kenji4861

Did the math and owning a Lexus NX and Tesla S60 for the next 5 years is not much different. About $6-7k.

Tesla has the added benefit of autopilot and not having to go the gas station
But I won't be able to make long road trips.

corradoMR2

Some things to more precisely consider and calculate.

1. 28 mpg is too low for the 300h unless it's driven hard and mostly on the highway.
2. No fuel and electricity costs calculated?
3. Maintenance for the 300h will be higher than 1000$ over 5 years. Minimum two oil change/lube service per year in itself is about 300$/yr. Then consider wear and tear items like tires and brakes. In short it's at least 3000$ over 5 yrs. However the NX's tires for instance are 18s and will be lower cost vs Tesla's 19-21" and I expect the same for the brakes, and so on which will favor the NX.
4. 40K selling price seems high for the Tesla. If you factor in a 40% value retention (60% depreciation) for both vehicles, 18K sounds about right for the NX and the Tesla is around 30K.

These are all moot points though since these are two very different vehicles but I would expect at least a 10-12K higher cost on the Tesla after all is considered unless you really can get 40k for it and electricity is somehow free.

LexBob2

For now not being able to take long trips and range anxiety are deal breakers. For $75k I'd want more flexibility.

m1964

I do not get why after spending over &75K+tax, etc. (about $80K total price) I should worry about the driving range. Also If I had $80K to spend on a vehicle I would not worry about fuel costs at all...my 2p

hjscm

well i wouldn't worry about range anxiety at all. i have a tesla p85+ and i drive from San Francisco to Palm springs all the time with no problems, also form san fran to lake tahoe no problems. as long as you have a tesla charging stations on the way which are beginning to pop up all over now a days you will be fine. i can get around 252miles on a charge which isn't that bad. and for me the energy is free cause i have solar on the house. wife just bought a nx last week

sg021

I also decided on Tesla after researching pretty exhaustively. I have had an X reservation since well before I made a decision, but it was worth it as now that decision is whether to wait or switch to an S. If you put enough miles on a Tesla, which I will, the costs become very competitive.

The OP is pricing a bare bones S60 with Tech package. No supercharging, so likely pretty limited intended use in the road trip department. No range anxiety as you aren't going to take it that far. I will say it is probably easier to get verification of your numbers for cost of ownership on the Tesla forums though.

kenji4861

Thanks guys, I fixed up the spreadsheet a little more.

Includes electricity price, changed MPG, refined prices, etc.

It's more like

5 Year Ownership Cost (YMMV)
- NX 300H for $39,863
- Tesla S60 for $44,217

sg021

Looks better, but like Corrado said you have the maintenance way too low on the NX. I'd trust his opinion and go with $3,000.

Also if you don't have a level 2 outlet in the garage or side of your house, I'd budget in the cost of putting in a NEMA 14-50 outlet for the Tesla.

corradoMR2

^^^ kenji4861, looks like you're still missing these in your 5 year TCO calculation, which paints are more realistic $10,500 price premium for the Tesla over the NXh, IMO:


Tesla S60 = $54,450
NXh = $43,938


RESALE after 5 years:
Tesla: 40% of $75,320 = $30,128
NXh: 40% of $45,000 = $18,000

MAINTENANCE for 5 years:
Tesla: $3,000 + min 1 1/2 additional set of tires (some owners have had to change the rear tires every 10-12k miles = $4,500

Per Tesla site, service plan ($600 annual or other options):
Annual inspection (or every 12,500 miles)
Replacement parts like brake pads and windshield wipers (excluding tires)
24 hour roadside assistance
System monitoring
Remote diagnostics
Hardware upgrades

NXh: $3,500 (regular maint + wear/tear for one set new pads + one set new tires)

Even at $10K more over the NXh, that's not a big price to pay for a more premium vehicle. I'd be interested in the Model X personally if it's in the same TCO price range.

sg021

To play it safe, yes I would just go with the price premium Corrado shows. If you can stomach that, you should be in good shape. The resale of an autopilot S60 is hard to predict, there aren't many of them out there yet. In general Teslas have held their value extremely well, but there was a huge backlog of orders to chew through initially and low production in general that made used ones scarce. Since you are getting in right after a big hardware update I think you should do well, but honestly it's a pretty murky thing to predict.

Tesla scheduled maintenance is on the high side, I think it is a bit of a ripoff for what it is. I plan space out my service longer after the first few years.

It's hard to quantify any savings on brakes, but pretty much nothing uses them less than a Tesla because the default regen setting is very strong.

As far as tires, there's been a huge amount written on the forums. The result seems to be there were some camber issues at one time that caused people to eat tires. P85s were most susceptible because they have the most powerful RWD only drive unit and mandatory 21" performance tires. My former coworker has an S60 and has not had tire issues, FWIW. In general, the early cars are sketchier than what they're making now, which is not surprising considering they had to build manufacturing up from nothing.

kenji4861

RESALE VALUE
The resale value on Tesla have held up VERY well. KBB blows my mind on 2012 Tesla Model S prices, but we can't predict the future when Tesla Model 3 comes out.

I think it'll be higher than 40%, but to be fair, let's assume the same depreciation as the Lexus.

Lexus SUV (RX) resale value is 43% according to KBB after 5 years (assuming 12k/year)

Maintenance
Made the change for Lexus for $3500 and added $1000 for new tires.

I talked to Tesla and people on TMC and they said the first 2 years is just tire rotation which can be done by anyone and the $600 can be avoided for the first 2 years. That's why I wrote the maintenance as $1800 (3 years x $600). Added $1000 for new tires and another $100 for tire rotations for the first 2 years

Missed Interest
While we're at it, we do put down an extra $32k or so to buy the Tesla so we miss out on interest on that amount. Say we earn 2% on some sad 5 year CD. That's $3000 missed by buying a Model S.

Now we are looking at

COST OF 5 YEAR OWNERSHIP
Lexus NX 300H /w a few options - $43363
Tesla Model S60 /w Tech Package - $53590
Toyota Prius Plug-in - $22857 (just for comparison)

corradoMR2

Yeah, $10K no matter how it's sliced and diced!

What's the best vehicle for you now that the math is done?