No diesel: A costly revolution the car companies could do without
02-27-18, 07:26 PM
#1
Lexus Champion
Thread Starter
No diesel: A costly revolution the car companies could do without
Source: The Globe and Mail
This article puts into focus the imminent death of diesel cars (even in Germany) that will force the quick introduction of electrified vehicles.
A German court has now allowed German cities to ban diesel cars...
...hastened by Dieselgate.
Look at how quickly market share of diesel vehicles has fallen, from 48% to 39% in 2 years, leading at least 2 automakers to plan giving up on diesel cars altogether in the near future.
Toyota has few diesel cars, relying on its hybrid models in Europe. Because diesel has not been popular in Japan, the Japanese automakers invested very little in diesel.
Look at how expensive Dieselgate has been...
...only to climb higher as VW, and the other German and European automakers try to redeem themsel with electrified vehicles.
Electrified vehicles are still a big risk and we may lose some automakers -- bankrupt and/or merged into other, larger conglomerates. I do not believe that we will lose the German automakers. The British automakers have already been swallowed by others. I believe that we may lose some French automakers or they will all be merged into Renault. Fiat is probably a goner but I do not know who may want it as a whole or split up into its individual brands.
Automakers headquartered outside of Europe, with (much) less investment in diesel, will likely survive.
This article puts into focus the imminent death of diesel cars (even in Germany) that will force the quick introduction of electrified vehicles.
A German court has now allowed German cities to ban diesel cars...
Diesel is dying, fast. It's good news for anyone who lives in cities choking on the soot and nitrogen dioxide spewed out by cars with diesel engines. It's bad news for the German car industry, whose rise was built on the back of the diesel engine.
On Tuesday, diesel's fortunes took another blow, a severe one this time, when a national court in Leipzig ruled that Stuttgart and Dusseldorf have the right to ban diesel cars. The decision upholds earlier decisions taken in lower courts, which were appealed.
The ruling will have far-reaching consequences for the German and global auto industries, all the more so since other cities could follow the example set by Stuttgart and Dusseldorf. The diesel cash cow is on its last legs. Auto makers will have to develop clean-propulsion technology much faster than they had expected only a few years ago and the price tag will be astronomical.
The Leipzig ruling was made on human health grounds. Last year, about 70 German cities failed to meet European Union pollution-level standards. The lower courts had argued that banning diesel cars from cities would be the most effective way to bring down pollution levels in a hurry, even if it meant harming car owners' rights.
The very newest diesel cars should be able to able to pass muster. The older ones are probably doomed, unless they are treated to expensive retrofits that neither the car owners nor the car manufacturers would by happy to fund. The value of secondhand diesel cars – roughly half the German fleet – is set to plummet.
On Tuesday, diesel's fortunes took another blow, a severe one this time, when a national court in Leipzig ruled that Stuttgart and Dusseldorf have the right to ban diesel cars. The decision upholds earlier decisions taken in lower courts, which were appealed.
The ruling will have far-reaching consequences for the German and global auto industries, all the more so since other cities could follow the example set by Stuttgart and Dusseldorf. The diesel cash cow is on its last legs. Auto makers will have to develop clean-propulsion technology much faster than they had expected only a few years ago and the price tag will be astronomical.
The Leipzig ruling was made on human health grounds. Last year, about 70 German cities failed to meet European Union pollution-level standards. The lower courts had argued that banning diesel cars from cities would be the most effective way to bring down pollution levels in a hurry, even if it meant harming car owners' rights.
The very newest diesel cars should be able to able to pass muster. The older ones are probably doomed, unless they are treated to expensive retrofits that neither the car owners nor the car manufacturers would by happy to fund. The value of secondhand diesel cars – roughly half the German fleet – is set to plummet.
In 2015, Volkswagen became a German national embarrassment and international pariah when it admitted to having rigged about 11 million diesel engines to pump out false readings in environmental tests. The engines were much worse polluters than advertised. So far, the bill for the "dieselgate" lawsuits and fines has reached US$25-billion. As a fuel, diesel was suddenly a bad word.
Meanwhile, Paris and other big European cities were announcing plans to ban diesel cars in the next decade or so and German courts were listening to arguments from environmentalists extolling the virtues of diesel-free city centres. The landmark ruling is a blow to the business model of the German car makers.
Meanwhile, Paris and other big European cities were announcing plans to ban diesel cars in the next decade or so and German courts were listening to arguments from environmentalists extolling the virtues of diesel-free city centres. The landmark ruling is a blow to the business model of the German car makers.
Even before Tuesday's decision, diesel was in near freefall in Germany.
In 2015, diesel accounted for 48 per cent of the market. Last year, the figure was 39 per cent. The decline can only accelerate. Note that Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, led by Italian-Canadian chief executive Sergio Marchionne, plans to kill off diesel cars by 2022, according to a Financial Times report, evidently because the cost of developing much cleaner diesel engines will be murderous. Toyota, for its part, has said it is unlikely to launch another diesel model.
In 2015, diesel accounted for 48 per cent of the market. Last year, the figure was 39 per cent. The decline can only accelerate. Note that Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, led by Italian-Canadian chief executive Sergio Marchionne, plans to kill off diesel cars by 2022, according to a Financial Times report, evidently because the cost of developing much cleaner diesel engines will be murderous. Toyota, for its part, has said it is unlikely to launch another diesel model.
Look at how expensive Dieselgate has been...
For the German car makers, scandal-tainted VW especially, the Leipzig court ruling could not come at a worse time. They face only gruesomely expensive options. At some point fairly soon, they will have to decide whether retrofit about nine million German diesel cars built before September, 2015, when the latest EU emissions standards (known as Euro 6) came into force. According to analysts at Evercore ISI, the price of cleaning up the entire German diesel fleet would range from €15-billion ($23.4-billion) to €29-billion.
At they same time, they will have to accelerate their electrification drive, a gamble given that battery technology is expensive and consumer acceptance of electric vehicles is, so far, underwhelming; their market share is only about 1 per cent, although various estimates say they will take up between 5 per cent and 10 per cent by 2025. Development costs are the big issue. VW alone plans to spend €20-billion on 80 new electric car models, and another €14-billion on autonomous cars and shared mobility, by 2025.
Automakers headquartered outside of Europe, with (much) less investment in diesel, will likely survive.
Throw in the cost of dieselgate and VW faces a damages and development bill of almost €60-billion in the next few years. So much could go wrong. Potential problems range from the severe shortage of cobalt needed to build car batteries – the smartphone market isn't going to give up its cobalt supplies easily – to the lack of a breakthrough in battery technology that would allow cars to travel long distances before recharging.
The price of ditching diesel and developing electric cars in a hurry might be unaffordable to some car makers, even a few of the biggies. As the bills pile up, more mergers are inevitable as investor returns diminish. The death of diesel is triggering a revolution, but it's not a revolution that the car companies, or their shareholders, wanted.
The price of ditching diesel and developing electric cars in a hurry might be unaffordable to some car makers, even a few of the biggies. As the bills pile up, more mergers are inevitable as investor returns diminish. The death of diesel is triggering a revolution, but it's not a revolution that the car companies, or their shareholders, wanted.
02-27-18, 07:56 PM
#2
Lexus Fanatic
Personally, I don't think courts should be sticking their noses into questions of what kinds of vehicles will be allowed where. IMO, that is best done by popular referendum. That way, both diesel-proponents, those who want them banned, and those with positions somewhere in the middle (like mine would probably be) can have their say.
And.....as far as the 2015 EU standard goes, this is exactly why the Brexit vote in Britain succeeded....a majority of the public was tired of being dictated to by an organization with bureaucrats that they did not vote for.
And.....as far as the 2015 EU standard goes, this is exactly why the Brexit vote in Britain succeeded....a majority of the public was tired of being dictated to by an organization with bureaucrats that they did not vote for.
02-27-18, 09:01 PM
#3
Lexus Champion
I don't think this would turn out well. We've already seen what happens when auto makers are not regulated, they made gas guzzling death traps. IMO auto regulations are one of the rare cases where said regulations actually benefit the consumer and industry.
02-27-18, 10:15 PM
#4
Lexus Fanatic
Agreed, but I wasn't talking about how cars are designed and built. I was talking about where they are formally allowed to operate.
02-28-18, 02:39 AM
#5
Super Moderator
Personally, I don't think courts should be sticking their noses into questions of what kinds of vehicles will be allowed where. IMO, that is best done by popular referendum. That way, both diesel-proponents, those who want them banned, and those with positions somewhere in the middle (like mine would probably be) can have their say.
See the third sentence of the article:
On Tuesday, diesel's fortunes took another blow, a severe one this time, when a national court in Leipzig ruled that Stuttgart and Dusseldorf have the right to ban diesel cars.
02-28-18, 03:59 AM
#6
What you're proposing is EXACTLY what is happening. Up until now, such local referendums have been illegal. The courts have now ruled that cities have the right to hear arguments and decide what vehicles they'll allow to operate inside their limits.
See the third sentence of the article:
See the third sentence of the article:
While diesel is going away, it is very, very slow death... new Audi A6 that just got announced has 2.0 TDI as main engine option and no 2.0l petrol engine.
Cities usually ban older EuroIV and possibly these days EuroV diesels, but not all of the diesels. No city plans to ban EuroVI diesels.
So dont buy into it too much... for anything larger than Golf, diesel death will go on for a long, long time.
What is going to speed up adoption of petrols and hybrids in Europe is strict EuroVI rules with testing that fully come into play in 2019. This will mean that A and B city class vehicles will simply not have any diesels in offer, because they would cost too much... But I am pretty sure that new Golf will still have a diesel as main engine.
02-28-18, 06:46 AM
#7
What needs to be said is that many german cities already banned vehicles from entering based on their emissions.
While diesel is going away, it is very, very slow death... new Audi A6 that just got announced has 2.0 TDI as main engine option and no 2.0l petrol engine.
Cities usually ban older EuroIV and possibly these days EuroV diesels, but not all of the diesels. No city plans to ban EuroVI diesels.
.
While diesel is going away, it is very, very slow death... new Audi A6 that just got announced has 2.0 TDI as main engine option and no 2.0l petrol engine.
Cities usually ban older EuroIV and possibly these days EuroV diesels, but not all of the diesels. No city plans to ban EuroVI diesels.
.
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/n...-a8-cabin-tech
As you say though the death of diesel is a long way off at this point. I certainly wouldn't swop my Euro VI diesel for a petrol option at this point.
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02-28-18, 08:03 AM
#8
Lexus Fanatic
Agreed. If a city wants to ban diesel, I am all for it.
02-28-18, 10:09 AM
#9
Lexus Champion
IMO, it's mainly large trucks that are the offenders, not a 335d.
02-28-18, 11:48 AM
#10
Lexus Fanatic
Well, you're correct about the large trucks, but as far as diesel-fuel's odor goes, the low-sulfur diesel fuel that we've had in the U.S. since 2005 (more or less similar to that sold in Europe) is far cleaner-burning than the old nose-offensive-stuff. That's one reason why diesel-manufacturers have been able to develop the extremely precise/high-pressure common-rail/Bluetec/TDI systems that basically start, run, and emit like gas engines....though VW showed that sometimes unacceptable short-cuts were also taken.
02-28-18, 11:51 AM
#11
Lexus Fanatic
iTrader: (20)
was just in uk and seemed like almost every vehicle was a diesel. so yes, a loooooooong way to go. 
02-28-18, 02:45 PM
#12
Lexus Champion
Thread Starter
Environmental campaigners had sued German cities to get them to cut air pollution. The German states of Baden-Wuerttemberg (where Stuttgart is located) and North Rhine-Westphalia (where Dusseldorf is located) appealed the lower court ruling to the higher court in Leipzig but the higher court upheld the ruling.
A German court has ruled cities can impose driving bans on the oldest and most polluting diesel cars, in a landmark ruling hailed “a victory for clean air”.
The decision could lead to millions of drivers in Germany having to switch to cleaner cars, or use alternative forms of transport, on days when harmful emissions are particularly high.
Courts in Stuttgart and Dusseldorf had earlier ruled that a ban on diesel cars – of which there are around 15 million in Germany – would be effective, and should be considered.
That decision was appealed by two German states - Baden-Wuerttemberg and North Rhine-Westphalia - but in a court ruling on Tuesday the Federal Administrative Court in Leipzig approved the right for cities to implement a ban.
Judges said the two cities at the centre of the case can include diesel bans in their clean air plans, but have to ensure that any measures are proportionate to the goal of reducing emissions to the legal limit.
The action came after environmental campaigners had sued dozens of German cities, arguing that they have a duty to cut excessive air pollution to protect people’s health.
Germany has persistently broken EU rules on levels of air pollution, with the country’s environment minister, Barbara Hendricks, called to Brussels last month to answer questions.
The decision could lead to millions of drivers in Germany having to switch to cleaner cars, or use alternative forms of transport, on days when harmful emissions are particularly high.
Courts in Stuttgart and Dusseldorf had earlier ruled that a ban on diesel cars – of which there are around 15 million in Germany – would be effective, and should be considered.
That decision was appealed by two German states - Baden-Wuerttemberg and North Rhine-Westphalia - but in a court ruling on Tuesday the Federal Administrative Court in Leipzig approved the right for cities to implement a ban.
Judges said the two cities at the centre of the case can include diesel bans in their clean air plans, but have to ensure that any measures are proportionate to the goal of reducing emissions to the legal limit.
The action came after environmental campaigners had sued dozens of German cities, arguing that they have a duty to cut excessive air pollution to protect people’s health.
Germany has persistently broken EU rules on levels of air pollution, with the country’s environment minister, Barbara Hendricks, called to Brussels last month to answer questions.
Pundits are saying that this could mean the death of diesel cars. Of course, with so many diesel cars on European roads, it will take some time before all diesel cars are gone, but nevertheless, the end of new diesel car production may be near.
02-28-18, 02:52 PM
#13
Lexus Champion
These moves may seem small right now but once the problem of diesel emissions becomes urgent enough, cities will act. Rome has announced it wants its city center to be diesel free by 2024 due to the damage to ancient monuments from the exhaust emissions. The problem with other sorts of measures is that they didn't entirely do what they were supposed to do.
In Rome there was a laxly enforced law that had banned older vehicles with higher emissions which didn't do much due to traffic police not enforcing it. Then there was the even/odd license plate rule and all people did was buy an older second vehicle with the corresponding even/odd plate to their main vehicle for use. But a blanket ban may be the only way in some cities.
Milan apparently also wants to ban diesels by 2030.
In Rome there was a laxly enforced law that had banned older vehicles with higher emissions which didn't do much due to traffic police not enforcing it. Then there was the even/odd license plate rule and all people did was buy an older second vehicle with the corresponding even/odd plate to their main vehicle for use. But a blanket ban may be the only way in some cities.
Milan apparently also wants to ban diesels by 2030.
02-28-18, 02:55 PM
#14
Lexus Champion
Thread Starter
Agreed. There is a terribly sickly-sweet smell to diesel exhaust that I cannot stand.
Agreed, but for North America. Diesel cars sold in North America are incredibly clean (thanks to the EPA and CARB) and diesel-powered cars are relatively few in number, so diesel trucks are the main pollution offenders in North America.
But in Europe, where diesel exhaust emissions standards have long been much more lenient than what we have in the United States and Canada, and they have long favoured diesel cars for their low CO2 emissions (due to greater fuel efficiency than gasoline-powered vehicles), there are a lot of highly-polluting diesel cars.
Agreed, but for North America. Diesel cars sold in North America are incredibly clean (thanks to the EPA and CARB) and diesel-powered cars are relatively few in number, so diesel trucks are the main pollution offenders in North America.
But in Europe, where diesel exhaust emissions standards have long been much more lenient than what we have in the United States and Canada, and they have long favoured diesel cars for their low CO2 emissions (due to greater fuel efficiency than gasoline-powered vehicles), there are a lot of highly-polluting diesel cars.
02-28-18, 07:24 PM
#15
Super Moderator