LexBob2

Good points, but I think you under estimated the number of Camry/ES units that have been sold. During the Jan-Mar '07 period, there were nearly 124K Camry's and ES's sold. No way to tell how many of the Camry's were V6's, since they lump em all together, but add those #'s to the 8 selling months for both new models in '07 and you have a big number of units sold.

The big unanswered question is how widespread is the problem. I wonder if we'll ever know.

2007es350

Sorry you misunderstood....I'll be more direct this time....I was laughing at your post because of your logic that because there wasn't a line of people pissed off about their transmissions at the time you were there means that not many people could possibly have this problem.

The wind noise problem is pretty much irrelevent and OT to this post, but I was giving you the benefit of doubt that you were being clever with your analysis...I guess not!

Didn't mean to rile you up....but this post is even funnier!

ps--if there are a bunch of hosed up transmissions...they would be in the back store room; Lexus doesn't proudly display hosed up transmissions in the front of the service deparment for all their customers to see.

dunnojack

we'll never know the real number of bad transmissions.
I think we only HOPE there aren't many bad transmissions just to make us feel better about our cars. We don't like to hear bad words about our purchase.


when i go to the dealer, all i know is that there are 100+ lexus's parked in the service lot. who knows what they're in for.

LexFather

Not sure. Basically 75k ESs+400k Camry's is 475,000
Say 10% (a very high figure) has an issue, that is 47,500.. That is a lot. A lot. I would figure if it really effect tons of cars, Toyota would recall before they sell ANOTHER 1/2 million cars.

If it's 1%, that is 4,750 cars.

Not sure how big the issue is

ES350Bob

I sure did get two in a row, built three months apart

as did osokuko get two in a row

as did gooch get two in a row

Statistically absurd to claim it is now or it was only ever a small number with this issue or potential for this issue. It is a widespread problem with these cars.

I'm going with in excess of 30 percent acklnowledging our own poll by member owners, actually, adjusted for the 2nd cars mentioned above along with my first, it is nearly 50/50 as your mention of the Camry poll is. (48/52)

LexBob2

I agree. No way for us (forum) to tell how big the issue really is and we probably won't know unless there is a recall.

ES350Bob

A recall will not reveal the number involved at all. Not all Tundra and Sequoia ball joints failed so we have no idea how many did fail or would have failed, just that the potential is there, same here, we can clearly see the potential.

The best evidence of a widespread issue is looking closely at the number of 2nd transmissions put in cars that also failed. No small number allows 9 out of 10 to report their 2nd transmission also failed. If only a small number were involved 9 out of 10 would report their 2nd transmissions were operating just fine and they report just the opposite.

LexBob2

You're taking a very small sample and applying it to several hundred thousand vehicles sold across the U.S. and Canada to arrive at your conclusion.

I agree there is a trans problem. What I don't agree with, is that we know with any degree of accuracy just how widespread it is.

ES350Bob

Very "small samples" are used to make determiniations about millions.

Don't hold your breath for a recall, because if 1 sick's figures are right for 10 percent combined Camry and ES, that is a loss of over 1.2 BILLION dollars to recall those vehicles as there is no fix, meaning refunds required.

If it is as I suspect, they would operate at a huge loss, in excess of 4 BILLION dollars to do the right thing and refund people's money. So they might be tempted to call it a normal characteristic, or excuse it off and attribute it to other things like gas octane, owner lack of driving skills, or claim it needs to learn, just as IS reported going on presently.

For something not to be widespread, you'd need to at least see clear evidence of some reliable fix using the supposed low failure rate part, you do not see anything resembling a reliable fix.

e-man

Yeah, I agree that it's really hard to determine the extent of the problem. Clearly, there are many cars that don't have the problem, and there are many cars that do have the problem, and it's hard to say what percentage of those people who don't have the problem report in to CL as compared to the percentage of people who do have the problem that come here to talk about it. I think we can all agree that a higer percentage of people who do have the problem would come to an Internet forum to air their concerns as compared to those who don't have the problem, so I don't think you can extrapolate CL's numbers to the public at large.

That being said, I've only driven one ES350 (a loaner car that I had last month for several days -- September 2006 build with 5,000 miles). It experienced the 3-4 flare (about 250 rpm) once after every cold start and then it was fine. If the problem is 1% of all ES350s built, and my dealer has 100 ES350 loaner cars (which it doesn't), that would mean that I had a 1 in 100 chance of getting a car with a slipping transmission. Seems unlikely, but I guess there's always the possibility that I got the only one in the loaner fleet that has the problem.

By the way, interesting discussion.

twister

Some thoughts about recall... Last year we got a recall letter from Toyota for my wife's '05 Highlander. It was such a minor thing, a clip that holds down the driver side carpet piece can get caught with either gas or break pedal, and this could cause an obvious accident. MINOR fix, but with a MAJOR life threatening outcome. I didn't even have to do anything about it since I put in Weathertech all-season mats and those go over that clip.

The key here is that recall was made because they realized it could be a life threatening problem (probably caused a number of accidents already), and that is what lead to this recall. In case of our beloved ES350 tranny flare, there is nothing documenting it causing accidents, etc. That is why they can come up with any kind of an excuse about tranny "learning" or its being "an expected behavior", etc. So, doesn't matter how many cars its going to affect. Recall will not happen, until some *lucky* driver will get stuck in the middle of the intersection with a flare at red light

ES350Bob

Alex...Some reports with Feds at NHTSA do indicate injuries attributed to the transmission acting up on both ES and Camry, not sure how many have to be injured before an actual recall is forced.

e-man,

Considering that it is implied it may be low numbers who suffer this, then low percent of owners with it find their way here, it is noteworthy those same low percent finding their way here should be reporting a near 100 percent fix when 2nd transmissions are installed to replace their first one, unless there is a widespread problem with the transmission in general.

It is the number of 2nd ones failing that is an eye opener, that, and those like me who got 2nd vehicles also with this defect. I may at times have bad luck in life, but twice in a row for me and 4 others who also happen to have found their way here is, IMO, something else entirely rather than an issue of small numbers when we were implied to be in the statistical minority suffering the first vehicle defects.

Then there are those who were on here, who ignored what was represented as a trend about the transmission, other issues too for that matter, went ahead and bought and they too ended up with a messed up transmission.

osokuko

Is today the anniversary of the ES release date or are we near to it, One year of battling the trans issue. Geez Wizzz how time fly’s when your having fun.

MD350

If you want to know odds, here are mine.

My car does not flare

2 different loaner cars I drove did.

2 out of 3.....66.6%

I think there are more out there that do flare, but the owners don't know anything about it. My Mother, for example, does not even know what a transmission does. She puts it in drive and hits the gas. No idea about gears, RPM, etc. Put her in a flaring ES, she would have no idea there is an issue. There are many owners out there like my Mother.

ESsearch

MD - I agree. I go by my personal experience as well:

My car - two transaxles, both slipped.

A friend in KC - two transaxles, both slipped.

Dealership loaner - Slipped

Scorecard - 3 cars, 5 transaxles, all slipped 100%. I have yet to ride in an ES350 that did not slip!

I know you and others have not had the problem so I do not overly weight my experience, nor would I suggest anyone else should. But, IMHO I do extrapolate my experience to assume that probably 30% to 50% do. Based on Toyota's and Lexus's response and people described as you did your mother however, I also assume that probably less than half that number is ever reported.

Pete