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I am going to go out on a limb here and make a huge prediction

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Old 02-03-10, 10:25 AM
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On a different note, I think pagemaster's predictions are a little bold and from an operational and logistics standpoint, have no chance of ever happening.

The thing that has been ringing in my ears ever since the floormat/accelerator problems is the fact that Akio Toyoda went to suppliers last month and told all of them to cut costs 30% or get out the door.

It's evident that the things that have happened have been steady slips in quality in one form or another, and as the accelerator and Tundra rust situations have proven, it is often a supplier. I don't see how any supplier could cut their bottom line by 30% overnight, as Akio is demanding, without a serious dip in quality somewhere along the line.

If you want to be the best, build the best, and sell the best, you also have to pay to have the best suppliers and workforce.
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Old 02-03-10, 10:33 AM
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Well a few points
1. Toyota does work with suppliers to find solutions. We will soon see if they are any good. They REALLY are going to have to innovate here.
2. The Yen is KILLING Toyota. The exchange ratio alone is hurting profits.
3. The field is so much more competitive. This is not ten years ago. In ten years we have seen Honda/Toyota go from head and shoulders above everyone to quite frankly average and sub-par in many areas.
4. Government motors. Hey they own two huge brands here, we cannot overlook that.

To Toyota and Honda's credit, they made quality a top job in the 1980s and continued in the 1990s. Their leading in quality woke up the entire industry. No one did this more than Lexus.

Today consumers are all better for it so people really should not be so quick to throw Toyota under the bus.
 
Old 02-03-10, 10:33 AM
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Originally Posted by MPLexus301
On a different note, I think pagemaster's predictions are a little bold and from an operational and logistics standpoint, have no chance of ever happening.
Did anyone every think Toyota would consolidate all Tundra production to Texas when they were building some Tundras in Indiana? This cost Toyota 1 billion to move all Tundra production to Texas after they started building the 2nd gen in Indiana.

Or how about Nummi? Did anyone ever think they would close that plant?

When all this pedal stuff is said and done, Toyota is going to take a huge hit on the perception and profitability front. If people think everything is going to go back to normal, they are wrong. Toyota is going to get hit very hard by this recall.

Toyota is going to have to respond after this.

It's evident that the things that have happened have been steady slips in quality in one form or another, and as the accelerator and Tundra rust situations have proven, it is often a supplier. I don't see how any supplier could cut their bottom line by 30% overnight, as Akio is demanding, without a serious dip in quality somewhere along the line.
The problem at Toyota is deeper than just simple quality. Its the overall management of North American productions. They are simply too big for their own good and need to get smaller.
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Old 02-03-10, 10:38 AM
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Originally Posted by pagemaster
Did anyone every think Toyota would consolidate all Tundra production to Texas when they were building some Tundras in Indiana? This cost Toyota 1 billion to move all Tundra production to Texas after they started building the 2nd gen in Indiana.

Or how about Nummi? Did anyone ever think they would close that plant?

When all this pedal stuff is said and done, Toyota is going to take a huge hit on the perception and profitability front. If people think everything is going to go back to normal, they are wrong. Toyota is going to get hit very hard by this recall.

Toyota is going to have to respond after this.



The problem at Toyota is deeper than just simple quality. Its the overall management of North American productions. They are simply too big for their own good and need to get smaller.
This was not limited to Toyota....all brands were trying to grow. Look at what happened to Porsche, they almost bought VW.

Seemingly NONE OF THEM could predict the fast coming recession. They were built on models of "fraud" from the banking industry. Things were NOT all okay as what was sold to us.

Everyone is suffering. This is not to say Toyota didn't make mistakes or went about things their non traditional way. It is what it is.
 
Old 02-03-10, 10:46 AM
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Originally Posted by 1SICKLEX
Everyone is suffering. This is not to say Toyota didn't make mistakes or went about things their non traditional way. It is what it is.
And I disagree here. It seems some car companies are trying to proactively change operations.

I give Honda some credit. They canned the S2000 and put the NSX on hold. It seems Honda is trying to ride of the storm right now.

GM and Ford got away from the minivans and did not redesign them. GM also said no to a new body on frame designed Envoy and instead build the crossovers...Toyota still make the 4runner and FJ as well as the GX...the GX should of went unibody like EVERY other luxury carmaker.....and lets not forget that Toyota has not one but TWO body of frame full sized SUV's in the LC and Sequoia....something has to give in order to pay for these facilities and that not operation with a profit..

Nissan pretty much have killed the Armada and Inifinit QX redesigns for North America and instead have sent the QX packing to be made alongside the Patrol in Japan

Lets not forget Toyota's major mis-calculated mistake of canceling the MR2 and Celica redesigns back in 2004....redesigns of the MR2 and Celica would of made good sense now that Hyundai is killing with the Genesis coupe, Camaro is around, Dodge has something and even Ford......oh yeah, Toyota sure does have the capacity to make 400,000 Tundras.
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Old 02-03-10, 10:50 AM
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Originally Posted by 1SICKLEX
2. The Yen is KILLING Toyota. The exchange ratio alone is hurting profits.
.
Toyota has jacked up the prices of Japanese built models to offset the exchange rate...have they not?
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Old 02-03-10, 10:52 AM
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Originally Posted by pagemaster
Did anyone every think Toyota would consolidate all Tundra production to Texas when they were building some Tundras in Indiana? This cost Toyota 1 billion to move all Tundra production to Texas after they started building the 2nd gen in Indiana.
No because the 2nd Gen Tundra was developed during strong economic times. Unfortunately at it's launch was the beginning of the economic downturn. No one expected this including Toyota. They made a forecast of the foreseeable future but the future is unpredictable and things can change in an instant.

Or how about Nummi? Did anyone ever think they would close that plant?
There was always that discussion in the past. Toyota is about making it lean and mean. When TMMBC came about, it was pretty obvious Toyota wanted to shift production of the Tacoma to a new plant which is more cost effective to operate and produce. NUMMI although a joint venture, was an expensive venture. The cost for them to produce one car there is a lot more than in one of their wholly owned factories.

When all this pedal stuff is said and done, Toyota is going to take a huge hit on the perception and profitability front. If people think everything is going to go back to normal, they are wrong. Toyota is going to get hit very hard by this recall.
That's not a surprise that Toyota is going to take a hit on it. A huge hit? Who knows. I firmly believe it's not enough for them to close up shop and ask for government support. Toyota is rich by the hundred billions possibly trillions. Think worldwide sales and profits over their 50+ years of existence.

The problem at Toyota is deeper than just simple quality. Its the overall management of North American productions. They are simply too big for their own good and need to get smaller.
I will agree with you they went a little overboard with producing new factories. But with the soaring demand they had in the late 90's early 2000's, they had to do what was logical, and expand operations to meet demand.
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Old 02-03-10, 10:56 AM
  #23  
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Originally Posted by pagemaster
Toyota has jacked up the prices of Japanese built models to offset the exchange rate...have they not?
At this point it is clear the rant prevents rational conclusions from being made. Prices go up and guess what, consumers don't like when prices go up. Thus volume goes down. Profits fall.

The yen doesn't just affect Toyota prices, it affects suppliers, forecasting (what markets to enter, what options to offer) and it gives the competition an opportunity to attack.

Look at Hyundai, the won is allowing them to stay aggresive. If they did not have that advantage, Hyundai would not be anywhere were they are today.

This is off course similar to the yen vs dollar in the 70s and 80s.
 
Old 02-03-10, 10:58 AM
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I believe this link is appropriate for this thread. http://www.thestar.com/wheels/articl...-went-long-ago

Olive: Toyota's reputation for quality went long ago

My friend Mary Lou in Michigan knows that Toyota's reputation for quality is a sham. On a recent visit, she swept her arm across the width of the dashboard of her year-old Camry, bought new. "Every piece of this trim has fallen off or warped," she said of America's best-selling car.

An analyst at J.D. Power and Associates, the sine qua non in rating vehicle quality, told The Canadian Press Wednesday Toyota's recall of 2.3 million vehicles in the U.S. and 270,000 in Canada "signifies that (Toyota is) not afraid of doing the right thing for the right reasons, that short-term sales and profits are less important than taking care of the consumer and making sure they're safe in Toyota vehicles.''

I'd argue that not one word of that is true.

To start with, Toyota took the extraordinary step this week of suspending production at three U.S. and its two Canadian assembly plants because it was forced to by U.S. law. "It's not a voluntary thing," Toyota spokesman Mike Michels told the Wall Street Journal Wednesday.

More important, Toyota's quality problems go back many years, before the latest recall and last year's massive 4.2-million vehicle recall.

As it embarked on a goal of becoming the world's biggest automaker, Toyota failed to insulate itself from the "big-company disease" that humbled General Motors Co. As Toyota quickly ramped up production of its vehicles, its employees strayed from the automaker's "Toyota Way" of exacting quality control and continuous improvement in manufacturing methods.

It almost had to turn out that way. By 2007 Toyota was adding an average of two new factories a year to its global network, including a second Canadian plant in Woodstock that opened in 2008. Toyota's annual volume growth of about 500,000 vehicles equalled the entire production of Ford Motor Co.'s Volvo brand. By that same year, some 200,000, or two-thirds, of Toyota's workforce was located outside Japan. Toyota could no longer rely on word of mouth to convey the firm's managerial and manufacturing methods.

From 2004 to 2007, Toyota recalled a staggering 9.3 million vehicles – a number exceeding its total annual output, and up from 2.5 million recalls in the three years previous to 2004. In 2005, Toyota's rate of recalls as a percentage of vehicles on the road hit 10.1 per cent, compared with 6.8 per cent from GM and 2.5 per cent at Chrysler Group.

In 2006, Tokyo censured Toyota over improper business practices for failing for eight years to disclose and act on reports of a design flaw implicated in loss-of-control incidents. Loss of control due to accelerator pedals caught under floor mats triggered last year's huge recall, and caused four deaths after a Lexus abruptly went off the road in California.

In the 2007 J.D. Power survey, the Toyota brand scored below that of Hyundai Motor Co., a firm better known for price than quality. And the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety withheld its "top-pick" rating from Toyota's Camry and RAV4 SUV after their substandard performance in whiplash tests.

Also in 2007, Toyota's U.S. division settled a class-action lawsuit brought by motorists claiming that oil-sludge buildup destroyed their engines despite compliance with Toyota's maintenance guidelines.

A long three years ago, then-CEO Katsuaki Watanabe acknowledged to reporters that Toyota's long run of shoddiness was jeopardizing the company. "The world-class quality that we've built is our lifeline."

Yet, despite opening two quality "institutes" in each of North America and Europe to inculcate the "Toyota Way," there has been no meaningful improvement in Toyota quality. Like GM, stuck with too many plants as its market share dropped in half, Toyota has been compelled to keep all its new plants running flat-out to generate the cash flow to finance their construction, even as customer complaints have mounted.

Unlike Honda, Toyota is not an engineering trailblazer. And no one would accuse Toyota of being a trendsetter in styling akin to, say, BMW. Quality is principally what Toyota offers the market.

Toyota realized its goal of eclipsing GM as the world's largest automaker last year. The goal was a dubious one, given the risks. In any case, by late last year, Toyota had been overtaken by Volkswagen.

The only thing saving Toyota is a decades-long reputation for quality that people who still buy its cars don't realize the firm has not lived up to for more than half a decade.
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Old 02-03-10, 11:02 AM
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Originally Posted by 1SICKLEX
At this point it is clear the rant prevents rational conclusions from being made. Prices go up and guess what, consumers don't like when prices go up. Thus volume goes down. Profits fall.
Toyota's Japanese models have always been premium priced compared to the American made cars...LX570 went of 12% at redesign and I believe the LS460 was even higher. More recently the GX cleared the $50k starting point. While they may not have increased volumes, the sales are holding steady when they were redesigned.
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Old 02-03-10, 11:05 AM
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Originally Posted by MPLexus301
The thing that has been ringing in my ears ever since the floormat/accelerator problems is the fact that Akio Toyoda went to suppliers last month and told all of them to cut costs 30% or get out the door.
It's funny you mentioned this, we just stopped hauling their shipments about 3 months ago. Before when they went out on bid the regular carriers always had a foot in because Toyota was so strict on service. This is the first time we were told they do not care about service, Price only.
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Old 02-03-10, 11:06 AM
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Originally Posted by pagemaster
.

I give Honda some credit. They canned the S2000 and put the NSX on hold. It seems Honda is trying to ride of the storm right now.
They need a lot more help than just canning a few projects. The 2nd generation Insight was a major fail to edge the Prius. You're worried about cheap plastics and materials...go sit inside a Civic, Insight or dare I say the new CRZ. Acura isn't doing so hot either.

GM and Ford got away from the minivans and did not redesign them.
They were not segment leaders in the first place. What they offer isn't as good as the top sellers...Odyssey, Sienna and even the Chrysler vans. They never offered anything better than the competition since 1984 when Chrysler "invented" the segment.

GM also said no to a new body on frame designed Envoy and instead build the crossovers...Toyota still make the 4runner and FJ as well as the GX...the GX should of went unibody like EVERY other luxury carmaker.....and lets not forget that Toyota has not one but TWO body of frame full sized SUV's in the LC and Sequoia....something has to give in order to pay for these facilities and that not operation with a profit..
Do you recall who invented the crossover segment? You got it. TOYOTA AND LEXUS! The Tahoe, Yukon, Escalade, Suburban and etc. are still body on frame...on that note they should make them unibody construction too. The Land Cruiser sells quite well in other world markets for Toyota. The LC and Sequoia are both big. The LC was never a sales leader in it's segment but it is a niche market. If you notice, there aren't many LC's sitting in Toyota dealers. And if they are, they get sold pretty quickly.


Nissan pretty much have killed the Armada and Inifinit QX redesigns for North America and instead have sent the QX packing to be made alongside the Patrol in Japan
Because no one really wanted a big huge car with horrendous quality issues...cheap materials and very poor fuel economy. That's not a surprise.

Lets not forget Toyota's major mis-calculated mistake of canceling the MR2 and Celica redesigns back in 2004....redesigns of the MR2 and Celica would of made good sense now that Hyundai is killing with the Genesis coupe, Camaro is around, Dodge has something and even Ford......oh yeah, Toyota sure does have the capacity to make 400,000 Tundras.
It's all about demand. The Ford F series is the best selling and number one truck sales leader in America. Toyota has always wanted a piece of that market share. It's sad but the 2nd generation Tundra should have been a big full size since the inception of the T100. Toyota got the right formula in it's 3rd attempt, but it is at the wrong place at the wrong time. Not sure about how it is up by where you are in Canada or is it Michigan?
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Old 02-03-10, 11:10 AM
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Looking back from four years ago. Frank Williams from Truth About Cars was right

Toyota: [Falling] Quality is Job One

Play word association with the average American consumer. Say the words “quality cars.” Chances are they’ll respond with “Toyota.” For decades, the Japanese automaker has carefully nurtured and perpetuated a reputation for producing well-built/reliable cars and trucks. As a result, the company’s US sales have grown like kudzu. As of last month, Toyota now sells more cars in the Americas than Ford. If you discount fleet sales (so to speak), Toyota’s totals are within shouting distance of GM’s, both nationally and worldwide. Despite this startling, seemingly unstoppable success, or perhaps because of it, the company’s supposedly impenetrable façade has begun to show a few cracks.

Toyota’s first foray into US manufacturing began with a 25% federal tariff on foreign pickups. Toyota reacted to the punitive tax by importing bare chassis and attaching the truck beds in an American facility. When The Big Three (who were about to introduce their first domestic small trucks) pressured Congress into widening the tariff to include imported chassis, Toyota built an American plant to assemble complete trucks. Once the Japanese manufacturer realized they could build competitive vehicles stateside, they began expanding their American operations.

To avoid the United Auto Workers (UAW), Toyota situated their new factories in “right to work” states. As many industry analysts have concluded, Toyota’s clean sheet factories (eventually aided by state-funded tax breaks) and non-union workforce gave them an immediate and unassailable advantage over their “domestic” competition. While GM, Ford and Chrysler were busy appeasing their unions, draining funds which could have been used to upgrade their ageing products and antiquated production facilities, Toyota hit the ground running and never looked back.

At some point, Toyota became a victim of its own success. The company’s double quick expansion, from perennial underdog to voracious overlord, has compromised their unique selling point: product quality. Specifically, Toyota has suffered a plague of recalls around the world. In 2003, the automaker recalled 200k American vehicles. In 2004, the number increased fivefold, to a little over one million vehicles. In the following year, the number leaped again, more than doubling to 2.2 million. So far this year, Toyota has announced five recalls affecting approximately 900K vehicles.

Again, Toyota’s rapid growth is to blame. For one thing, the company’s design centers have been understaffed. The shortage of in-house talent has forced Toyota to outsource, relying on its parts suppliers to design key components. At the same time, the automaker has increased the amount of parts sharing among different models. The practice has dramatically increased the scope of a "single" failure, as witnessed by last October's recall of 1.27m Japanese vehicles. Goldman Sachs estimates that design faults (e.g. rubber parts not thick enough to withstand engine heat and joints too weak to hold together) account for 68% of Toyota’s 2004 recalls.

Andrew Phillips of Nikko Citigroup stated "Toyota's resources have been stretched quite a bit by the big increases in volume." Shinsei Securities analyst Yasuhiro Matsumoto lays the blame for Toyota’s declining quality squarely on Katsuaki Watanabe’s shoulders. He claims the CEO’s constant focus on cost cutting has created devastating production glitches. The resulting quality issues have become so alarming that Watanabe recently admitted, "I take this seriously and see it as a crisis." It’s just as well; Goldman Sachs analyst Kunihiko Shiohara estimates that it may take Toyota four years or more to achieve "a fundamental turnaround in quality levels.”

Toyota also seems to be off their game in predicting market shifts. True, the company displayed impeccable timing by importing the Yaris just as American demand for smaller, higher mileage cars kicked into high gear. But Toyota’s also about to begin production on a larger, heavier and more powerful full-size Tundra, assembled in a brand new $800m Texas plant. While Toyota sells the high mileage cars tree huggers love to hug, they also have the thirstiest truck fleet on the market. And now that large truck sales seem to be tanking, they’re gearing-up to produce them in record numbers. Only time will tell if they’ve made a smart move (i.e. if sales recover or GM goes bankrupt), but at this point their timing could hardly be worse.

Earlier this year, Toyota announced they were delaying the introduction of the new Corolla for a year to focus on the launch of the new Camry. This will leave the current generation Corolla in service for a Big Three-like six years. While the move could reflect a redoubling of Toyota’s commitment to quality, it gives the model’s competitors some much-needed breathing room. Is this a minor setback in Toyota’s relentless march on American market share




It looks like most auto publications make clear the big problem with Toyota is that they are too big from the manufacturing side.
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Old 02-03-10, 11:27 AM
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Originally Posted by flipside909
It's all about demand. The Ford F series is the best selling and number one truck sales leader in America. Toyota has always wanted a piece of that market share. It's sad but the 2nd generation Tundra should have been a big full size since the inception of the T100. Toyota got the right formula in it's 3rd attempt, but it is at the wrong place at the wrong time. Not sure about how it is up by where you are in Canada or is it Michigan?
I am in Canada right now. I haven't looked in a long while but usually the top selling car in Canada is the Civic, Corolla and then the Mazda 3....or at least it was like that the last time I checked. The F150 doesn't make the top10 if I remember
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Old 02-03-10, 11:43 AM
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Originally Posted by pagemaster
And I disagree here. It seems some car companies are trying to proactively change operations.

I give Honda some credit. They canned the S2000 and put the NSX on hold. It seems Honda is trying to ride of the storm right now.

GM and Ford got away from the minivans and did not redesign them. GM also said no to a new body on frame designed Envoy and instead build the crossovers...Toyota still make the 4runner and FJ as well as the GX...the GX should of went unibody like EVERY other luxury carmaker.....and lets not forget that Toyota has not one but TWO body of frame full sized SUV's in the LC and Sequoia....something has to give in order to pay for these facilities and that not operation with a profit..

Nissan pretty much have killed the Armada and Inifinit QX redesigns for North America and instead have sent the QX packing to be made alongside the Patrol in Japan

Lets not forget Toyota's major mis-calculated mistake of canceling the MR2 and Celica redesigns back in 2004....redesigns of the MR2 and Celica would of made good sense now that Hyundai is killing with the Genesis coupe, Camaro is around, Dodge has something and even Ford......oh yeah, Toyota sure does have the capacity to make 400,000 Tundras.
You contradicted yourself a bit by saying it was "smart" for Honda to axe the S2000 and NSX, but then you say Toyota mis-calculated when they axed the MR2 and Celica

As far as some of the other things you've said in this thread, I wholeheartedly disagree on your view of the Sequoia. Up until a few months ago it was outselling the 4runner. If anything Toyota needs to stop selling the Land Cruiser in the American market. Some platform consolidations could be made so that the Tundra/Sequoia share a platform with the Land Cruiser. That would save a little bit of cash I would think.

The 4runner, Prado, and FJ lines could all be merged globally to save some R&D money. The 4runner and Prado could be the same vehicle and the FJ could be a global 3 door version.

I do agree with you though, that it would have been nice if the GX were unibody, but that doesn't mean a unibody large CUV is off the table for Lexus. And the GX had a very good month last month so its apparent there is still a market for that sort of SUV.
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