Can a $33,000 Electric Car Be Cheaper To Own Than A $20,000 Honda Civic?
01-10-17, 09:15 PM
#31
Lexus Fanatic
Those 8 and 10 year warranties on batteries and some other hybrid/electric-specific parts aren't just there because of marketing or public relations from the manufacturers. They are Federally required.
01-11-17, 06:52 AM
#33
Lexus Fanatic
Most states have laws taxing the production and sale of both gasoline and diesel fuel, and the private production of it usually evades those taxes. It may (?) also, in some cases, involve breaking some EPA rules on how gas and diesel fuel has to be formulated. It's somewhat like making moonshine/hard liquor, or making more legal beer and wine than one is entitled to.
01-11-17, 07:19 AM
#34
Lexus Champion
Your cell phone doesn't have the thermal management that are now used in EV's. Batteries in a cell phone are also frequently charged to 100%. However, you're right that even now, Li-Ions in cars won't last for more than 10 years (before SoC < 60%) even in carefully managed applications (including home/commercial storage).
To me, Li-Ion is the wrong technology to use in cars. This is why Toyota haven't switched to Li-Ions for their cars, and is only experimenting with it with the LC500h.
To me, Li-Ion is the wrong technology to use in cars. This is why Toyota haven't switched to Li-Ions for their cars, and is only experimenting with it with the LC500h.
01-11-17, 09:03 AM
#35
Your cell phone doesn't have the thermal management that are now used in EV's. Batteries in a cell phone are also frequently charged to 100%. However, you're right that even now, Li-Ions in cars won't last for more than 10 years (before SoC < 60%) even in carefully managed applications (including home/commercial storage).
To me, Li-Ion is the wrong technology to use in cars. This is why Toyota haven't switched to Li-Ions for their cars, and is only experimenting with it with the LC500h.
To me, Li-Ion is the wrong technology to use in cars. This is why Toyota haven't switched to Li-Ions for their cars, and is only experimenting with it with the LC500h.
(of a substance) easily evaporated at normal temperatures.
You have completely discounted the progress that has been made and will continue to be made on batteries. The current state of the science of batteries may be relatively low capacity and long recharge times, and over-heating tendencies (if charge / discharge is not properly managed) but the auto-manufacturers, not to mention the battery manufacturers, are all aware of that and are working on battery capabilities.
Just as the state of the science of internal combustion auto engines has not stood still in the past 100+ since they were first used, battery technology will not stand still either.
But, haters must be haters and will grasp at any bad news to prove their point.
Just as the state of the science of internal combustion auto engines has not stood still in the past 100+ since they were first used, battery technology will not stand still either.
But, haters must be haters and will grasp at any bad news to prove their point.
Planning the future on the expectation of technology simply solving all our problems is not a good practice. We don't know what form it will take, and what wildly different paths might pop up. Who would have thought that in the 30's, we'd have the capability to generate immense amounts of clean energy from nuclear reactions? Who would have predicted we'd pursue an inferior reactor technology, rather than thorium, because uranium could be used for bombs?
Forecasting isn't about being correct (we will never be correct), it's about providing a reasonable view of what's possible given the information we have today, and making decisions that allow flexibility in the future if it provides new and better information about what's possible. As I stated, it's expected that electric cars will be a significant market - but the expectation that we won't need gasoline-powered cars is completely unrealistic.
Last edited by Infra; 01-11-17 at 09:13 AM.
01-11-17, 11:45 AM
#36
Cell phones manage the charge state of their batteries just as cars do. They don't stay at 100% charged, generally a phone battery will deplete to some lower capacity before charging back up to 100%. I'm not sure that your reference to thermal management is correct given that cell phones will shut down if they get too hot.
01-11-17, 12:53 PM
#37
Lexus Champion
Thread Starter
I just love the high level of moral responsibility here!
"Hater": someone who disagrees with you, but for whose remark you have no factual rebuttal, so being rude is your remaining option. It's called an "ad hominem" attack.
The Union of Concerned Scientists agrees; it found that even when you add in emissions from battery manufacturing, EVs generate half the emissions of a conventional car over the course of its life.
And when you add in the emissions from the coal-burning electric plants (where did you think the power comes from?) and line loss from the generator to the charging station, the numbers get much closer - which is why the "scientists" (lobbyists) leave that part out.
"Hater": someone who disagrees with you, but for whose remark you have no factual rebuttal, so being rude is your remaining option. It's called an "ad hominem" attack.
The Union of Concerned Scientists agrees; it found that even when you add in emissions from battery manufacturing, EVs generate half the emissions of a conventional car over the course of its life.
And when you add in the emissions from the coal-burning electric plants (where did you think the power comes from?) and line loss from the generator to the charging station, the numbers get much closer - which is why the "scientists" (lobbyists) leave that part out.
manufacturing an electric vehicle generates more carbon emissions than building a conventional car, mostly because of its battery, the Union of Concerned Scientists has found.
“We’re shifting pollution, and in the process we’re hoping that it doesn’t have the environmental impact,” says Abraham. He believes that when you add all the environmental impacts, they still come out in favor of electric vehicles. (The Union of Concerned Scientists agrees; it found that even when you add in emissions from battery manufacturing, EVs generate half the emissions of a conventional car over the course of its life.) Still, consumers and investors should understand what it takes to make the materials that enable their green choices. “I don’t think there’s been much discussion of that,” Abraham says. “We can’t look at mining as an over-there thing and at Tesla as an over-here thing. They’re intricately linked.”
Overall, “the greenhouse-gas-emissions footprint of electric vehicles can be pretty high on the front end, as they’re being built,” says McConnell. “And so you need to get a lot of benefits on the other side, when you use it.” And after you’re done using it.
US electricity generation as of 2015...(with more coal fired plants scheduled to be retired by the end of 2016)
- Coal = 33%
- Natural gas = 33%
- Nuclear = 20%
- Hydropower = 6%
- Other renewables = 7%
- Biomass = 1.6%
- Geothermal = 0.4%
- Solar = 0.6%
- Wind = 4.7%
- Petroleum = 1%
- Other gases = <1%
In 2015, 94 coal-fired power plants closed, with the combined net summer capacity of 13,556 megawatts, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. To put that in context, the country lost roughly the same total capacity of all of Kentucky’s electric sector coal plants that year.
Another 41 coal plants are scheduled to close in 2016, with a combined net summer capacity of 5,326.5 megawatts. That’s slightly greater than all of Colorado’s electric sector coal plants.
Six states — California, Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, Rhode Island and Vermont — no longer have coal-burning power plants other than combined heat and power facilities. (Idaho, for example, has four small generators, all owned by the Amalgamated Sugar Company, which uses the heat to refine its sugar.) Massachusetts, Oregon and Washington have plans to close their remaining coal plants by 2025. Connecticut, Delaware and South Dakota each have only one remaining coal plant.
Another 41 coal plants are scheduled to close in 2016, with a combined net summer capacity of 5,326.5 megawatts. That’s slightly greater than all of Colorado’s electric sector coal plants.
Six states — California, Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, Rhode Island and Vermont — no longer have coal-burning power plants other than combined heat and power facilities. (Idaho, for example, has four small generators, all owned by the Amalgamated Sugar Company, which uses the heat to refine its sugar.) Massachusetts, Oregon and Washington have plans to close their remaining coal plants by 2025. Connecticut, Delaware and South Dakota each have only one remaining coal plant.
Last edited by bagwell; 01-11-17 at 01:09 PM.
01-11-17, 01:09 PM
#38
That is precisely why cell phone batteries don't last, 100% SoC is bad for longevity, so is 0% SoC. Thermal management is about keeping the battery pack at the optimum temperature during charge and discharge cycles, that's why if you have ever charged a Tesla during cold winter months, the car heats up its own batteries before charging takes place, likewise, when the battery is warmer than optimal, coolant is circulated.
The batteries in a car will probably last longer than those in a cellphone - but the same issues plague both, and it certainly won't retain a high percentage of its capacity after even 5 years. Tesla sells battery sizes based upon increased ranges of 10%-20%, which corresponds to increments of 15 kWh of capacity. Based upon actual data here (http://www.teslacentral.com/worried-...-100000-driven) you can expect to lose, for 5 years of driving and an average of 15,000 miles a year (I personally drive more than this, ~90 miles a day, sometimes 200 in a day, which is one reason current electric cars aren't ideal for me) and a loss of 2.3 miles / 10,000 miles driven, about 17 miles in 5 years, which is ~8% of the 60 kWh battery, or 5% of the 100 kWh battery.
This data (https://cleantechnica.com/2015/05/18...r-30000-miles/) indicates about double the rate of loss, or 5% per 30,000 miles (so slightly greater than 12% after 5 years of 15,000 miles / year).
The issue here, is how much value is lost by this degradation? It's not a linear function, as there is some threshold below which the vehicle will not longer suit your purposes, and therefore has no utility to you. I don't know if enough data exists on this yet, but it is certainly going to lose a greater % of value than the % loss of battery capacity, when considering the adjustment for battery capacity in isolation of all other variables (so, let's call it a "battery mileage adjustment"). This is significant and should be factored into any comparison of cost of ICE and electric vehicles.
01-11-17, 01:14 PM
#39
Lexus Champion
Is the energy used to source, obtain, refine and transport oil factored into these equations? BTW a petrol car does not maintain its efficiency over the lifetime of the car either, the engine wears out generates less power pollutes more (sometimes much more) uses more fuel. And it leaks fluids.
01-11-17, 03:07 PM
#40
Is the energy used to source, obtain, refine and transport oil factored into these equations? BTW a petrol car does not maintain its efficiency over the lifetime of the car either, the engine wears out generates less power pollutes more (sometimes much more) uses more fuel. And it leaks fluids.
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