bitkahuna

iTrader: (20)

there is of course much talk on CL on where vehicles are made, and where brands are headquartered (the two things have little connection any longer). Bmw builds vehicles in over a dozen countries for example and is the largest u.s. *exporter* of vehicles.

in the past few decades, china’s economy has seen vast growth and a resulting vast rise in demand for vehicles. seizing the opporunity, non-chinese brands have imported and made factories and joint ventures. china's car market is enormous.

now then chinese govt is providing heavy incentives for electric cars and there are a dozen start ups there, including nio, which delivered about 14k vehicles last year i believe, and is launching a very mainstream looking suv this year and has 'big' plans. 60 minutes just did a piece on them and they're already publicly traded on nyse.

as more and more non-chinese players make vehicles there, and more and more chinese 'domestic' players come up, the inevitable EXPORT of those vehicles will happen. the numbers are undeniable. we will have naysayers who believe china could 'never' build a decent car, but they said the same thing about japan once upon a time, and then s. korea... and there will be (mostly older) consumers who say they would 'never' own a vehicle made in china. well more power to 'em but a huge part of the public really won't care.

so i believe in 10 years or less, a big chunk (25% maybe?) of vehicles sold in the u.s. will be made in china. this will have the usual 'consequences' to u.s. auto jobs, which then becomes a circular 'down the drain' action for u.s. domestic factories except for those that are HIGHLY efficient and competitive.

what say you?

Toys4RJill

mmarshall

I don't think Trump is going to let that happen. First of all, as of now, I think the chances of his re-election in 2020 are better than 50/50 (and his survival in office until then), so you are talking (probably) at least another six years of this administration and its tariffs. Second, Trump is not George Bush, Bill Clinton, or Barrack Obama....he understands the critical need to bring back auto-plant jobs to the U.S. (and preferably to the Rust Belt, which lost huge numbers of those jobs). Third, he is not fazed by political pressure or globalists....he is the type of leader who will keep tariffs in place once he has implemented them. Sooner or later, although we have seen only limited effects up to now, now, the tariffs will have the effect they were intended to have.....drive up production costs of Chinese-made vehicles to the point were domestic manufacturers will have no choice but to transfer the jobs and plants back home. They have resisted, but will not be able to resist forever.

situman

I think the reality will be somewhere in the middle. As junky as the korean cars were back in the 80's, sizable amounts of people bought them and allowed them to grow. The same will happen with the chinese branded cars.

Toys4RJill

mmarshall

I disagree, though not necessarily because of me or my opinions...I'm talking about the security of the country itself. The country itself simply has no choice, and cannot afford to lose more auto jobs. It is a question of long term survival....either the auto jobs come back, or we lose our manufacturing capability at home and are completely at the mercy of other nations.

This is not necessarily an out-and-out prediction, but don't be surprised to see Trump declare the loss of auto-jobs a national emergency, just like he did wth uncontrolled illegal immigration.

However, I do see the prospect of Chinese-branded vehicles sold here in the U.S. if Geely and the other Chinese companies do what the Japanese and Koreans did......build plants here in the U.S. and hire American workers.

stasek

Benoit

Peoples are easy to foresee in certain things. He's referring to a clear behavior of the masses. We already had all of this, twice. As said, with Japan first, then with Korea now. Both did great and became great.

Chocolate

Sounds like you already know the answer of how people will respond.

Johnhav430

Based on some of the arguments here, it sounds like it will be similar to shooting fish in a barrel for the Chinese. I would say there are some things where we care where things are made, and others where we do not. For example, would an all union skyscraper construction site picket when the 98" monitors being installed are made in China? I can tell you no, they were installing them when I was there a few weeks ago. Would it then be ok to drive a Japanese or Chinese vehicle to work, and park it on the employee lot? I can tell you that would not be acceptable.

If the Tsunami is coming, then why not get out ahead of the curb and invest in it? I don't see it happening. Do I see Buick Envisions happening, maybe, maybe not. But that to me depends on their demand, not the USA's demand.

Johnhav430

Isn't it funny though? I bet you that as people we are one way on a forum, and quite another at work. lol

I made a prediction yesterday at work, because a millenial (I don't blame them for everything, I really don't, but I see a recurring pattern) blew off a complaint that an internal customer made. I told my boss what's going to happen, is that T** is going to bring A**** into the loop, who will come back and say resolve it, while copying D****. If it were me, I'd make T** happy and not have it escalate, seeing as D**** is at the president level (sr vps are a dime a dozen, but not presidents nor c level).

What happened at 14:00 EST, the **** hit the fan and I told my boss, I seem to be able to predict the future I ought to buy some more securities. It's all about skin in the game, we know a lot when there isn't much.

mmarshall

Only if those Chinese-designed vehicles are actually built in this country, with American labor. This is not the days of the Bricklin any more. Though there are still some holdouts among the population, most Americans are more aware, now, of the dangers of shipping all of our auto-jobs overseas...and what it has done to American workers. And price-stickers, unlike the days of the Bricklin, are now required to list Country-of-Origin, Parts-Content, and Final-Assembly.

Because of Trump's tariffs (which, IMO, are long overdue), the Chinese will no longer be able to sell vehicles in America at rock-bottom prices...at least until we have another President.

All4Lexus

The electrification and cleaner emissions pushes are taking a serious priority in China and Europe. This makes the market for the future. Consider $60B in infrastructure and manufacturing investments in Europe. Either we lead or we follow, and the way we value cleaner emissions is paving the way for self destruction in our auto business. Tesla will survive as a global product. Not so sure about the rest of the Big 3 and it's gas loving fossil burning products. The sense of urgency isn't there for management to do things differently other than to burn more gas. The best answer our government has been to cut emissions rules and phase out or do away with any EV incentives. It's really a sad state of affairs that focuses too much on the short term window instead of a long one.

It means we will gradually get owned by China and Europe and may be lucky to manufacture their best selling products here on US soil or import them here (because our mfg skill sets do not compete). For years, our government have been pushing at alternative gas options (hydrogen, LNG) to make use of existing petrol infrastructures. It's taken a perfect storm of market conditions and technology for Tesla to rise up. Instead of addressing the opportunity to re-invent EV vehicles and infrastructure, the auto lobby wants to start rewriting the rules protecting the dealer/franchise infrastructure within our states to permit online sales of existing vehicles. Really? The greatest growth opportunities lies ahead and we refuse to embrace it (hint hint our union of 50+ states is part of the problem, and a national/federal direction is required). The last greatest success of a nationalized issue was how we made the transition to digital TV in early 2000's. We can still have a great 21st century transportation infrastructure if we want it. If we need it, it may already be too late.

coolsaber

Interestingly the next Model 3 competitor is the Polestar 2. Apparently all production will occur in China, and then exported elsewhere. FWIW its Volvo's standalone performance brand, which I assume follows under the Geely umbrella

Nio the electric car startup making billion dollar waves, just cancelled a new factory.

Everyday a new story about chinese made vehicles either prepared to launch or prepared to be cancelled I assume

bitkahuna

iTrader: (20)

I just read that there’s 486 EV (electric vehicle) companies in China!! They ain’t all going to make it. More here.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...sting-in-china

And this... Toyota, Fiat Chrysler, Honda and Mitsubishi will all sell the same car there, not made by any of them, to get in the market! The four carmakers all plan to sell an electrified SUV developed by Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., the Chinese manufacturing partner they share. Each brand will have their own name emblazoned at the rear of the car, but the look will be the same. More here.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...na-s-new-rules

No wonder there’s so much panic, rumors of mergers, cutting models, etc., at ‘traditional’ car makers.