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Lexus miscalculated demand for ES 300h

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Old 10-30-12, 05:52 PM   #16
JerryKK
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Yes, I am sure most of us bought the 300h specifically because the hybrid gets 40 MPG - especially here in California with high gas prices. Also, with the 300h being just $2,000 - $2,700 (depending on your deal) more than the 350 - and you get the exact same car (except, of course, the 350 is more powerful) - for me it was a no brainer.
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Old 10-30-12, 06:14 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by MY100thcar View Post
What other reason would the majority buy the 300h for ?... It's the only reason I bought one.

There are fewer (Very few) 300h's here in the northeast also.
I had to have one trucked in from out of state, none of the 5 closest dealers had one.(except for ones without Navigation).
Lexus only built 25% for now, that will have to change.
And it's the reason I bought mine!!!
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Old 10-31-12, 05:42 AM   #18
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Not sure if the majority of buyers of a $45k for a car are concerned about fuel efficiency. I suspect the reason low availability of the ES300h in California (and other regions that may have a low supply) is due to some other reason.
I know quite a few professionals (physicians, dentists etc.) who are budget conscious. They are now middle aged, in their peak earning years and are now ready to upgrade after years of owning basic vehicles. They can't pull the trigger on purchasing BMW's or Mercedes', because their friends and family members constantly complain about the repair bills on theses vehicles. They've had ten years of trouble free ownership of their Toyotas. They read Consumer Reports. Many hybrids come at a $6-10K premium, which would take ten years to recoup. A $2.7K premium takes three to four years. They read the news, the worlds appeitite for gas is insatiable, we may be paying $5 per gallon or more for gas in the future, like the Europeans. They first had their eye on the ES 350, but 300h caught the corner of their eye in the showroom. It fits the bill and they make their move.
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Old 10-31-12, 07:57 AM   #19
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I know quite a few professionals (physicians, dentists etc.) who are budget conscious. They are now middle aged, in their peak earning years and are now ready to upgrade after years of owning basic vehicles. They can't pull the trigger on purchasing BMW's or Mercedes', because their friends and family members constantly complain about the repair bills on theses vehicles. They've had ten years of trouble free ownership of their Toyotas. They read Consumer Reports. Many hybrids come at a $6-10K premium, which would take ten years to recoup. A $2.7K premium takes three to four years. They read the news, the worlds appeitite for gas is insatiable, we may be paying $5 per gallon or more for gas in the future, like the Europeans. They first had their eye on the ES 350, but 300h caught the corner of their eye in the showroom. It fits the bill and they make their move.
Wow ! You've nailed it. I'm a retired Mechanical Engineer. Own a 2000 BMW Z-3 2.8 (purchased new). Had numerous company cars over the years which were not Toyotas so I know the difference between Toyota products and the rest. Our family daily drivers have always been Toyotas.............1983 Tercel (drove it 'til the wheels fell off, awesome reliability), 1996 Corolla (bullet proof reliability !), 1999 Tercel (recently totaled in a accident) that would not quit.

I love my Z-3 but have had some issues that would be unthinkable in a Toyota. I vowed never to own a BMW as a daily driver. Just too expensive to maintain. Compared to a Toyota there was no comparison in reliability.

We bought a 2005 Prius a few years ago on the expectation that there would be a big time saving on gas + reported reliability that was beyond normal Toyota standards. We were not disappointed ! That dispelled any reservations I had about Toyota's Hybrid Synergy Drive.

I was excited when they announced the HS250h and went to the Detroit Auto Show at it's debut. I said to myself........close but no cigar. The CT200h came out primarily focussed on the european market..........a little too small for my taste, but close. It least it had a folding back seat. What I wanted
was the ES (jazzed up), in a hybrid with a split folding back seat. With the announcement at the NY Auto Show and the price diferential between the ES350 and ES300h , it was a non-brainer for purchase. No split folding rear seat but close enough. It's on order and expected end of November.

This will be my first Lexus and it could well be my last purchased (as opposed to leased) car.
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Old 10-31-12, 08:24 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by Tedster View Post
I know quite a few professionals (physicians, dentists etc.) who are budget conscious. They are now middle aged, in their peak earning years and are now ready to upgrade after years of owning basic vehicles. They can't pull the trigger on purchasing BMW's or Mercedes', because their friends and family members constantly complain about the repair bills on theses vehicles. They've had ten years of trouble free ownership of their Toyotas. They read Consumer Reports. Many hybrids come at a $6-10K premium, which would take ten years to recoup. A $2.7K premium takes three to four years. They read the news, the worlds appeitite for gas is insatiable, we may be paying $5 per gallon or more for gas in the future, like the Europeans. They first had their eye on the ES 350, but 300h caught the corner of their eye in the showroom. It fits the bill and they make their move.
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Old 10-31-12, 09:15 AM   #21
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If someone was truly concerned with saving money, they would not be buying a $45k vehicle in the first place. Not that it isn't nice to save money on gas when you can, but for most, a Lexus hybrid (or even a regular Lexus vehicle) is out of reach. And for those that do buy it, they likely can afford the fuel costs. Again, it is nice to save money on gas, but it takes a long time to recoup the extra cost of the hybrid, 3-5 years or more. Most people tend not to keep cars as long as it takes to recoup the $$$$ anyway and for typical drivers. Tthe savings for most are only about 20%. Not that 20% isn't significant, but again, I don't think most Lexus drivers are in the same financial state as someone buying an econobox.

If hybrids were THE answer, everyone would be buying and driving them. Many more non-hybrid vehicles are sold than hybrids. In fact, there was a report recently that hybrid owners tend NOT to be repeat hybrid buyers. I have been driving hybrids since 2006 except for this last year when I traded my 2009 Camry hybrid for the ES350. While I was not thrilled with the switch with regards to fuel economy, the additional cost is minimal. But after doing the math, I figured out the savings were small. I consistently averaged 35-36mpg with my Camry and have consistently averaged 27-28mpg with the ES350. For about $15 per tank extra in fuel costs, I haven't lost any sleep over the additional $30-$45/month extra I have been paying in fuel.

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Old 10-31-12, 10:25 AM   #22
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If someone was truly concerned with saving money, they would not be buying a $45k vehicle in the first place. Not that it isn't nice to save money on gas when you can, but for most, a Lexus hybrid (or even a regular Lexus vehicle) is out of reach. And for those that do buy it, they likely can afford the fuel costs. Again, it is nice to save money on gas, but it takes a long time to recoup the extra cost of the hybrid, 3-5 years or more. Most people tend not to keep cars as long as it takes to recoup the $$$$ anyway and for typical drivers. Tthe savings for most are only about 20%. Not that 20% isn't significant, but again, I don't think most Lexus drivers are in the same financial state as someone buying an econobox.

If hybrids were THE answer, everyone would be buying and driving them. Many more non-hybrid vehicles are sold than hybrids. In fact, there was a report recently that hybrid owners tend NOT to be repeat hybrid buyers. I have been driving hybrids since 2006 except for this last year when I traded my 2009 Camry hybrid for the ES350. While I was not thrilled with the switch with regards to fuel economy, the additional cost is minimal. But after doing the math, I figured out the savings were small. I consistently averaged 35-36mpg with my Camry and have consistently averaged 27-28mpg with the ES350. For about $15 per tank extra in fuel costs, I haven't lost any sleep over the additional $30-$45/month extra I have been paying in fuel.
I hear you. In terms of recouping the extra cost of the hybrid............in light of today's investment climate let me know if you can find a guaranteed investment that returns my money back in 3-5 years (+/-) tax free. I'll be first in line to put my $ in.
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Old 10-31-12, 10:53 AM   #23
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For me, a v6 or a 4/hybrid comes down to a simple decision. Do I want to live with less HP so that 5 years down the road I'll save enough money at the pump to recoup the additional upfront money the hybrid costs? For me thats a big no. For former prius/camry hybrid owners- did you own long enough or drive enough miles to make the hybrid's additional price pay off? I've seen a lot of hybrids in taxi service in Vegas. That seems to make sense (additional cost/gas saving) math wise.
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Old 10-31-12, 10:55 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by ElliotB View Post
If someone was truly concerned with saving money, they would not be buying a $45k vehicle in the first place. Not that it isn't nice to save money on gas when you can, but for most, a Lexus hybrid (or even a regular Lexus vehicle) is out of reach. And for those that do buy it, they likely can afford the fuel costs. Again, it is nice to save money on gas, but it takes a long time to recoup the extra cost of the hybrid, 3-5 years or more. Most people tend not to keep cars as long as it takes to recoup the $$$$ anyway and for typical drivers. Tthe savings for most are only about 20%. Not that 20% isn't significant, but again, I don't think most Lexus drivers are in the same financial state as someone buying an econobox.

If hybrids were THE answer, everyone would be buying and driving them. Many more non-hybrid vehicles are sold than hybrids. In fact, there was a report recently that hybrid owners tend NOT to be repeat hybrid buyers. I have been driving hybrids since 2006 except for this last year when I traded my 2009 Camry hybrid for the ES350. While I was not thrilled with the switch with regards to fuel economy, the additional cost is minimal. But after doing the math, I figured out the savings were small. I consistently averaged 35-36mpg with my Camry and have consistently averaged 27-28mpg with the ES350. For about $15 per tank extra in fuel costs, I haven't lost any sleep over the additional $30-$45/month extra I have been paying in fuel.
I live in California - gas right now (regular) is about $4.25 - I got a good deal on my 300h and probably paid about $2,000 more than a comparably equipped 350. Driving both cars 10,000 miles per year - the 300h would use about $1,060 in gas and the 350 about $1,760 in gas - in three years I am ahead of the curve. Also, to be honest, if I were going to buy a regular gas-sucking car I am not sure it would have been an ES350 (since we almost pulled the trigger on an Audi A6 - the savings in gas between the A6 and the 300h is even more dramatic = a savings of over $825 annually).
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Old 10-31-12, 12:13 PM   #25
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I drive the hybrid for the quietness. Gas savings is secondary but not a huge factor. Also, sitting in a drive through or in bumper to bumper traffic irks me because I'm using gas and going absolutely nowhere.

I also like the torque of the electric engine. I used to aspire to a 3 series but after I saw the unreliability of them, I decided to pass.
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Old 10-31-12, 01:15 PM   #26
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JerryKK, your fuzzy math doesn't quite add up. I am guessing your numbers are probably based on EPA estimates. The real difference typically from a non-hybrid to identical hybrid (regardless of brand) is about 20%, or possibly a bit more. Based on 27mpg average (sometimes more) which is what I have been getting with my '11 ES350 since I bought it almost a year ago and 40mpg average of the 300h, the savings is about $500 annually based on $4.30 gas and your payback would be 5-6 years.

For anyone that really wants to economize, there are numerous other hybrid choices. Plus there are a number small diesel vehicles that get better fuel efficiency than hybrids.

But of course, if you get any of those, you just wouldn't be driving a Lexus! I can't wait to get mine!!!
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Old 10-31-12, 01:33 PM   #27
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Why does anyone have to defend their choice of car purchase? Each of us has to satisfy our own preferences and priorities and no one else's. It's sort of ridiculous to argue about personal choice.
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Old 10-31-12, 02:03 PM   #28
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JerryKK, your fuzzy math doesn't quite add up. I am guessing your numbers are probably based on EPA estimates. The real difference typically from a non-hybrid to identical hybrid (regardless of brand) is about 20%, or possibly a bit more. Based on 27mpg average (sometimes more) which is what I have been getting with my '11 ES350 since I bought it almost a year ago and 40mpg average of the 300h, the savings is about $500 annually based on $4.30 gas and your payback would be 5-6 years.

For anyone that really wants to economize, there are numerous other hybrid choices. Plus there are a number small diesel vehicles that get better fuel efficiency than hybrids.

But of course, if you get any of those, you just wouldn't be driving a Lexus! I can't wait to get mine!!!
Well I was rounding off - I can only go by what Edmunds states for the ES 350 - it says the average MPG would be 24. So exact figures based on 10,000 miles: the 300h - gas would be $1,062.50 and the ES 350 $1770.83 (if I up the average MPG to 25 - it comes out to $1,700 annually) - that's a difference of $708.33 per year (or $637.50 if you use 25 MPG for the 350) - that still takes me three years to get even (or a few months longer if I up the 350 MPG). That's not fuzzy math - that is exact math.

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Old 10-31-12, 02:53 PM   #29
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I bought my 300h ultra for mileage (for the large interior size compared to most other hybrids) and potential improved resale. I believe I will easily recoup my $2,700 in 2 years. I am a financial consultant and believe gas prices WILL rise significantly in the next 2 years. Despite the U.S. improving our position as ALMOST being oil and gas independent, prices will always be at the mercy of speculators. Look at Canada, which exports a tremendous amount of oil and they pay the equivalent of $5.50 a gallon (U.S. gallons).
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Old 10-31-12, 04:04 PM   #30
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BKMan, you're right. I'm at $1.20 to $1.30 per litre (equal to $4.50 to $5.00 per US Gallon) in Canada, and even with my modest driving (approx 12k miles per year) found gas to drop by $1200/yr compared to my old Camry V6, same engine as a 350. Camry was 11 litre / 100km and estimating 5.8 litre / 100km with 300h based on this forums more conservative results. The payback to non-hybrid ES is <3yrs. Or, as I looked at it, the road trips are going to be more frequent, pleasant and cheaper. Plus I won't have to stop on the highway as often
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Old 10-31-12, 04:04 PM
 
 
 
 
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