete with a more efficient manufacturing process, as industry-wide EV sales run past Toyota's earlier projections.

In addition, it would address criticism by green investors and environmental groups who argue that Toyota, once a darling of environmentalists, has been too slow to embrace EVs.

As part of the review, Toyota is considering a successor to its EV-underpinning technology called e-TNGA, unveiled in 2019. That would allow Toyota to bring down costs, the people said.

The first EV based on e-TNGA — the bZ4X crossover — hit the market earlier this year although its launch was marred by a recall that forced Toyota to suspend production from June. Production resumed earlier this month.

TESLA AS BENCHMARK

The review was triggered in part by the realisation by some Toyota engineers and executives that Toyota was losing the factory cost war to Tesla on EVs, the sources said.

Toyota's planning had assumed demand for EVs would not take off for several decades, the four people said.

Toyota designed e-TNGA so that EVs could be produced on the same assembly line with gasoline cars and hybrids. That made sense based on the assumption Toyota would need to sell about 3.5 million EVs a year – roughly one-third of its current global volume – by 2030 to stay competitive, the sources said.

But sales of EVs are growing faster. Automakers globally now forecast plans for EVs to represent more than half of total vehicle production by 2030, part of a wave of industry-wide investment that now totals $1.2 trillion.

The person leading Toyota's EV review is Shigeki Terashi, former chief competitive officer, according to six people with knowledge of the work, including two people close to Toyota. Terashi did not respond to a request for comment.

Terashi's team has been designated a "BR" or "business revolution" group within Toyota, a term used for major changes including a revamp of its development and production processes two decades ago.

"What's driving Mr Terashi's effort is the EV's faster-than-anticipated takeoff and rapid-fire adoptions of cutting-edge innovations by Tesla and others," one of the people said.

All six people declined to be named because of the confidential nature of the plans.

Terashi's team is considering an option to prolong e-TNGA's usefulness by coupling it with new tecnnologies, three of the sources said.

Terashi could also propose to retire e-TNGA more quickly and opt for an EV-dedicated platform engineered from the ground up. That could take roughly five years for new models, two of the sources said. "There is little time to waste," said one.

Toyota is working with suppliers and considering factory innovations to bring down costs like Tesla's Giga Press, a massive casting machine that has streamlined work in Tesla plants.

One area under review is a more comprehensive approach to an EV's thermal management - combining, for example, passenger air conditioning and electric powertrain temperature control - that Tesla has already mobilised, the sources said.

This could allow Toyota to reduce the size and weight of an EV battery pack and cut costs by thousands of dollars per vehicle, making it a "top priority" for Toyota suppliers Denso and Aisin, one of the sources familiar with the matter said. Denso (6902.T) and Aisin (7259.T) had no immediate comment.

The recognition within Toyota, the world's biggest automaker, that Tesla has set a new benchmark for EV manufacturing costs marks a major reversal.

A decade ago when Toyota took a stake in Tesla and the two collaborated to produce a battery-electric version of the RAV4, many Toyota engineers believed Tesla's technology was no threat, two of the sources said.

"They concluded back then there wasn't much to learn," one of the sources said.

Toyota discontinued the electric RAV4 in 2014 and sold its stake in Tesla in 2017.

By 2018, when Toyota finally set up a dedicated zero-emissions division and began building an e-platform, Tesla already had three models on the road.
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Old Oct 24, 2022 | 06:52 PM
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The four sources declined to be identified because the plans have not been made public.
Lol. This is poor journalism.
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Old Oct 24, 2022 | 07:02 PM
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Originally Posted by LexsCTJill
Lol. This is poor journalism.
This is profoundly funny considering how frequently Best Car Web's wet dreams are parroted here. Reuters over them any day.
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Old Oct 24, 2022 | 10:20 PM
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Wonder what this means for the future of Lexus products... ICE IS replacement back on the table? Hope so..!
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Old Oct 24, 2022 | 11:01 PM
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Originally Posted by gor134
Wonder what this means for the future of Lexus products... ICE IS replacement back on the table? Hope so..!
If anything, it seems more like Toyota is now dedicated to putting more R&D into EV's than ever since demand far surpassed their expectations. They just received a wake-up call and now have to play catch-up to everyone else.

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Old Oct 25, 2022 | 02:08 AM
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Got no faith is just about anything Toyota/Lexus says or does these days. They seem arrogant, like they know better what the customer wants than the customers themselves, and think they are just owed customer loyalty. They are about to learn a painful, expensive lesson over the next few years.
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Old Oct 25, 2022 | 09:40 AM
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The problem is, many people who want an EV - only want a Tesla. It's like a buying cult. Sort of like what Toyota created with the Prius. The other automakers are going to find out soon enough that they are overproducing EVs, not that many people want them. They are relying on government mandates to force people to buy them by outlawing ICE cars.
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Old Oct 25, 2022 | 01:42 PM
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Originally Posted by lexusnyca
The other automakers are going to find out soon enough that they are overproducing EVs, not that many people want them.
According to the article, Toyota found out the opposite is true.
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Old Oct 25, 2022 | 01:53 PM
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What people say they want to buy, and what they actually buy, are two different things. Any new EV announced is met with a flurry of "pre-orders" that takes up the first two years of production, where sales go after that is the key - not the hype among the early adopters in the first two years. Tesla has the cult buyers, they can sell them a 60-70K car that has the content and build quality of a 30-40K car, and still they buy it.
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Old Oct 25, 2022 | 02:20 PM
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I don’t believe this. Toyota has very recently publicly stated they’re keeping ICE cars along with new EVs. Even so it says they’re “considering” not that it’s down in stone.

Edit: I was wrong, Motor Trend confirmed it. Terrible move but whatever. There’s a reason so many V8 cars/trucks have huge waiting lists and/or markups.

Last edited by AJT123; Oct 25, 2022 at 02:29 PM.
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Old Oct 25, 2022 | 02:50 PM
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I don't think there's really much to see here other than the fact that Toyota is reviewing their EV plans. Some may be delayed to bring others forward, or there may be no changes at all. They may need a new or revised e-TNGA or stick with the current one.

All I'm getting from this and the related articles is that they are taking a second look at their plans. Am I missing something?
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Old Oct 25, 2022 | 03:02 PM
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I don't typically watch Kirk's clickbait videos, but what he had to say at 1:24 pretty much confirms that there's a big change going to be announced in December regarding Toyota's EV plans.


David Chow (Automotive Press) is generally a reliable source of information on Toyota matters.
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Old Oct 25, 2022 | 03:49 PM
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Well of course Tesla is more profitable per vehicle - their buyers will pay $60K for a car that content compares to a $30K ICE car. Anyone willing to pay $60K for a RAV4, or $40K for a Corolla? Not me. The Tesla benchmark all these automakers are aiming for, is unattainable by them because the Tesla buyers are a cult willing to pay any price for those cars. Similar to iPhone buyers. The only way these EV investments can succeed, is if the government forcibly bans ICE cars (and basically denies the middle class access to any new car purchase) - and the political winds are going to change over the next 2 years on those 2030 ICE bans, at least in the US. Tesla isn't a luxury brand - the buyers pay luxury level prices and think they are buying a luxury car, which the 3 and the Y are not.
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Old Oct 25, 2022 | 03:57 PM
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Originally Posted by lexusnyca
The problem is, many people who want an EV - only want a Tesla. It's like a buying cult. Sort of like what Toyota created with the Prius. The other automakers are going to find out soon enough that they are overproducing EVs, not that many people want them. They are relying on government mandates to force people to buy them by outlawing ICE cars.
Originally Posted by lexusnyca
What people say they want to buy, and what they actually buy, are two different things. Any new EV announced is met with a flurry of "pre-orders" that takes up the first two years of production, where sales go after that is the key - not the hype among the early adopters in the first two years. Tesla has the cult buyers, they can sell them a 60-70K car that has the content and build quality of a 30-40K car, and still they buy it.
Originally Posted by lexusnyca
Well of course Tesla is more profitable per vehicle - their buyers will pay $60K for a car that content compares to a $30K ICE car. Anyone willing to pay $60K for a RAV4, or $40K for a Corolla? Not me. The Tesla benchmark all these automakers are aiming for, is unattainable by them because the Tesla buyers are a cult willing to pay any price for those cars. Similar to iPhone buyers. The only way these EV investments can succeed, is if the government forcibly bans ICE cars (and basically denies the middle class access to any new car purchase) - and the political winds are going to change over the next 2 years on those 2030 ICE bans, at least in the US. Tesla isn't a luxury brand - the buyers pay luxury level prices and think they are buying a luxury car, which the 3 and the Y are not.
So...Tesla buyers are like a cult? Is that the only reason people buy Teslas? To be in the cult?
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Old Oct 25, 2022 | 08:29 PM
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Originally Posted by JDR76
I don't think there's really much to see here other than the fact that Toyota is reviewing their EV plans. Some may be delayed to bring others forward, or there may be no changes at all. They may need a new or revised e-TNGA or stick with the current one.

All I'm getting from this and the related articles is that they are taking a second look at their plans.
Could be anything really. There really isn’t much there other than what you said, they are reviewing their strategy. I think it’s possible that Toyota will abandon their cheaper stuff they might have planes Looking at some of their planned products, they don’t look all that appealing. The urban cruiser doesn’t do it for me.




This is not very compelling

Originally Posted by JDR76
So...Tesla buyers are like a cult? Is that the only reason people buy Teslas? To be in the cult?
Tesla needs to come out with a Tesla Model C for Cult

Originally Posted by AJT123
I don’t believe this. Toyota has very recently publicly stated they’re keeping ICE cars along with new EVs. Even so it says they’re “considering” not that it’s down in stone.

Edit: I was wrong, Motor Trend confirmed it. Terrible move but whatever. There’s a reason so many V8 cars/trucks have huge waiting lists and/or markups.
I don’t really believe it either

Originally Posted by Bob04
Got no faith is just about anything Toyota/Lexus says or does these days. They seem arrogant, like they know better what the customer wants than the customers themselves, and think they are just owed customer loyalty. They are about to learn a painful, expensive lesson over the next few years.
Toyota is the #1 automaker. Toyota is the #1 automaker in the US. They do the middle of the market very well

Originally Posted by gor134
s... ICE IS replacement back on the table? Hope so..!
maybe with a Mazda inline 6?

Originally Posted by lexusnyca
The problem is, many people who want an EV - only want a Tesla. It's like a buying cult. Sort of like what Toyota created with the Prius.
I can sort of see some evidence in this.

Originally Posted by lexusnyca
The other automakers are going to find out soon enough that they are overproducing EVs,.
I don’t know if they are overproducing them. There seems to be more demand than there is supply (of batteries). But I see the prices are just rising (which is not great for consumers)

Last edited by Toys4RJill; Oct 25, 2022 at 08:49 PM.
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