itsZep

Anyone have any thoughts on what effects the huge rise in gas prices
and the industry's trend towards smaller more gas efficient vehicles
will have on the GX470?

Will any redesign plans be scrapped or post-poned with a "wait & see" attitude?

How much higher would gas prices need to go before Lexus would
consider dropping the GX470 all-together?

I hear the SUV market has crashed and the automakers are in a
near panic mode concerning SUV sales.

Even-though Lexus buyers tend to be upper end, still
with the sub-prime crisis and now gas prices rising
dramatically it has to affect Lexus too.

I know if Lexus does drop the GX470 I plan on buying
a new one the final year of production.

Trexus

I totally agree with you. I'm considering a GX 470 as well because I need the space and I hope Lexus does not discontinue the GX. I believe the next generation GX will be the GX 570 just as the LX 470 became the LX 570. I test drove a GX at Carmax last week and it was so smooth but I did experience the clunk but I'm not worried about that since Lexus will take care of that when you acknowledge the clunk to Lexus. I'll be getting a GX before the end of this year...

itsZep

Trexus.....with gas prices soaring I would
think it is a "buyers market" concerning SUV's.

You're going to love the GX470.

It is one great vehicle.

kutsyy

Depending on what you call "SUV market".

If you are referring to SUV that are only driven on paved roads with total of one person in the car, then this market should collapse (it should not be there to start with).

Now if you are talking about market of a car capable of going off road, in the high snow, carry luggage and tow significant load but been nice on paved road and high speeds too, then there are not that many options available (4runner/FJ/GX/Prado, Land Cruiser/LX, Tahoe/Suburban/Yukon, Mercedes-Benz GL and G, Land Rover). Don't forget, that US still have one of the cheapest gas in the developed world, but most of the cars above are global brands.

The only question is, if Toyota would want to keep both 4Runner and Land Cruiser, or just one. I would expect that Toyota will keep both (but Toyota did cancelled Supra, so Toyota does make stupid decisions).

Trexus

It's funny how Toyota has many SUV's or derivatives of such as.

LX 570
GX 470
RX 350/400h
Sequoia
Landcruiser
FJ Cruiser
4Runner
Highlander/hybrid version
RAV4

and very soon we'll have the Venza which is more like a station wagon.

itsZep

"SUV that are only driven on paved roads"

Probably accounts for what?....75-90% of all GX470's?

Most GX470's I see in Dallas (including mine)
you can tell are used almost exclusively on pavement.

LexusBob

My wife is pushing me to trade in my GX for a hybrid because of all the miles I put on commuting. I love my GX and don't want to get rid of it, but if gas prices continue to rise, who knows? Can a hybrid GX be developed? Any MPG improvements to this model would be appreciated by many IMHO.

kutsyy

Unfortunately it probably accounts for 90% SUV in US

cssnms

Can you say "GX 500h" or "flexfuel?" Toyota is savy and sensative enough to stay in front of the changing markets. They certainly have the technological know how and generally speaking I think they are ahead of the curve in this dept. I see a redesign to include one of these alternatives that will prove to be equally if not more useful in terms of utility and performance.

Personally I would not be opposed if they discontinued the GX (for now), then I would be less inclined to desire the new one when it comes out! Not to mention, there is nothing like owning the first/last model of a car/suv, which IMO is destined to become a classic much like the 1st and 2nd generation land cruisers are.

The G Man

The 2010 or 2011 redesign GX is probably in the works already. I dont think Lexus will discontinue that re-design proccess. If gas price keep going up, you might see more than 1 engine choice for the new GX. I just traded in my GX 6 months ago and got about $1000 less than KBB. Back then my dealer had 7-8 used GX on his lots, now he has 12 or so. Most people who buy truck based SUVs now have a real need for them such as towing or off-roading. Soccer moms who dont like minivans are buying crossovers. Its a buyer's market now for GX if you arwe looking for a bargain.

GatorGreg

GX sales have gone down but have not been affected quite as badly as other SUVs (like it's sister SUV the 4Runner or FJCruiser). I vaguely remember something from Economics class about "elasticity of demand". I'm guessing that the average Lexus SUV shopper's elasticity of demand is not as affected by high gas prices as the average Toyota SUV shopper. In fact, I believe GX sales are still on pace to meet the projected 18,000 per year goal that Lexus initially set way back during it's intro in 2003.

Like The G Man, I'm also guessing the 2010 GX/4Runner development is already past the point of no return. The redesigned GX will probably come standard with the new 5.7, while the 4Runner will continue to come standard with a V6 and the option of getting either the 4.7 or 5.7 - or maybe even both V8's will be offered like they do for the Tundra.

I think it would be great if they'd offer the turbo-diesel engine in the GX just like the Prado already has available overseas. I think the Prado diesel gets about 25 or 26 mpg. Of course now that diesel seems to cost about 25% more than gas it probably wouldn't make much overall difference.

ADVocate

Everyone on this forum can wish all they want ... but if Lexus sells less than 10k units over the course of a year, you bet they will discontinue the line. Manufacturing is not a charity.

I like the truck, but as economies evolve most people will not consider this vehicle a worthwhile option. You will probably see most mid size vehicle purchases somewhere around the size of the Honda Pilot or Saturn Vue. Quite frankly, I am surprised anyone is considering this vehicle at this stage of the game. I am assuming that you do not drive much, either that or you really have a lot of disposable income. Because, fuel prices will never drop ... period. The last bubble of low cost petroleum was just that ... a bubble.

With all that said, I will probably purchase a commuter vehicle and leave the GX for hauling guests around on those occasional weekends.

And that is more than just an opinion ... I can and do read between the lines.

itsZep

Rising Gas Prices Finally Kill The Once-Mighty SUV

By Chuck Squatriglia - June 09, 2008

After reigning supreme for the better part of two decades, the mighty SUV has at long last fallen, done in by mounting fuel prices that have consumers embracing small cars and automakers scrambling to build them.

Nissan pounded the latest nail into the coffin today when it followed General Motors, Ford and Toyota in saying it will scale back production of trucks and SUVs in favor of fuel-efficient cars now that the bottom has fallen out of light truck market. Car sales, which accounted for half of the industry's volume last year, hit 57 percent last month while truck sales fell by double-digits to their lowest mark since 1995.

Need more proof the SUV is a goner? Ford's venerable F150 pickup ended its 17-year-run as the best-selling vehicle in America last month, dethroned by the Honda Civic and three other Japanese sedans. General Motors is looking to unload Hummer, the epitome of gas-guzzling excess, after sales fell 60 percent in May. The number of Civics sold in one month exceed the number of Hummers GM expects to sell all year.

"The SUV as a lifestyle choice, as a personal statement, is dead," Aaron Bragman, an industry analyst at Global Insight, tells Wired.com. "People are downsizing from their big trucks to smaller cars."

What's surprising isn't that SUVs are dead, but how quickly they fell.

The major automakers have in the past year or so vowed to ramp up production of passenger cars, and industry watchers predicted sales of passenger cars would surpass those of trucks within in a couple of years. Instead, it happened almost overnight as fuel prices raced toward, and then surpassed, $4 a gallon.

"We had planned on the small car - truck reversal occurring in 2010," Bragman says. "It's coming a lot faster than anyone expected."

Jesse Toprak, chief industry analyst for Edmunds, agrees, telling CNNMoney.com, "We've never seen this big of a change in the product mix, this fast. Certainly five to 10 years from now you're going to look back and say the spring of '08 was the turning point. Even if gas prices go down for a month or two, consumers are not going to rush back out and buy SUVs. This appears to be a permanent shift."

The shift has the auto industry reeling. U.S. auto sales plummeted almost across the board last month - among the biggies, only Honda and Nissan posted gains - amid a staggering decline in light truck sales: 37 percent at General Motors, 25 percent at Ford and 12 percent at Toyota. The Japanese automaker saw sales of its Tundra pickup fall 33 percent.

"All of our previous assumptions on the full-size pickup truck segment are off the table," Bob Carter, Toyota division sales chief said last week during a conference call with reporters. Translation - we have no idea how low they'll go.

The bright spot for Toyota is the Camry and Corolla joined the Honda Civic and Accord in unseating the F150 as the best-selling vehicle in America. For that reason, the automaker may ramp up production of the Camry at its light truck plant in Princeton, Ind.

Toyota isn't the only one tossing SUVs over the side to make room for more passenger cars. Honda is cranking out more Civics and Nissan is cutting production of the Titan pickup and Armada SUV at its plant in Canton, Miss. (pictured) to build more Altima passenger cars. Last month's Altima sales rose almost 44 percent over the same month in 2007.

And then there's General Motors, shutting down four truck plants and embracing compact cars with a promise that 18 of its next 19 new vehicles will be passenger cars or crossover utility vehicles - the industry term for big station wagons. Ford's also cutting truck production and cranking out more CUVs and cars.

Small cars are the only thing keeping the industry afloat these days. Demand for hybrids has outstripped supply and many dealers have long waiting lists. Sales of the Ford Focus were up 53 percent last month, as were sales of Mini. Honda and Acura sales rose 31.9 percent, Hyundai was up 26.3 and Nissan climbed 18.7 percent.

There will always be a market for pickup trucks and SUVs among contractors, law-enforcement agencies and the like, but Satori Aoki, chairman of Honda Motor Co., predicts the trend away from them is here to stay. "One thing that's certain is that consumer interest in fuel-efficient, environmentally friendly cars will grow," he told reporters.

He's right. The SUV is dead. Long live small cars.

Associated Press photo.

http://blog.wired.com/cars/2008/06/rising-gas-pric.html

itsZep

I agree ADVocate.....I think plans for the future (even at Lexus for SUV's) are not at all "set in stone". There is an enormous change happening as we speak. We have not seen this kind of change in decades. Sure there is a segment of GX owners that wont care if gas hits $8 a gallon, but there is also a large segment that will decide against a GX because of the new reality of energy prices that as you say are never again going significantly lower. It remains to be seen what will happen, but if I was making predictions I would think that there is a good chance a vehicle like the GX we drive today will not be available as a new vehicle within 5 years. I hate to think what gas prices will be next month, much less in 5 years.

bobinsofla

Most cost trade studies of selling your SUV and getting a hybrid, even at $5/gallon, will result in such a long payback period that it simply does not make good financial sense.

Loss of value on trade in + cost of new car purchase (and financing charges, if any) + cost of depreciation of new vehicle = As much as 10 years to recover from the savings in fuel cost. That's just too long of a period to recover the downside to make it a financially feasible.

But everyone has their own unique situation (plus wife emotional factor) so the trade study "may" work in favor of a new vehicle, but probably not.

My 2 pennies,
Bob

p.s. I hate to see people make financial decisions based on emotion - they are usually the wrong decision.....