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Lexus miscalculated demand for ES 300h

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Old 10-31-12, 04:44 PM   #31
ElliotB
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Jerry, I am all for the hybrid version. I did after all order one. But the bottom line is that the typical/average fuel savings a driver can expect is about 20% - more for someone that does mainly city driving - less for someone that does mainly highway driving. Either way, you end up saving.

Keep in mind that not everyone who drives the ES300h will get 40mpg - some here have indicated they are only getting in the low to mid 30's, which is probably the range most will get. And not everyone will get only 24 or 25 with the ES350. For example, someone who does mainly highway driving will see very little benefit from the hybrid setup because the gas version does exceptionally well on the highway. Some who does a lot of short trips will also see little benefit at it takes several miles before the engine is warmed up and the hybrid system 'kicks' in. Drivers in cold climates will also experience less of an advantage. But overall a driver will do better with the hybrid model.

The question posted for this thread was whether Lexus got their production numbers right. They are pretty smart and I suspect they did.
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Old 10-31-12, 05:38 PM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElliotB View Post
JerryKK, your fuzzy math doesn't quite add up. I am guessing your numbers are probably based on EPA estimates. The real difference typically from a non-hybrid to identical hybrid (regardless of brand) is about 20%, or possibly a bit more. Based on 27mpg average (sometimes more) which is what I have been getting with my '11 ES350 since I bought it almost a year ago and 40mpg average of the 300h, the savings is about $500 annually based on $4.30 gas and your payback would be 5-6 years.
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Jerry, I am all for the hybrid version. I did after all order one. But the bottom line is that the typical/average fuel savings a driver can expect is about 20% - more for someone that does mainly city driving - less for someone that does mainly highway driving.
ElliotB..your fuzzy math doesn't add up at all.

With YOUR ES350 27mpg & ES300h 40mpg you say 20% diff. Not true That is a little more than 48% difference.

I showed in a prior post my ES350 to my ES300h diff. and I do about 80% highway.
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Old 10-31-12, 11:09 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by ElliotB View Post
......the bottom line is that the typical/average fuel savings a driver can expect is about 20% - more for someone that does mainly city driving - less for someone that does mainly highway driving. Either way, you end up saving.

Keep in mind that not everyone who drives the ES300h will get 40mpg - some here have indicated they are only getting in the low to mid 30's, which is probably the range most will get. And not everyone will get only 24 or 25 with the ES350...............a driver will do better with the hybrid model.
Elliot - I think most people have already stated that they are getting closer to 40 mpg - I only have 400 miles on my car and I am getting 39.3. Based on my previous experience with gas engine cars (we also have a 2007 IS 250 - rated 24/31 - we are averaging 27) - I would guess a car like the ES 350 rated at 21/31 -- will get in the mid-20s - even if we say 26 that is over a 50% difference. Whether it takes two years or five years to make up the difference - the one thing I can say for sure is that most people will be happy with their 300h!
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Old 11-01-12, 01:23 AM   #34
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My100th, what I said was is that the average driver can expect about a 20% savings with a hybrid vs the exact same vehicle with the standard gas configuration. I cannot comment on the 300h vs my 2011 ES350 as I have not received my vehicle yet.

If you look through this thread:

http://www.clublexus.com/forums/es35...s-mileage.html

You will see that some are getting around 40, and some are not.

From that thread:

"My first full tank ended up getting me 32mpg. Im guessing it will improve as i learn to drive a hybrid differently."

This driver is not alone. Typically drivers interested in high fuel efficiency with their hybrid change the way they drive. And their numbers improve. The same is true of regular gas vehicles. But most don't or won't do it.

Some of you may find this link of interest with a driver regularly getting 60mpg with his 2012 Camry Hybrid (same engine as the 300h).

http://www.greenhybrid.com/discuss/f...9-9-mpg-28271/



20% less of 40mpg is 32mpg. 20% less of 38mpg is 30.5mpg. 20% less of 35mpg is 28mpg. I suspect that most drivers will end up with fuel efficiency in the mid to upper 30's.

Also from that linked thread above:

"I drove most of the way at 70 mph. I noticed that I was getting 35-36 mpg" Those numbers sound right. I get about that with my ES350. Most hybrids save their owners the least on the highway.

Based on $4.27 gas and someone driving 900 miles per month, 11,000 per year, for the owner who gets 27mpg with a gas model vs 40mpg with the hybrid, he will save about $25 per tank, a bit less than $50 per month, which works out to about $550 a year. And have a 5 year payback based on the $2700 price differential. Higher fuel prices obviously favor a hybrid owner. But as gas prices drop (and they will), the advantage diminishes a bit. If gas dropped $1 per gallon to 3.27, the payback period incrases to over 6 1/2 years.

Again, I am pro hybrid, but 5+ years of hybrid driving has helped me with understand the reality of hybrid driving (and yes, it is a positive experience).

This driver:

http://www.greenhybrid.com/discuss/f...9-9-mpg-28271/

is getting almost 60mpg with his Camry hybrid which uses the same engine configuation as the Lexus ES300h.

Last edited by ElliotB; 11-01-12 at 01:38 AM..
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Old 11-01-12, 06:59 AM   #35
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The terrain of where you're driving matters a great deal. If you live in a place with a lot of hills, you won't get the 40mpg, or if u have a daily route that has a stop light/stop sign along an uphill route.

The battery is the source of the higher mileage and the gas kicks in with any sort of meaningful acceleration. Unless you live in an isolated area, you can not accelerate with battery alone without seriously pissing off traffic. And acceleration is the killer of mpg.
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Old 11-01-12, 07:52 AM   #36
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[QUOTE=JerryKK;7575501]Well I was rounding off - I can only go by what Edmunds states for the ES 350 - it says the average MPG would be 24. So exact figures based on 10,000 miles: the 300h - gas would be $1,062.50 and the ES 350 $1770.83 (if I up the average MPG to 25 - it comes out to $1,700 annually) - that's a difference of $708.33 per year (or $637.50 if you use 25 MPG for the 350) - that still takes me three years to get even (or a few months longer if I up the 350 MPG). That's not fuzzy math - that is exact math.[/QUOTE]

Jerry, you are correct.

I had a 2007 ES350 From day 1 till I traded it for a 2012 RX350 @ 35,000mis. I avg'd. 26.4MPG ( mostly highway )
I have 524 miles on my 2013 ES300h and I avg'd. 40.3 MPG..(mostly highway) ...
That's a gain of 52.6 % over my ES350.
For me @ todays gas prices it will take me 2 to 2 1/2 yrs. to get even.
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Old 12-26-12, 06:24 PM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElliotB View Post
Not sure if the majority of buyers of a $45k for a car are concerned about fuel efficiency. I suspect the reason low availability of the ES300h in California (and other regions that may have a low supply) is due to some other reason.
bbump.

for me it was access to the HOV lane on I95. should save 5-10 min each way 5x days /wk x 50 wks/yr.

easy to justify the difference in price.
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Old 01-18-13, 09:42 AM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElliotB View Post
My100th, what I said was is that the average driver can expect about a 20% savings with a hybrid vs the exact same vehicle with the standard gas configuration. I cannot comment on the 300h vs my 2011 ES350 as I have not received my vehicle yet.

If you look through this thread:

http://www.clublexus.com/forums/es35...s-mileage.html

You will see that some are getting around 40, and some are not.

From that thread:

"My first full tank ended up getting me 32mpg. Im guessing it will improve as i learn to drive a hybrid differently."

This driver is not alone. Typically drivers interested in high fuel efficiency with their hybrid change the way they drive. And their numbers improve. The same is true of regular gas vehicles. But most don't or won't do it.

Some of you may find this link of interest with a driver regularly getting 60mpg with his 2012 Camry Hybrid (same engine as the 300h).

http://www.greenhybrid.com/discuss/f...9-9-mpg-28271/



20% less of 40mpg is 32mpg. 20% less of 38mpg is 30.5mpg. 20% less of 35mpg is 28mpg. I suspect that most drivers will end up with fuel efficiency in the mid to upper 30's.

Also from that linked thread above:

"I drove most of the way at 70 mph. I noticed that I was getting 35-36 mpg" Those numbers sound right. I get about that with my ES350. Most hybrids save their owners the least on the highway.

Based on $4.27 gas and someone driving 900 miles per month, 11,000 per year, for the owner who gets 27mpg with a gas model vs 40mpg with the hybrid, he will save about $25 per tank, a bit less than $50 per month, which works out to about $550 a year. And have a 5 year payback based on the $2700 price differential. Higher fuel prices obviously favor a hybrid owner. But as gas prices drop (and they will), the advantage diminishes a bit. If gas dropped $1 per gallon to 3.27, the payback period incrases to over 6 1/2 years.

Again, I am pro hybrid, but 5+ years of hybrid driving has helped me with understand the reality of hybrid driving (and yes, it is a positive experience).

This driver:

http://www.greenhybrid.com/discuss/f...9-9-mpg-28271/

is getting almost 60mpg with his Camry hybrid which uses the same engine configuation as the Lexus ES300h.
>>>
Agree, Good summary.
The final out of the door price difference between ES300h vs ES350 is more than $3500 at least for the smilar featured cars. Consider Taxes, discounts,..etc
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Old 01-18-13, 04:36 PM   #39
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>>>
Agree, Good summary.
The final out of the door price difference between ES300h vs ES350 is more than $3500 at least for the smilar featured cars. Consider Taxes, discounts,..etc
You really can't say that because the person buying the ES300h may have gotten a great deal and the person buying the ES350 may not have. The difference may be as small as $2,000. Where we live in California - we will not see sub-$4 gas (and I never want to say never).............for me it was the right decision to get the 300h - for the next person: perhaps not.
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Old 01-20-13, 07:03 PM   #40
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Tedster nailed it for me too. Trying to balance a nice luxury sedan for hauling around clients and being somewhat conscientious about needlessly burning fuel idling in CA traffic. I like the understated recycled NuLux & bamboo interior too. Although I gave up some HP and few ultra luxury trim options from my previous 07 ES350, I haven't missed them yet in my 300h. I may be in the group who doesn't need to measure fuel & ROI, but the 300h feels right to me.

Perhaps I'm one more hybrid vote on the road. I imagine lots more hybrids would make a difference to our economy and environment. I'll hope Lexus has to increase production to meet market demand.

BTW, for me, less than 2k price uplift in purchase price from 350 to 300h

Peace.
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Old 01-21-13, 06:41 AM   #41
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Here in Ontario where gas is currently $1.22 / litre ($4.62 / U.S. Gallon) and the MSRP price differential between the fully loaded ES 350 and the fully loaded Es300h is only $1,450, it's a no brainer getting the hybrid over the gas version, unless you have a major problem with the difference in acceleration and horsepower between the two models. Having driven them both when considering my purchase, I definitely noticed a difference, but the Hybrid had more than enough power for my purposes.

Right now on my second tank I am getting 36.2 mpg in cold weather with 50/50 highway and city driving. I will have no problem making up the price differential within a reasonable time at our gas prices and that fuel efficiency.

In Canada at least, they should probably expect higher than 25% share for the hybrid version, if people do the math and some research.
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Old 01-22-13, 06:44 AM   #42
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The price differential for me was $2,100, an amount that I believe can be recouped in a reasonable time period. The dealer where we purchased said that they are selling about 25% hybrids.
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Old 02-03-13, 09:29 AM   #43
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Stopped by Lexus of Escondido today to get a free car wash. We live too far to make frequent visits. I asked three sales representatives, independently, how the ES 300h was doing. They collectively stated that the 300h comprised about 50-60% of their ES sales. Production has met demand and they are not experiencing as much back log as they did in the past. The 300h may be more popular in the Southwest due to our higher gas prices and dependence on a very large freeway network.
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Old 02-03-13, 11:31 AM   #44
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The 300h may be more popular in the Southwest due to our higher gas prices and dependence on a very large freeway network.
Make that all of California - we live on the Central Coast and our gas just went back up over $4.00 a gallon.

Which brings up a question: I got gas last night (I think for the fourth time in four months) - according to the computer we had about 40 miles remaining and the needle was almost on empty. So I filled it up and squeezed as much as I could into the tank and it took a tad over 14 gallons. With a 17 gallon tank - it would mean that when it says you have no miles remaining I am guessing that you still have at least two gallons in the tank???
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Old 02-03-13, 02:18 PM   #45
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Over on Car Chat I saw some information that said in January '13, 23% of Lexus sales were hybrids. The wording made it sound like that included all hybrids offered by the brand.
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Old 02-03-13, 02:18 PM
 
 
 
 
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