Hoovey689

iTrader: (16)

Car Wars report predicts Hyundai, Kia will lose market share

The annual "Car Wars" report by Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy predicts that, despite their seizing of U.S. market share over the last few tumultuous years, Korean brands Hyundai and Kia will give it all back and then some to companies like Ford, General Motors and Toyota by 2016.

Murphy bases his predictions not on tea leaves or crystal *****, but rather the rate at which automakers launch new products. Ford will replace 26 percent of its product line over the next four years, a number that represents 46 percent of its volume, while General Motors will replace 25 percent and Toyota 24 percent. On account of these new product launches, Murphy says Ford can expect to add 0.8 percentage points of market share, General Motors will recover 0.5 points and Toyota will add another 0.3 points.

Other automakers that won't be so aggressive in turning over their lineups with new models include Chrysler, Honda, Nissan and the European brands, which Murphy surmises will all remain flat in terms of market share.

Hyundai and Kia, meanwhile, will be introducing fewer new models than the rest and therefore, Murphy predicts, will see a 0.5 decline in U.S. market share.

Of course, these are all just predictions and can be blown to bits with the next unforeseen economic crisis or natural disaster, just like the last three years were. And there are other factors that might affect market share for each automaker during the next three years, including the availability of raw materials, exchange rates, union contracts, recalls and a million another minor things that might grow to become big things, not the least of which is consumers deciding they actually like all those new products being launched.

http://www.autoblog.com/2012/05/18/c...-market-share/

speedflex

Pretty much a crapshoot as far as I'm concerned. Market analysts and forecasters get on my nerves.

IS350jet

.5%? OMG, that's huge!!!

mmarshall

It's not any real problem with Hyundai and Kia (although IMO the styling of some new Hyundai products s**ks), but simply the fact that American-badged carmakers finally seem to be getting their act together and producing better vehicles now. Chrysler/Dodge/Jeep, in particular, has made astounding improvements in the last couple of years....as has some GM products.

bitkahuna

iTrader: (20)

^^ yup - i wouldn't be surprised if they do lose some share.

Hoovey689

iTrader: (16)

yup. In doing so you close the distance in say quality, so no matter what make you buy from your almost guaranteed a similar reliability. Now of course there are some exceptions such as certain cars being more or less prone to things. (for example BMW high pressure fuel pumps). But suffice to say, the balance in reliability is pretty close these days. More so now because automakers know that do succeed by today's standards they can't produce crap

T0ked

iTrader: (2)

Everyone will lose shares. Many companies gained a lot from the Japanese disaster. I find it hilarious that these analysts and other market watchers do not discuss the fact that Toyota and Honda gave up market share not because there was no demand, but that supply was low. Those that benefited from Toyota not being able to supply enough cars well be giving back some numbers this year, and not just Hyundai. You think with Lexus back in full production that BMW well be able to hang on to number one? I seriously doubt it.

Hoovey689

iTrader: (16)

well at least not until the 13' ES hits lots. That thing is gonna fly

KillaIS250

iTrader: (1)

Yep the new GS is already selling pretty well...the next gen ES & RX will fly

I8ABMR

me too. Im not holding my breath. These guys are on a roll and I dont see it stopping any time soon

T0ked

iTrader: (2)

Lexus has an update to their entire bread and butter line up. Brand new ES (which looks absolutely gorgeous) and a face lifted RX which IMO looks so much better it might as well be new. With a new GS which looks great on the road (just saw three in one day in Westchester, NY where I live), There is no way Lexus won't be taking back the sales crown this year and next.

However, I don't think hyundai will give back shares easily. There were those studies showing hyundai with a very high brand loyalty and retention rate. Can't have both.