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Automakers Bail on Russia Following Ruble’s Collapse

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Old 12-31-14, 07:26 AM
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Default Automakers Bail on Russia Following Ruble’s Collapse



On the heels of the Russian ruble experiencing an unprecedented collapse, international businesses — including some American companies — are taking action to protect their interests. That has included some of the world’s largest and most premiere auto manufacturing companies, like General Motors, Audi, and Jaguar Land Rover, all of whom have suspended sales in Russia following the recent economic troubles. It’s unclear how long these manufacturers have decided to stop Russian sales, as company leadership likely decides how they are each going to move forward.

Russia’s currency has dropped by as much as 40% in value since this past summer, as Bloomberg reports, and the result has been the biggest financial crisis the country has experienced since the late 1990s. In an effort to hedge their bets on the falling value of the ruble, many Russians had actually taken to dealerships in an effort to invest in something tangible, in the event that the ruble continues its free fall. As The Cheat Sheet has covered previously, Porsche sales jumped 55% in November, and Lexus also saw significant sales gains.

“In times of crisis, people view cars as an investment,” Andrei Rodionov, head of corporate communications at Mercedes-Benz’s Russian unit told Bloomberg. “The rule of thumb that a car loses 20% of its value once it leaves the showroom isn’t valid anymore.”

That sentiment was shared by Tatyana Lukovetskaya, chief executive officer of Rolf Group, one of Russia’s largest auto dealers. “Cars, no matter budget or premium, are being sold like hotcakes currently,” she said. “We can’t recall such a boom in the market over the past decade.” As a whole, Russian auto sales took a dip of 1.1%, despite the jumps in the luxury segment.



Though wealthy Russians were able to hedge their bets by purchasing luxury cars, many others are finding themselves in dire straights. Russian president Vladimir Putin has laid out plans to return his nation’s economy to prosperity within a couple years, helping to calm the panic that has undoubtedly gripped many of Russia’s citizens.

“Our economy will overcome the current situation. How much time will be needed for that? Under the most unfavorable circumstances, I think it will take about two years,” he said, according to a report from The Huffington Post. Despite Putin’s confidence, there are still plenty of things that could go wrong. Not only that, but two years is a considerable amount of time, and that timeline may, in fact, panic Russian citizens even more. That panic, of course, could lead to huge drops in economic activity, as people hoard and save their money, rather than spending it.

Spending it on things like cars.

That lack of spending poses a significant risk to the business operations of the world’s automakers. General Motors, for example, even cited that as the very reason they were suspending operations in Russia. “In view of the volatility of ruble exchange rate and with the aim to manage its business risk, GM Russia has decided to temporarily suspend wholesaling of vehicles to its dealers in Russia as of Dec. 16,” read a statement from Opel, a European-based GM brand, according to NBC News. Russian GM dealers sell Cadillac, Chevrolet, and Opel brand vehicles, and for now, shipments of vehicles to those dealers has ceased.

That concern to business risk isn’t even relegated to the auto market only, as even tech companies like Apple have opted to stop online sales of products, including iPads and iPhones, to Russian customers as well.



All in all, this is a bad situation for car companies. Russia’s set of circumstances presents them with a loss of a potential market, and while the scramble to purchase luxury cars was a spike in sales for certain companies, soon it’s going to hit everyone’s bottom line. Some companies, mostly Asian manufacturers, had previously made big bets on the Russian market, and are now likely panicking in the fallout of the ruble’s collapse. Reuters says that Nissan, Hyundai, and Kia have all made considerable investments in trying to tap Russia as an area for expansion, and are now in a precarious position.

Given the current situation, some of those manufacturers, like Kia, are instead shipping vehicles to other European markets to try and curb their losses. “We are trying to minimize losses by redirecting vehicles to other European countries,” a Kia official told Reuters.

One fair question to ask is whether or not these kind of business decisions — namely, to stop shipping vehicles to dealers in economically troubled regions — has any sort of precedence. While it doesn’t appear that that’s the case, there likely are situations in which car companies have stopped shipping vehicles to areas experiencing some sort of crisis, whether it be war, economic collapse, or otherwise. But in the case of Russia, the whole situation presents some interesting circumstances.

In the wake of GM, Audi, and Jaguar Land Rover’s decision to pull the rip cord on vehicle shipments comes another question: Which automakers will be next to cease vehicle shipments? From an American standpoint, it will definitely be interesting to see what, if any, moves Ford makes. Ford has already had an extremely tough year in Russia, with sales slumping significantly and a series of a poor strategy decisions ultimately hurting the company.

The Guardian reports that Ford has already stopped sales, along with Honda and BMW. As time progresses, it appears that the Russian crisis will likely envelope the entire auto industry, probably ending with all, if not the vast majority of vehicle shipments being stopped. What could that mean for the industry as a whole? Will it lead to a domino effect that will have consequences that nobody could possibly predict? It’s possible, but for now, everything is incredibly uncertain.

Putin seems confident his country will get back on the rails relatively fast, but what actually happens could be a different story. For now, auto companies look like they’ll need to sit on their hands until some positive economic news makes its way to the headlines.
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Old 12-31-14, 07:27 AM
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Default Nissan CEO says suspending some Russia car orders in 'bloodbath' for automakers



(Reuters) - Japan's Nissan Motor Co (7201.T) and French partner Renault SA (RENA.PA) have stopped taking orders for some cars in Russia and could raise prices on others if the ruble's plunge continues, alliance Chief Executive Carlos Ghosn said on Friday.

"We have suspended taking orders," Ghosn told reporters at Nissan's headquarters in Yokohama, saying the freeze is limited to specific models while orders already placed are being honored. "We didn't do it (suspend orders) overall, just on some models we said, 'Sorry, until we see where this situation is going we don't take orders."

The Russian currency has tumbled about 50 percent against the dollar so far this year, putting pressure on automakers who have had to raise prices and contend with falling demand.

Nissan has already increased prices on half of models sold in Russia by 5 percent to 8 percent. Ghosn said Nissan had hiked prices on models that use higher levels of imported parts.

Russia is Nissan's fifth-largest market and the Japanese firm's alliance with Renault SA (RENA.PA), of which Ghosn is chairman and CEO, gives it a majority stake in Avtovaz OAO (AVAZ.MM), Russia's largest automaker.

Ghosn, who said Nissan and Renault were gaining market share in Russia, wants to grow their combined market share there to 40 percent from about 35 percent now.

The executive said he remained confident that the Russian market would "stabilize". Nissan this month announced plans to double production capacity at its St. Petersburg plant to 100,000 vehicles.

"The bad news is that the market is shrinking. This is bad news for everyone," Ghosn said. "When the rouble sinks it's a bloodbath for everybody. It's red ink, people are losing money, all car manufacturers are losing money."

The automaker aims to raise production in Russia to 90 percent of Nissan cars sold in the country by 2016, up from the current 70 percent.

Ghosn also praised Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's mix of economic and fiscal policies at the briefing. He said the now much weaker yen was no longer a "handicap", and the company planned to take advantage of the currency's drop and expand domestic production for exports.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0JX0LP20141219
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Old 12-31-14, 12:35 PM
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Well, Putin, was it worth it? You got Crimea...and were successful in stirring up trouble in Eastern Ukraine. Now Karma is tanking your economy....even your oil isn't helping.
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Old 12-31-14, 12:45 PM
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Ouch. The hemorrhaging continues and this is what you get for being a fool. The screws keep getting tighter.
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Old 12-31-14, 02:27 PM
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First Australia, now Russia. Meanwhile, Mexico, China and Brazil seem to be gaining steam
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Old 12-31-14, 09:10 PM
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Russia's economy is in bad shape, in large part, due to low oil prices. They export oil and they aren't making anywhere near what they used to. I'm sure the automakers will start targeting the US and China with huge SUV's because they make big profits on them and no one remembers when gas was approaching $5 a gallon just a few years ago. China loves big vehicles and the US has a short memory. When gas prices go up again everyone will be stuck crawling along in their Suburbans filling up their tanks for the cost of a mortgage payment.

Maybe Infiniti should try harder with Russia. I noticed a lot of FX's when I was in St. Petersburg, and they sure aren't making headway anywhere else.

Re: Putin...no comment. Karma is a *****.
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Old 12-31-14, 09:18 PM
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Man I feel sorry for those middle and lower class Russians just skimping by. They took this straight in the nuts if they didn't convert their rubles to dollars.

Which, if you didn't know, most Russians have so little faith even before the collapse of the ruble that they put their investments in foreign currency, mostly in the dollar. Which I don't blame them, considering how damn bad things were in the 90's.

As for Putin, well **** that guy, I hope there is another damn revolution in Russia. As much as it sounds hypocritical, "the Marshall plan" to conquer a nation and rebuild them in your image only works if they:

1. Strike you first, ie the official government and people are 100% united in their hatred and war on your country.

2. You completely demoralize and defeat these people. It really helps if they are not a deeply religious people. Its much easier to defeat a people who hold their ideals in a currently living man and his institution, ie Hitler, Hirohito, etc. Its impossible to defeat an idea or ideal based on the teachings of a long dead man, especially those teachings which have been warped to violence by certain radical philosophers, preachers, inmans, popes, etc

3. They are a united people who believe in one central government is the best way to serve their people.

As for Ukraine, I see none of these principles applying, so like Vietnam, Afghanstan, Iraq, this type of nation building is a waste of time, lives, and resources for Russia
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Old 12-31-14, 11:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Hoovey2411
First Australia, now Russia. Meanwhile, Mexico, China and Brazil seem to be gaining steam
China is actually selling less than expected... and i doubt AU is longterm, they just got off best years ever.

There are some confusing quotes from the article:

In times of crisis, people view cars as an investment,” Andrei Rodionov, head of corporate communications at Mercedes-Benz’s Russian unit told Bloomberg. “The rule of thumb that a car loses 20% of its value once it leaves the showroom isn’t valid anymore.”

That sentiment was shared by Tatyana Lukovetskaya, chief executive officer of Rolf Group, one of Russia’s largest auto dealers. “Cars, no matter budget or premium, are being sold like hotcakes currently,” she said. “We can’t recall such a boom in the market over the past decade.” As a whole, Russian auto sales took a dip of 1.1%, despite the jumps in the luxury segment.
Reason we see jump is due to falling rubble and unlike many other countries, Russia probably does not allow tieing the price to foreign currency, so people are seeing a chance to buy cars at up to 50% discounts, since majority (or all?) of Russians save money in USD, short term this is good for them.
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Old 01-01-15, 10:43 AM
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Loving this Karma.
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Old 01-01-15, 11:01 AM
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Originally Posted by spwolf



Reason we see jump is due to falling rubble and unlike many other countries, Russia probably does not allow tieing the price to foreign currency, so people are seeing a chance to buy cars at up to 50% discounts, since majority (or all?) of Russians save money in USD, short term this is good for them.
Well, yes....if they actually get a chance to do so. That was the whole topic of post #2, though, behind the OP......Until the currency-drop issue can be resolved, Nissan (and perhaps other automakers) simply aren't taking new-car orders any more from Russian dealerships, rather than lose money on each one.

Last edited by mmarshall; 01-01-15 at 11:18 AM.
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Old 01-01-15, 11:12 AM
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In Russia you don't control the economy, the economy controls you.
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Old 01-01-15, 11:42 AM
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even after all of this i believe Putin has a 80% approval rating.
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Old 01-01-15, 12:03 PM
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Originally Posted by gymratter
even after all of this i believe Putin has a 80% approval rating.
If Putin can manipulate elections, it's not surprising if he can also manipulate polls. After all, as KGB Chief, that was his JOB......to manipulate things.
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