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Lexus miscalculated demand for ES 300h

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Old 10-28-12, 08:42 AM   #1
Tedster
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Default Lexus miscalculated demand for ES 300h

Lexus originally estimated that 25% of new ES purchases would be of the 300h with 350's comprising the remaining 75%. With a price differential of only $2K and a gas price spike in California, it's no wonder that you can't find many 300h's in dealer lots in Southern California.
Even if gas prices go down, the demand for ES 300h's will remain. I think they will comprise 50%
instead of 25% of new ES purhases. Presently they are ramping up production.
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Old 10-28-12, 09:00 AM   #2
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the price difference is actually $2700 which is the least expensive of all the Lexus lines, but the Lincoln MKZ hybrid costs the same. I actually looked at a RX (price difference of $6500!)

Source: Lexus.com

and at least in the US overall, gas prices have gone down in the past month

Source: gasbuddy.com

(although CA's gas price spike did make national news recently, and the Hurricane Sandy won't help either)

Gas prices are so fickle, though. I doubt lexus will change their production lines for something that mercurial, esp since gas prices in CA are supposed to go down since they've transitioned to the "winter blend"
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Old 10-28-12, 09:33 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tedster View Post
Lexus originally estimated that 25% of new ES purchases would be of the 300h with 350's comprising the remaining 75%. With a price differential of only $2K and a gas price spike in California, it's no wonder that you can't find many 300h's in dealer lots in Southern California.
Even if gas prices go down, the demand for ES 300h's will remain. I think they will comprise 50%
instead of 25% of new ES purhases. Presently they are ramping up production.
I agree... I would guess 40 to 50%
I never was intrested in a Hybrid before the 300h.
#1...They were too small and did not look very nice.
#2...or had a price differential of $5,000. to $6,000.+

Now with a price difference of only $2,750. (of which I think I will get a good portion back at trade in a few years) ..
It made sense for me, this is my 100th. car and my 1st. Hybrid.
So far I am really happy with it.
I am getting over 40MPG avg. so far.
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Old 10-28-12, 09:34 AM   #4
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I'd like to see sales figures comparing the ES350 to the ES300h also. Judging by my local dealer's stock, ES350's, as well as base ES300h's are available, but no ESh's with Luxury Package, etc. are in stock. I believe demand of the ESh surprised Lexus and they will have to increase capacity.
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Old 10-28-12, 04:24 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeP View Post
I'd like to see sales figures comparing the ES350 to the ES300h also. Judging by my local dealer's stock, ES350's, as well as base ES300h's are available, but no ESh's with Luxury Package, etc. are in stock. I believe demand of the ESh surprised Lexus and they will have to increase capacity.
Yep, they most definitely miscalculated.
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Old 10-28-12, 04:38 PM   #6
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I would suspect if demand remains high then they will be selling the 300h close to MSRP!
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Old 10-30-12, 02:52 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by uicandrew View Post
the price difference is actually $2700 which is the least expensive of all the Lexus lines, but the Lincoln MKZ hybrid costs the same. I actually looked at a RX (price difference of $6500!)

Source: Lexus.com

and at least in the US overall, gas prices have gone down in the past month

Source: gasbuddy.com

(although CA's gas price spike did make national news recently, and the Hurricane Sandy won't help either)

Gas prices are so fickle, though. I doubt lexus will change their production lines for something that mercurial, esp since gas prices in CA are supposed to go down since they've transitioned to the "winter blend"
RX is poised as a higher performance model above the standard 350, hence a bigger premium. The ES300h is an economy focused model with less power than the standard 350, so there's a smaller premium.
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Old 10-30-12, 03:28 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pbm317 View Post
RX is poised as a higher performance model above the standard 350, hence a bigger premium. The ES300h is an economy focused model with less power than the standard 350, so there's a smaller premium.
In addition to comparing the sales of the ESh & ES350, I'd like to see the figures for the GSh & GS350. There's a $12,000 premium for the GSh, then you have to add the options. There was a GSh at the local dealer with an MSRP of $67,000 and wasn't maxed out with options. I suspect the GSh will be as slow a seller as the last generation was.
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Old 10-30-12, 03:57 PM   #9
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Not sure if the majority of buyers of a $45k for a car are concerned about fuel efficiency. I suspect the reason low availability of the ES300h in California (and other regions that may have a low supply) is due to some other reason.

Last edited by ElliotB; 10-30-12 at 04:20 PM..
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Old 10-30-12, 04:30 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElliotB View Post
Not sure if the majority of buyers of a $45k for a car are concerned about fuel efficiency. I suspect the reason for fewer ES300h in California is due to some other reason.
What other reason would the majority buy the 300h for ?... It's the only reason I bought one.

There are fewer (Very few) 300h's here in the northeast also.
I had to have one trucked in from out of state, none of the 5 closest dealers had one.(except for ones without Navigation).
Lexus only built 25% for now, that will have to change.
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Old 10-30-12, 05:16 PM   #11
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As Lexus has not released sales figures, and until they do, no one will know for sure.

The ES350 has been a top selling vehicle for Lexus for many years without the hybrid option. There is no reason to think that sales will not continue to be strong for the gas version. Toyota sells lots of Camry hybrids but the majority of Camry's are the gas version - the Camry has been available as a hybrid since 2007. A 3-5 year payback period does not appeal to everyone.
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Old 10-30-12, 05:16 PM   #12
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quote]What other reason would the majority buy the 300h for ?... It's the only reason I bought one.[/quote]
I ordered mine for the combination of fuel economy, luxury and Toyota reliability. My first Lexus eta is the end of November. I will miss my 2007 TCH.
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Old 10-30-12, 05:43 PM   #13
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[quote=Briano7
I ordered mine for the combination of fuel economy,luxury and Toyota reliability. My first Lexus eta is the end of November. I will miss my 2007 TCH.[/quote]

luxury and Toyota reliability you get with a ES350 also. so why if not for fuel economy did you buy a ES300h and not the ES350 ?

The question was: What other reason would the majority buy the 300h (and Not the ES350) for?...Read what ElliotB posted @ 5:57 (back about 4 posts)

Last edited by MY100thcar; 10-30-12 at 05:51 PM..
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Old 10-30-12, 06:26 PM   #14
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The upcoming next generation Avalon will have a hybrid version. Having an attractive alternative could ease some of the demand for the Lexus 300h.

From the pictures the new Avalon is very nice and I've seen three early reviews that are VERY favorable.
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Old 10-30-12, 06:43 PM   #15
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despite being based on the same platform, the Avalon has a very different interior. the nav screen is touchscreen, so you lose remote touch, but gain a nice cubby hole space.

the buttons are capacitance, which seems nice and "techy" but you might change your mind when you can't activate it without wearing special gloves.

i did consider waiting for the avalon, but for resale value, warranty, and overall pampering, i went for the es300h
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Old 10-30-12, 06:43 PM
 
 
 
 
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