Correct, those who buy the base RWD are just looking for a cheap commuter, but Long Range and Performance buyers aren't looking to save money. Someone who is in the market for a Model 3 Performance would see a Model 2 as a downgrade...even if they have a performance version. It would be like someone who drives a Camry XSE V6 switching to a fully loaded Corolla XSE.

Someone like my daughter, who recently bought a Bolt EUV would be a candidate for a Model 2 (she was also cross shopping a Corolla/Civic)

exactly. Is there a breakdown for the model 3 to see how many RWD, vs dual motor vs performance sold? I would think the model 3 performance sales is miniscule compared to the other models.

I don't think Tesla breaks down those numbers by single motor vs dual motor. Also Long Range uses the same battery pack and motors as the Performance. Power is limited through software

No need to overthink this. If Tesla believed the Model 2 would cannibalize Model 3 sales they wouldn't have developed it. They have already shown they can scale Model 3 pricing close enough to the rumored 25K Model 2 entry point and with some decontenting and software limitations on range/performance that could be unlocked later for a premium they could attack that market without the billions in R&D and manufacturing spend for a new product line. They will expect some buyer overlap, but would not risk cannibalizing their volume vehicles.

Tesla believes the 2 and 3 can co-exist, and has the biggest vested interest in and 2 and 3 being able to co-exist.

There is no doubt in my mind they can co-exist. There is little reason a Model 3 buyer will want to downgrade. Higher end Sedan buyers will continue to buy the Model 3/S and SUV buyers will continue to buy Model Y/X. Entry level, first time buyers will flock to the Model 2. There's plenty of room for an entry level sedan

I'm probably out of the loop, you said they have shown they can scale model 3 pricing close enough to the promoted 25k model 2, can you explain?

Sure. Even before Tesla started their most aggressive pricing adjustments, the Model 3 has sold for as low as $35,000 and it's absolutely conceivable that a decontented and range-limited entry level model could sell for less than that today if Tesla wishes. Tesla has scaled production sufficiently to realize significant build cost advantages, and has sufficient margin to sell these for at or below $30,000 if it wished. And that's before you factor in any federal and state incentives. The $25,000 Model 3 is already here if you factor in available incentives in some locations. Tesla has made it very clear it prioritizes market share over margin, a wise strategy as the data shows that Tesla customers are far more likely than not to stick with the brand in future. The notion that Tesla could price the low end of the Model 3 within range of the rumored price targets for the Model 2 is entirely reasonable.

But my broad point remains that Tesla wouldn't build the Model 2 if they believed it would cannibalize Model 3 sales. Tesla is in the business of aggressively targeting the market share of others, not diluting its own.

what 'content' do you think they could remove from a 3 at this point? rear seats? :D

like where? looks like the cheapest place in the nation you could get a model 3 (with 18" wheels) is colorado at 28130 (including 7500 federal and 5000 state).

source: https://insideevs.com/news/692133/ch...-tesla-modely/

do we even know what a 2 will be like? is it a small 3 or a small y? i figure there would be far more market for a cuv than a sedan. corolla may sell a ton but in europe for example, tall hatchbacks or dozens or brands and models sell by the zillion.

There were posts on the forum over the summer that talked about the potential to get a Model 3 RWD in California for around 23K after myriad incentives were factored in. There were counterpoints from members like me who pointed out that it took a very specific set of circumstances for that 23K Model 3 to be possible, but it was indeed possible if you could check all the right boxes. But above all, it shows that there are indeed ways to get the Model 3 down to the rumored price of the Model 2.

*** Let's not lose sight of the fact, however, that the reason I brought up the possibility of Model 2/Model 3 price overlap in the first place was as evidence that Tesla themselves see separate and distinct markets for the 2 and 3 and that Tesla, like me, thinks that they can and will co-exist rather than compete. The point being if you want to offer a 25K to 30K car, it's one hell of a lot cheaper for Tesla to price flex the Model 3 than it is for them to design, develop and build a whole new Model 2. So the fact that Tesla is doing just that shows they expect it to be accretive to their revenue/margin and not dilute their revenue/margin. ***

The Model 2 will certainly take some 3 market share, but will open up a far bigger, untapped market. Corolla/Civic buyers. In Monterrey, an educated upper scale area, the car could flourish. India. Ever heard of the China car market?
And remember, market share is leverage. Margin strength is leverage and the Model 2 will employ everything Tesla has learned about efficiency.

Of course my crystal ball is as cloudy as anyone else's...

While researching the latest SW release online, I ran across this little bit of info. I really hope it doesn't come to this.

Tesla Prepares to Turn the Heated Front Seats and Wipers into Paid Features

I don't use heated seats, so middle finger to that. If Elon thinks I'm paying to use my wipers, I guess I'll be using my mostly unused X account to SPAM him with my discontent at that stupidity. If this is even true

You can bet your bottom dollar that was included in the code release precisely so someone "discovers" it and posts about it so Tesla can gauge reaction.

Of course with this particular thing being related to Tesla, there will no doubt be a surprisingly large contingent of people on forums who will find ways to spin heated seat and heated wiper subscriptions as a positive, and declare it to be ground breaking genius ;)

Even BMW gave up on the idea of a monthly seat heater subscription

I'm not among one of those. It's one thing paying for premium data services or even a performance upgrade, but to heat your seats and use your windshield wipers? What kind of sick joke is that??