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Those who lease: thoughts on Model 3 Lease (details included)

 
Old 04-19-19, 06:18 AM
  #31  
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Originally Posted by LexsCTJill View Post
I am not trying to turn this into a lease vs buy discussion. I don't think it is possible to compare the cost of a 3 years of leasing to owning an older vehicle. The reason is, you are going to have to have a vehicle after your 3 years lease is up. I think it is fundamentally impossible to not look at the long term costs of leasing.


I simply do not understand why are just looking at the short term 3 years. What are you going to do after your 3 year lease is up?
Look back at my original post that shows the very real probability that the true cost of leasing the model 3 (which I'm defining as "my additional expense compared to keeping my LS") over the next 3 years is somewhere around $10,000. If I have one or two of the relatively common things go bad on my LS, that delta could be as low as $5,000. That's how I look at the situation - in 3 years, even with a lease where I have to turn the car in and own nothing, it may only have cost me $5k more vs. keeping my LS. Look at the first post and the math associated with it and tell me where I'm wrong.
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Old 04-19-19, 06:27 AM
  #32  
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Originally Posted by jrmckinley View Post
Look at the first post and the math associated with it and tell me where I'm wrong.
Your mathematics is not wrong. But it is just based on three years, it s a short window. Are you looking at this from the viewpoint of leasing the Tesla S and also keeping the LS that you currently drive? Or would you be trading in your LS? Sounds like you want to use some of the operational costs of your LS and use it towards the lease of a Tesla 3

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Old 04-19-19, 06:38 AM
  #33  
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Originally Posted by LexsCTJill View Post
Your mathematics is not wrong. But it is just based on three years, it s a short window. Are you looking at this from the viewpoint of leasing the Tesla S and also keeping the LS that you currently drive? Or would you be trading in your LS?
In this case, I would sell my LS now in exchange for getting the Model 3. The window of time being "short" is not really relevant in my eyes - I have to look at the window of time of the lease, calculate those expenses, calculate the savings of having EV over ICE, and then factor in the anticipated costs and depreciation of my LS over the same time period.

In essence, it's a flat comparison of "total cost of ownership" for 3 years in my 2010 LS (keeping it until 2022) at which point I would get something different vs. getting something different now and keeping that for 3 years and all associated costs. The question is if it's worth it to me to pay $10k over the course of 3 years to have a new EV. If I started a company where I could use the Model 3 as part of a business, it could easily be a break-even given the tax benefits and write-offs.

If you've ever sold or traded in an old car that you own outright and get slightly depressed thinking "that's all it's worth?", it makes for an interesting exercise of what I've laid out in this thread.
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Old 04-19-19, 06:51 AM
  #34  
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Originally Posted by jrmckinley View Post
In this case, I would sell my LS now in exchange for getting the Model 3. The window of time being "short" is not really relevant in my eyes - I have to look at the window of time of the lease, calculate those expenses, calculate the savings of having EV over ICE, and then factor in the anticipated costs and depreciation of my LS over the same time period.

In essence, it's a flat comparison of "total cost of ownership" for 3 years in my 2010 LS (keeping it until 2022) at which point I would get something different vs. getting something different now and keeping that for 3 years and all associated costs. The question is if it's worth it to me to pay $10k over the course of 3 years to have a new EV. If I started a company where I could use the Model 3 as part of a business, it could easily be a break-even given the tax benefits and write-offs.

If you've ever sold or traded in an old car that you own outright and get slightly depressed thinking "that's all it's worth?", it makes for an interesting exercise of what I've laid out in this thread.
You have a very interesting and complicated scenario IMO. Personally, I would trade or sell off privately (easier said then done) your LS and buy the Tesla 3.

Originally Posted by jrmckinley View Post
The window of time being "short" is not really relevant in my eyes - I have to look at the window of time of the lease, calculate those expenses, calculate the savings of having EV over ICE, and then factor in the anticipated costs and depreciation of my LS over the same time period.
I don't understand how it is not relevant. IMO, the issue is not about keeping your LS vs a Tesla. Its about how to go about acquiring the Tesla 3. If the short window is not relevant, what would do in year 4,5, 6 and so on when the 3 year lease is up?
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Old 04-19-19, 06:51 AM
  #35  
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jrmckinley... great video here on longer term 3 ownership and costs...

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Old 04-19-19, 07:03 AM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by LexsCTJill View Post
You have a very interesting and complicated scenario IMO. Personally, I would trade or sell off privately (easier said then done) your LS and buy the Tesla 3.



I don't understand how it is not relevant. IMO, the issue is not about keeping your LS vs a Tesla. Its about how to go about acquiring the Tesla 3. If the short window is not relevant, what would do in year 4,5, 6 and so on when the 3 year lease is up?
Yes, I would look to sell my LS and put that money in the bank and draw from it on the payments of the model 3 (if I chose to lease or finance). I don't think my situation is overly unique.

I keep trying to explain that year 4 is specifically factored in to my math. If my car is worth $5k in 2022, it's all part of the equation of this decision. I'm trying to say keeping my car vs. turning in a lease of a model 3 equates to somewhere around a $10k premium of selecting the Model 3. Not sure if it's my communication that is making this hard to comprehend, but I'm doing my best to clearly explain it. You seem focused on "you won't have a car at the end of the Model 3 lease" and I totally get that. But it's factored into my math.
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Old 04-19-19, 07:05 AM
  #37  
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Originally Posted by bitkahuna View Post
jrmckinley... great video here on longer term 3 ownership and costs...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6r5SRM2H3A
Actually watched that exact video earlier this week. Interesting to hear he found a shop that rotates tires on Teslas for free. And his monthly electrical increase is minimal.
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Old 04-19-19, 07:06 AM
  #38  
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Originally Posted by jrmckinley View Post
I totally get that. But it's factored into my math.
What will you do in year 4?
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Old 04-19-19, 07:06 AM
  #39  
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Originally Posted by LexsCTJill View Post
What will you do in year 4?
He'll get a new car. Not everyone wants to drive the same car until the wheels fall off
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Old 04-19-19, 07:13 AM
  #40  
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Originally Posted by LexsCTJill View Post
What will you do in year 4?
Well, as outlined in my first post, you can't buy out a leased model 3 so I would be forced to turn it in and get something else. But, why does it matter?

Edit: Sorry, I actually didn't mention it in my first post (I did in another thread on Tesla and got confused). But you can't buy out a leased model 3.
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Old 04-19-19, 07:26 AM
  #41  
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Originally Posted by jrmckinley View Post
Well, as outlined in my first post, you can't buy out a leased model 3 so I would be forced to turn it in and get something else. But, why does it matter?.
Doesn't matter to me. Leasing is a waste of a money long term, I have said that before. So I say, disregard/ignore and make not-relevant the long term thought and just pull the trigger and lease for 3 years.
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Old 04-19-19, 07:27 AM
  #42  
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Originally Posted by Allen K View Post
He'll get a new car. Not everyone wants to drive the same car until the wheels fall off
Where "New" = "different", yes. I could end up buying a 1980 Wagoneer after leasing the Model 3 for all I know.
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Old 04-19-19, 07:31 AM
  #43  
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Originally Posted by LexsCTJill View Post
Doesn't matter to me. Leasing is a waste of a money long term, I have said that before. So I say, disregard/ignore and make not-relevant the long term thought and just pull the trigger and lease for 3 years.
Possibly the most confusing post I've ever read.

"Leasing is a waste of money."

"Pull the trigger and lease."
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Old 04-19-19, 07:32 AM
  #44  
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Originally Posted by jrmckinley View Post
Possibly the most confusing post I've ever read.

"Leasing is a waste of money."

"Pull the trigger and lease."
Because you are not acknowledging the long term costs of lease compounding over time vs buying. Nor are you looking at the interest paid over time vs buying... you keep saying 3 years is what you are looking at....so then lease.
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Old 04-19-19, 07:41 AM
  #45  
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Originally Posted by LexsCTJill View Post
Doesn't matter to me. Leasing is a waste of a money long term, I have said that before.
yes, many times.

not everyone (in fact most) don't like to keep cars a long time (say 6+ yrs).

obviously that's not you. you like to keep cars a long long time, and that's absolutely your decision and to be respected. but please don't say leasing is a waste of money, because not everyone's situation or goals or wants is the same as you. live and let live, huh?

and as is clear, the economics of car ownership is not that simple, and not as simple as dave ramsey would point out. sure if we all bought corollas and drove them until the wheels fall off we'd almost certainly spend less money than buying or leasing an expensive vehicle every 3 years! but i at least certainly don't want to drive a compact car for a month let alone years and years.

and electric ownership/leasing is changing the equations entirely, where a lot of cost is up front, but running costs are peanuts. i don't really know what depreciation/used prices on electrics is like or will be like, but that's another factor.

but we should all open our eyes to realizing the entire auto industry is changing and what might have been true 5 years ago may not be true at all now or ever again. or you can choose to stay in your 'box' of thought, not considering that there might be other valid points of view.
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