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Is consumer reports the most reliable source for reliability on cars in general
and the ES in particular?
Their survey goes out to 500,000.
What you see below represents the cost to repair for various categories of car systems of a car relative to the average for that year.
According to results below, the 2009 year would be the best year because of low cost and high reliability.
Just look around on Cars.com, carguru, autotrader, carfax etc.
There are more 07s, 08s, and especially more 2010s for sale than 2009s.
My theory is that people must be holding on to 2009s because they are more reliable.
It also makes sense because that was the last year after the model change in 2007.
Although that pattern didn't repeat.
The 2012s are less reliable than the 2011s.
The graph shows the year that has had more or fewer problems than the average model of that year in each of 17 trouble spots.
Each color represents the cost to fix various systems in the car.
The dark green is the most reliable and cheapest.
Then the other colors are less reliable and therefore more expensive to fix.
The order is dark green,
light green
yellow
orange
red, the least reliable and most expensive
That information can be a big help when inspecting and purchasing a used car. The Used Car Verdict summarizes the 17 trouble spots for each model year and compares that to the average of all vehicles in the same model year. We use these Verdicts to identify lists of Reliable Used Cars and Used Cars to Avoid.
Consumer Reports Reliability score totals.
What I did then was add up the total deductions from a perfect score of only the dark green circle which is the most reliable.
The light green is -1, the yellow is -2, the orange is -3, and the red is -4,
from a perfect score, which is dark green or most reliable.
I add up all the scores and get a total and that is what you see below.
If you are not sure my results are right, try it yourself.
For example in 2007
Engine minor is light green, so you minus one
Engine cooling is also light green, so you minus one again and you have 2 as the total
Drive system is yellow, so that is a minus 2, so now your total is 4.
Then just keep going to get the totals for each year.
The left most column is 2007. Next is 08,09,2010.
2007 -16
2008 -13 2009 -3
2010 -8
The 2011-2016 can be found on the consumer reports website.
I put the total points deducted here.
2011 -2
2012 -7
2013 -2
2014 -2
2015 -3
2016 -0
So based on these findings the 2009 ES is almost as reliable as the best years
which are 2011,13,14,15 and 16
and more reliable than 2010 and 2012.
So for me, I will be buying a 2009,
or maybe a 2010, because it comes with Sirius xm and a much better nav system.
The only other question to ask is:
Is it fair to compare the 2007 reliability score with much newer one, like 2015?
You would assume that cars are getting more reliable in general.
But you could also argue that Toyota and Lexus cars are getting less reliable,
than the cars they made in the 90s.
So you put even more weight on a 2007 rating than a 2015 rating.
Can anyone find a flaw in my analysis of Consumer reports reliability numbers ?
Is there any better reliability information source than consumer reports?
Dude, you are analyzing this way too much! Not everything can be decided by looking at charts and "reliability" numbers. You can't simplify and categorize everything into a single "year".
So much depends on the previous owner's driving habits, maintenance and mileage. Just find a well maintained, lowest mileage ES350 (any year) and you'll have the most reliable vehicle you've ever owned.
Learn how to test drive a car and evaluate a car's mechanical condition (or get a mechanic to do this for you). You'll be much further ahead than spending your time analyzing charts. .
Analysis Paralysis. For one thing your problems per year of vehicle is wrongly interpreted. 2007 shows that it has 16 problems areas BUT those are areas that have surfaced after being in service for10 years and many are high milers, not per year as you are alluding to. Also 1st year of the 5th generation Many vehicles from other manufacturers have hit the recycle bin by then. Many things to take in consideration, ...they just have to be analyzed properly and that can be quite a chore given all the info and it s credibility that's available today.. I`ve been a subscriber to Consumer Reports since 1991 and .....yes I fill out all their surveys....and I have been driving Toyotas and more recently Lexus as well. I was getting sick and tired of buying North American crap foisted on us by the big 3.No regrets. Their survey goes out to roughly 7 million subscribers .3.2 mil digital and 3.8 mil print. Only about 500,000 participate in the surveys as you say.
TrueDelta really is a great website.
I entered the repairs for my current cars
and have just begun to look at ES repairs and years.
For some strange reason they only have data for 07, 08, and 2013.
The 2008 Repair cost almost nothing compared to 2007.
2009-12 not even mentioned.
This agrees with the consumer reports data, that 2007 is the most unreliable year.
True Delta opened my eyes to possible ES repair costs.
21% of ES repairs are from $1,000 - $2,499
15% are from 500-1000.
Even though most of those repairs were about 120-150,000 miles.
It make me think twice about buying an ES with about 80-100k miles on it.
I would like to know what owners typically spend a year?
and what is the age of their car?
2007 Lexus ES repair cost distribution
$2500+ (6%)
$1000 - $2499 (21%)
$500 - $999 (15%)
$100 - $499 (56%)
< $100 (3%)
Last edited by jgcec; 01-12-17 at 11:00 PM.
Reason: clarity
Yes, the ES350 will not be as reliable as a Corolla....because a Corolla, may still have roll up windows...whereas an ES350 may have radar cruise control. The technology in these two cars varies greatly, thus of course reliability varies greatly. It's safe to say that the ES350 is more reliable than all of it's competitors, but it's not fair to compare it to an econobox.
Also, first model year for a re-design will always appear as less reliable than newer years due to little issues. I'd focus more on finding a car with a solid service history, low miles and an appropriate price rather than worrying about what year of car is most trouble-free. Because at the end of the day, none of that matters if the car you buy was treated like garbage or vice-versa.
With any used car the most important things are maintenance history, mileage and a clean CarFax report. One owner and dealer maintained is the gold standard, but those cars usually end up being the CPO ones at the Lexus used car lot.
In the last week I have test drive the following ES models in my search for my next car.
1 - 2005 330 75k miles Lexus Dealer $11k - In almost perfect condition inside and out A+ grade - drives like a dream
- suspension in excellent shape, the only negative is that it does not have a seat heater and color is dark maroon, not my first choice but OK
2 - 2010 350 74k miles - local lot A $15k - good condition overall grade B+
- some scall scrapes on outside and chrome faded on inside door handles
3 - 2009 350 80k miles - local lot B $15k - suspension not very good + engine running rough - Grade C
4 - 2008 350 40k miles - local lot B $16K - was in accident - the suspension was terrible Grade D
- the car was not in good condition mechanically,
5 - 2005 330 90k miles - Lexus dealer $10k - good overall, does not feel as solid or as comfortable as other 330 - Grade B, not worth $10k
After all these drives I am tempted to go with the 330 with 75k miles on it in excellent condition.
I am tending to agree with others that made the point that a well maintained car is the most important thing.
Although I don't want to get a 2007, because of many problems.
The other issue is that I am leaning toward getting a non nav car and installing an Apple and Android compatible head unit and back up camera. I don't use Spotify or Apple Music, but I am trying those out now and can see that as the future of car music.
So why get an antiquated nav unit that is obsolete, when a modern choice is available.
I figure that the lower cost of a non nav ES with a modern head unit installed will equal the price of a nav equipped ES.
You probably can't go wrong with a good 330. Personally, I'd prefer a refreshed 2010 primarily for the 6 speed transmission and 3.5 V6. The newer model also has more current technology and was the 1st year of the hard drive nav system. I owned one and it was a great car. Just a personal preference though. Good luck with your decision.
My first test is the ride, any rattles and how quiet it is.
If the ride has deteriorated, then what is the point of getting an ES?
Why not just get a Camry?
Also if the ride is not close to perfect, then you are looking at expensive suspension repairs in the near future.
How to test drive an ES
Then I also pay attention to the engine idling at a stoplight.
the vibration should be imperceptible and very smooth.
If not then it also show that the car was not well taken care of.
If the ride is almost perfect and the engine is also,
then in most cases the exterior and interior will reflect that.
In the case of the dark maroon 330, all of the above was true.
It was truly a like new car, also the seats were in really good shape and comfortable.
my 07 has treated me well
i have had the alternator and Water Pump replaced those are the two major repairs that its had to have the wp went at 80k and the alternator went bad at 109k i think
right now there is one major repair that needs to be done thats the Cat Converter for bank 1 dealer told me 1300 i did have a independant shop say 700
i am not sure if i will keep the car or get ride of it so don't know if i will be fixing it or not.
i just am now waiting out the air bag recal and until that gets done im driving a 2016 Camry that the dealerhsip is giving me to drive through herts.
when it is time for my next car i have a few picked out the 3 that i like are because they are lexus i know what the insurnace will already cost and i like them
i am thinking about the 2013 ES350
a 2005-07 GX470 for price reasons they are the ones in my budger those years.
or a 2006-2009 lexus GS awd 06 07-09 depending on miles and weather the timeing chain has already been replaced or not the 06 depending on miles.
so havnt decided on what yet but am leaning more towards the GS AWD
My first test is the ride, any rattles and how quiet it is.
If the ride has deteriorated, then what is the point of getting an ES?
Why not just get a Camry?
Also if the ride is not close to perfect, then you are looking at expensive suspension repairs in the near future.
How to test drive an ES
Then I also pay attention to the engine idling at a stoplight.
the vibration should be imperceptible and very smooth.
If not then it also show that the car was not well taken care of.
If the ride is almost perfect and the engine is also,
then in most cases the exterior and interior will reflect that.
In the case of the dark maroon 330, all of the above was true.
It was truly a like new car, also the seats were in really good shape and comfortable.
01-12-17, 01:15 AM
07-12 The most reliable year(s) Consumer Reports
