daryll40

In a recent prior thread, it was pointed out (and I verified using Kelley Blue Book numbers) that buying a discounted LS430 NOW (new) versus buying a new LS460 would probably be a bad financial decision, as the new car's lesser depreciation would more than make up for the additional upfront cost.

That being said, I also suspect that moving "up market" as Lexus is doing with the LS460...probably about 10 grand more in actual transaction dollars received....I'll bet the depreciation on our "old" LS430's will actually be helped by this. I am NOT saying that it makes sense to buy "left over" LS430s now versus the new car...but I AM saying that for those of us with "late models" (mine is an '04) I think the depreciation will be less going forward than if the new car did not move upscale and did not have a big price increase.

I6turbo

iTrader: (1)

As an owner I hope the 3rd generation's value is propped up some by the new LS, but since about 60% of the early buyers are likely to be current LS owners (figures from my local Lexus dealer), it's going to put a BUNCH of 3rd gen cars on the used market. Given that, I think they'll have a very hard time holding steady value.

GRAND_LS 4

iTrader: (2)

You are very correct. This helped the First gens like no other gen. They were $34K new, and after 10 years, The LS was in the 60K+ range. So they didnt lose value like they should have, thanks to the raise in prices for the LS model.

I6turbo

iTrader: (1)

We'll see. I hope you guys are right, but I still doubt it.

Out of curiosity, I did some searches today, 9/19/06, and found 1633 used LS430s in the US ("any distance" from my zip code). It'll be interesting to compare the average prices in 6 months.

Here are the results:

230 2001 models:
$39,995 Highest price
$17,500 Lowest price
$28,220 Average price

350 2002 models:
$46,988 Highest price
$11,750 Lowest price
$31,439 Average price

494 2003 models:
$52,988 Highest price
$9,500 Lowest price
$36,645 Average price

307 2004 models:
$58,890 Highest price
$31,500 Lowest price
$44,547 Average price

192 2005 models:
$59,988 Highest price
$18,900 Lowest price
$50,067 Average price

60 2006 models:
$62,995 Highest price
$43,995 Lowest price
$55,672 Average price

Now just for my area...
There are 315 2001-2006 LS430s listed on Autotrader within a 300 mile radius of me (seems to include Florida up to Atlanta).
$72,998 Highest price
$21,900 Lowest price
$41,455 Average price

45 2001 models:
$34,621 Highest price
$21,900 Lowest price
$27,966 Average price

62 2002 models:
$37,900 Highest price
$22,900 Lowest price
$30,958 Average price

111 2003 models:
$45,995 Highest price
$27,995 Lowest price
$36,791 Average price

48 2004 modles:
$51,889 Highest price
$31,500 Lowest price
$44,390 Average price

35 2005 models:
$55,998 Highest price
$36,995 Lowest price
$49,399 Average price

14 2006 models:
$61,955 Highest price
$49,900 Lowest price
$55,967 Average price

D2-AUTOSPORT

I think it also depends on the sales success of the newer gen. The 1st GEN GS took a big hit in value because the market became FLOODED with them after owners flocked to the new 2nd Gen.

I guess time will have to tell. I still love the 04+ model modded so who cares right? lol

ghmundt

Face it, there is already a huge demand for the 460. I am on a 4 month waiting list to get one already and it has not even shown up at the dealership. It has everything the S550 has and is $20000 less. The Taste of Lexus just came through Chicago and after driving both the S550 and the LS460, the 460 is my choice. I will dump my 02 LS 430 along with many of my Lexus owning friends who have been awaiting the 460. Frankly we don't care too much about the trade in value of our 430's because it has been a great car and a great value, but it is time to move on. Don't expect the current 430s to see an uptick in value as the market gets flooded with used 02-06s in the coming months.

rominl

iTrader: (4)

pretty good point. i do expect to see tons of ls430 (even 04 and 05 imho) all the way till early next yr. a lot of people who can afford the ls430 they probably can just trade the car in like that to the new LS and not worry much about it

daryll40

In looking at EDMUNDS and KBB.COM numbers, it appears that the LS430 is dropping faster than I originally expected in depreciation. So you folks who noted the glut of used LS430s coming from those trading to LS460 might be right. On the other hand, this might stabilize because it's a MARKET and used car buyers recognize the great value in a used LS430 in the same way, in days of old, used Mercedes (esp the "run forever" diesels) retained a premium amount over "average" cars. So I guess what I am saying is that it does appear that there is a big drop off in values now over what they would have been had the LS430 continued. But if you keep your LS430 out a few years the dropoff should flatten out and long term owners will still fare better than average on depreciation. For those who have to have the LS460 early on, however, you'll pay full sticker AND suffer greater LS430 depreciation. The cost of being the first at your country club!

LEX012006

Does it really matter what the value of your car is? If you are a true Lexus owner, it does not really matter the value. the true value is that you own a machine that many car makers copy and envy. I have own a 97 400 and now a 01 430, and of course after all the hooplah have died down, eventually a 460. The cost of the vehicle, if you love what you drive, does not really matter. The real deal is....can you afford it, thats the bottom line. If you can afford the cost of the vehicle...new or used...that is what should really concern you. And at the end of the day, if you really want something, nothing will get in your way of getting it..........ESPECIALLY IF IT IS A 2007 LS 460!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Luckydog

It looks to me that the depreciation will be more rapid for the LS430 as the market gets flooded. But the big question (for those in the used car market) is when will that depreciation speed up and then taper back into a more natural pattern.

I am more than willing to wait as the LS430 is not my choice of vehicles to go up snowboard which is what I hope to be doing more of this winter!! But if the quicker depreciation is 6 months away then I will keep up my persuit.

What do you think?

rominl

iTrader: (4)

my guess is by december we will start to see a flood of ls430 in the market

daryll40

I agree many LS430s will come onto the used car market. But I am not sure this will cause a depreciation meltdown. Remember, the big Lexus is still known as the best mass-production passenger car ever. Even used people want these puppies, big time. As prices drop, demand will pick up. Classic supply/demand scenario.

ghmundt

I just returned from my local Chicago area Lexus dealer to get my 02 LS430 with nav and 52000 miles appraised for trade in on a LS460. Best of 2 local dealers played off against each other $22000. Car is in excellent shape. The dealers really don't want too many of them right now they tell me. Maybe resale will pick up, but I doubt it. I recently went through the same thing when the SL500 was replaced by the much more powerful SL550. Resale took a real hit and it still has not recovered. So drive your LS430 and enjoy it.

daryll40

Or if it resale doesn't improve, perhaps it will remain flat (meaning only mimimal ADDITIONAL depreciation over the next 12-18 months or so).

The dealers are also probably lowballing trades now since the new product is a "hot" commodity. The market will sort itself out within the first year. There is only a limited market for $65,000+ cars. Once the froth comes off of the new model they may be willing to give more for your trade.

omarg

well i guess it's time to get my mom an ls430. But i do agree. I think depriciation will remain flat. LS430's are the best lexus has to offer. I doubt they will start to be given away like q45's. I wish they would though!