LexBob2

The major competitors in the segment are on pace to sell 40k-45k units each this year in the U.S. (X3, Q5, GLK, RDX).

The NX should come in around this range too I would think.

All of the volume won't be incremental though, so a good percentage of the sales of the NX and MKC will have to come from the competition as well as from other segments so it will be interesting to see how things shake out after 6 months to year after both have been on the market.

miop4000

I think it may struggle somewhat in Australia particularly at first. Not because of quality but it's been priced above its competitors. Fully loaded 300 h is $8000+ US and the turbo will likely be pushing $90000. Lexus is positioning the brand with a super euro premium here but then has 'drive away sales' that stretch for 3 months at the end of the year. Kind of cheapens the brand. Will wait for 12 months and pick an NX probably next year during a 'sale'.
Similar consensus at work. Many used to be Lexus fans but agree now that Euros have caught up in quality and dealer experience and are cheaper.

Nights

I'm not quite sure how you're doing your sums in Australia, especially since the turbo is only going to be marginally more expensive, and not 10k more.

Spec for spec, the NX is actually cheaper than the Euro competition, and that's considering the NX is a new model and the competition such as the Evoque and Q5 have been out for quite some time.

For example, a NX300h AWD Luxury is 61k retail. A Q5 2.0T is 63,200 retail. If you spec the F-Sport, it rises to 66k. Spec the S-line for Audi, and the Q5 hits 70k. Spec out the enhancement pack for the F-Sport which is fully loaded, it hits 73k (without dealer charges). Click the same options for the Q5 to make them equal spec wise, and the Q5 will be near 80k before dealer charges. Of course, it's easier to get a better "deal" on the Q5 since it's verging on runout model status now, but the fact is that retail price the NX is still cheaper.

The same happens when you look at the X3. The 2.0d model is 63,100 retail BEFORE you add any options. The Evoque Dynamic TD4 (their equivalent of the F-Sport) is $69675 BEFORE options.

My wife test drove all of the above, and the only one that we could get slightly cheaper than the NX was the Q5 after some hard bargaining, but we had to sacrifice a little bit of spec, and also accept a car shape/model that was >6 years old.

Toys4RJill

I think the 200t will be huge, but the turbo will eventually be discontinue.

Toys4RJill

I think the 200t will be huge, but the hybrid will eventually be discontinue.

bunka

I think the Hybrid will be HUGE but LexsCTJill will be discontinueD (Notice the proper use of grammer)...LOL

LexBob2

I thought I read in one of these threads Lexus predicts the hybrid will account for 10% of sales. Seems low to me.

Nights

In the US maybe, because of the obsession with bhp numbers and your cheap fuel, and cheap land.

In other countries the take up will be far higher. In Australia for example, the IS300h is neck and neck with the IS250 in sales despite the 300h being more expensive. And in general, hybrids account for 40% or so of all sales here.

In Europe, it's even higher, where fuel/space is even more expensive, hybrids account for something like >75% of total sales.

wildeklave

I also think it comes down to pricing. Lexus will surely undercut Audi and BMW fot the Q5 and X3 but you also have the Lincoln MKC and Acura RDX in the luxury segment. Since the engine is weaker than both of these the pricing should be in line or a little lower.

A base 200T should probably be in the 32-35k range. A nicely optioned version should be around 38-39k with a fully loaded F sport at 45k or lower.

You also have to realize that the aggressive styling will market to a younger crowd and not the soccer moms who want a grocery hauler or the retirees who drive Camry's, RX's, and ES's since they are used to a more luxurious conservatively styled vehicle.

My guess on demographic:
- 30-50 year old professional males
- those not in the 1st group who like sports or are car enthusiasts
- those with a conservative vehicle already (Highlander, RX, MDX) and want a 2nd sportier vehicle
- 1st time luxury buyers stepping up from a CRV, RAV 4, Escape, Santa Fe, Rogue
- Hybrid fans that want an SUV (small companies that need an SUV for move people or materials to jobs may look to the vehicle)
- luxury car taxi services for the hybrid (ie. NYC black cars that are typically Lincoln's)

spwolf

It will start at around $36k-37k with destination and base equipment is already good.

Lexus will not consider RDX or MKC pricing though... MKC optioned can go to $50k anyway.

Uneedthis2

This! I drove the NX and it really is going to be HUGE for the brand.

jadu

iTrader: (42)

^^^^ agreed. i actually want one

spwolf

NX will be segment leader if they can get enough units in the USA. Pretty simple I think.

FastTags

I think people will more likely to buy NX vs. RX. Its a great looking car. GLA i think is a true competitor to NX.
I wouldn't even look at RX. Told my wife te other day that it is her next ride

Wagnerian

My local dealer believes NX will take over RX as the largest sales volume vehicle.