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I'm telling you man... When even Bentley launches an SUV and Rolls-Royce will launch their own SUV (It will be called the Rolls-Royce Cullinan), you know the luxury sedan is shrinking.
I'm telling you man... When even Bentley launches an SUV and Rolls-Royce will launch their own SUV (It will be called the Rolls-Royce Cullinan), you know the luxury sedan is shrinking.
I'm not saying it isn't shrinking, or that SUVs aren't rising. Shrinking doesn't mean gone though. There is still a huge luxury sedan market, targets for success are lower than they used to be especially in the upper levels, but the 5 series still sells 60,000 units a year as does the E Class.
All you have to do is look at sales figures. The Avalon sold 71000 units in 2013, 67,000 units in 2014, and 60,000 units in 2015. The ES sold 73,000 in 2013, 73,000 in 2014, and 65,000 in 2015. Very similar production.
The Avalon starts at $32,650 and the ES starts at $38,000. Similarly equipped an ES is about $2,000 more than a comparable Avalon. Hence...most Avalon buyers chose the Avalon when they could have had an ES350 for similar money.
So you have just proved that the ES sold more and therefore Avalon is now pointless.
This is 5 series production worldwide and US sales. You may find it interesting that sales and production are up, and up significantly over the past 20 years:
If you compare it to X5 production and sales you will see that overall production is a 1/3rd of what the 5 series is, and in the US even the 5 Series still outsells the X5, and the trajectory for the 5 Series doesn't show a downward slide.
Originally Posted by Hayek
So you have just proved that the ES sold more and therefore Avalon is now pointless.
Slightly more, and how is a vehicle that sells 60-70k units a year pointless? Remember, those people could have bought an ES and did not. No guarantees at all that they would buy an ES if the Avalon didn't exist.
The argument that Toyota should cancel the Avalon is like the argument that Lexus should cancel the ES. They're not going to cancel a vehicle that is responsible for 25% of their total sales (in the case of the ES).
So you have just proved that the ES sold more and therefore Avalon is now pointless.
So, you'd be willing to pull the plug on 200,000 sales in the past 3 years alone?? As with all trends, the CUV/SUV trend will peak and then on to something else.
I don't think I agree that the large sedan market is dead. Look at the Avalon...plenty of people buy the Avalon when they could have an ES350 for very similar money.
different buyers as i see it. i know someone who's on his second avalon now who would NEVER think of buying a lexus. why? well probably because he had a blue collar career (electrician) and wants something 'nice' and 'reliable' but not 'fancy'. he loves his avalon. i've driven it a few times and hate the interior and the ride quality and it's not that quiet.
Originally Posted by SW15LS
All you have to do is look at sales figures. The Avalon sold 71000 units in 2013, 67,000 units in 2014, and 60,000 units in 2015. The ES sold 73,000 in 2013, 73,000 in 2014, and 65,000 in 2015. Very similar production.
just because they're similar quantities doesn't mean they're similar customers.
The Avalon starts at $32,650 and the ES starts at $38,000. Similarly equipped an ES is about $2,000 more than a comparable Avalon. Hence...most Avalon buyers chose the Avalon when they could have had an ES350 for similar money.
maybe but chances are they never even considered an es.
Originally Posted by LexBob2
As with all trends, the CUV/SUV trend will peak and then on to something else.
i don't think so for a good while, except for coming driverless 'blobs'. my take: cars were originally built by boat and (horse drawn) 'coach' builders, then the early 'mass producers' (ford, gm, volkswagon, etc.) built them any way they could without regard to efficiency, aerodynamics, etc. of course. over time they got shorter in height, more efficient, more reliable, more powerful, and in a variety of sizes (mainly lengths). the 'revolution' came with a) the chrysler dodge minivan, b) the first popular suv, the ford explorer, and from then on, modern aerodynamics allowed for 'tall sedans' (cuvs) to be made that are still pretty efficient yet MUCH more practical for the vast majority of people whether young and putting outdoor stuff in, or families with tons of stuff, or old and need something easy to get in and out of. essentially, i think the sedan has definitely peaked and the numbers back that up. are sedans going away? of course not.
different buyers as i see it. i know someone who's on his second avalon now who would NEVER think of buying a lexus. why? well probably because he had a blue collar career (electrician) and wants something 'nice' and 'reliable' but not 'fancy'. he loves his avalon. i've driven it a few times and hate the interior and the ride quality and it's not that quiet.
I agree 100%
just because they're similar quantities doesn't mean they're similar customers.
maybe but chances are they never even considered an es.
I agree 100%, thats the point I was trying to make. Those customers COULD have bought an ES whether they considered one or not, but they bought the Avalon. He was saying that segment is dead because everybody just buys a luxury branded car and thats just not the case. To say that the Avalon is superfluous because of the ES is a misstatement.
Obviously, Toyota does not consider the Avalon to be redundant, otherwise they would have dumped it long ago.
I am thinking that each Avalon sold provides great profit to Toyota, since the development costs were probably paid off looong ago. So much so that they even keep selling it here in Canada where the ES outsells the Avalon 3:1 and Camry outsells Avalon 22:1 (765 Avalons sold here in 2015).
If you compare it to X5 production and sales you will see that overall production is a 1/3rd of what the 5 series is, and in the US even the 5 Series still outsells the X5, and the trajectory for the 5 Series doesn't show a downward slide.
Thats a different story. The GS is a niche product, its more expensive than the RX on the whole, and the volume of Lexus sedan sales go to the ES. Lexus has two midsize mid priced luxury sedans, BMW has 1.
Here are ES sales:
Here are GS sales:
Here are RX sales:
If you combine ES and GS sales, Lexus sedans are selling just fine in comparison to the RX.
I agree 100%, thats the point I was trying to make. Those customers COULD have bought an ES whether they considered one or not, but they bought the Avalon. He was saying that segment is dead because everybody just buys a luxury branded car and thats just not the case. To say that the Avalon is superfluous because of the ES is a misstatement.
Basically I agree with you on this one. Sometimes it pays to choose the top-line sedan from a lower-grade manufacturer over the same size sedan from a more upscale one. There are other examples, but probably the best one I can think of, right off the bat, is the current-generation Chevy Impala, which, based on driving-pleasure alone, I would choose, hands-down, over its same-platform (and more expensive) Buick LaCrosse and Cadillac XTS cousins. Though the XTS has a more plush interior and, along with the LaCrosse, offers an AWD option that the Impala lacks, nether one, IMO is as comfortable on the road or as good a ride/handling balance. Consumer Reports also agrees, and gave the Impala one of its highest sedan road-test scores ever outside of the Lexus LS460, Mercedes S550, and Tesla Model S.
Obviously, Toyota does not consider the Avalon to be redundant, otherwise they would have dumped it long ago.
I am thinking that each Avalon sold provides great profit to Toyota, since the development costs were probably paid off looong ago. So much so that they even keep selling it here in Canada where the ES outsells the Avalon 3:1 and Camry outsells Avalon 22:1 (765 Avalons sold here in 2015).
The Avalon does fine for Toyota and so does the ES. They are essentially the same car just made a little different. No different to LX/LC. Some will say the Avalon is a nicer car while some will say the ES350 is a nicer car. Most people want the badge of the Lexus as it has more of a status symbol than the Toyota.
I for one like the ES better, has better prestige and the interior is much more appealing to ME. Some will like the Avalon better and good for them. I still can get over the fact that the Lexus has standard faux leather while the Avalon has standard real stuff, and I still can come to ever like the remote touch as the Avalon touchscreen is so much better. But whatever, I think they will still coexist fine.
To those saying cancel the es, good thing your not in leadership positions.
Exactly. Are we going to go down this beaten path again?
Hyundai is canning the azera b/c it isn't selling well, while lexus should kill the ES (even though it's a money maker) b/c some here see it's pointless/redundant or fill in the blank excuse______?
02-04-16, 07:20 AM
