rudyH

It's almost inconceivable to many of us today but ownership of many things is going to go away and I don't really have a problem with it. Cars, most large appliances, even housing will just be "leased" for lack of a better word. The choices will probably, though not certainly, be maintained. You will likely still be able to have a Rolls Royce level self driving module while someone else will have a Yaris level module. In the end, what's the real difference? I know that seems a stupid question but if I have access to my you name it object for as long as I like or as long as it's feasible to maintain, do I care? Nope. I know this sounds nutty but I think it's inevitable. I know I'll be dead before this might happen, but the way we think of ownership is just what we're used to thinking and doing. In a vacuum, any other model would become the norm. I have to go now. The nurse is handing out my meds!

rxonmymind

Just had a thought. Year 2054. What happens when the day comes and say a Veteran returns from war needing a prosthetic. You see where I'm going with this. At what point/percentage does the prosthetic maker own him or her? I predict only that prosthetics will become VERY advanced to the point it'll be flawlessly integrated into the human brain. I guess that's why we have the USSC.

bitkahuna

iTrader: (20)

at some point the govt will simply make your entire old car illegal as it won't comply with modern standards. even if they don't make it illegal, they'll make you have all kinds of additional insurance and pay additional fees for the 'privilege' of driving an antique car (and notably one they can't track everywhere you go although that's only true if you decide not to bring your phone with you .

see above. resistance is futile.

bitkahuna

iTrader: (20)

excellent post. i don't really like the end of 'clean' ownership, but the reality is as everything becomes 'connected' even if you own something outright, you're still going to be dependent on the vendor, or a service provider, or the government to make or keep it working.

when i tell clients their wifi no longer works because their router software needs updating, they look mystified like the 'dusty box' in the 'closet' is just supposed to run without change or upgrading forever. i explain that tech needs oil changes too.

(what's USSC?) anyway, yes, prosthetics that don't already will have telemetry and likely send data to the manufacturer, through wifi, get software upgrades, etc. and thus require service agreements. sure someone can go around with a 'wooden leg' instead, but i think the trade-off with the more modern device is worth it.

mmarshall

There have been attempts to do that in the past, mostly because of safety/emissions/CAFE reasons, but they haven't gone anywhere. The closest thing to an actual implemented program of this type was probably the Obama Administration's Cash-For-Clunkers program of 2009, which was not mandatory, but voluntary. (we talked about it some here on CL). It was a hastily and (IMO) poorly-thought-program that gave a Government subsidy/rebate to those who traded in old gas-guzzlers for newer, more economical vehicles. Unfortunately, it ruined perfectly good, still-usable, older vehicles, because, after the trade-in (at least the way the technicians described it), the law required the old engines to be started, run without oil until they seized, then junked...and, in some case, for the rest of the vehicle to go into the crusher. To add insult to injury, the paperwork for the rebates to both owners and/or dealership often got screwed up, with the rebates being stalled for months.

geko29

Actually it was even worse than that. The official process was to drain the oil, reinstall the drain plug, and then fill the oil pan with a mixture of 40% sodium silicate (liquid glass) and 60% water. The engine was then started and held at 2000rpm until it failed and could not be restarted, which typically took 7-10 minutes. Here's how it works:

The best sales pitch I saw for this program was "Let's destroy something of value and pay for it with debt".

Aron9000

Cash for Clunkers was really a tax on the poor more than anything else. In my area it screwed the used vehicle market up so bad that a $500-1000 pickup truck overnight became a $2500-4000 pickup truck. I'm talking about beat to hell 20-30 year old full size Chevy and Fords with over 200k miles on them that would not pass emissions going for that type of $$$$ . A lot of good vehicles were taken out of the market, demand completely outstripped supply, suddenly everybody is asking a fortune for their old pos that's on its last leg.

Lil4X

Think of it this way: When your car can no longer comply with the latest technical standards, it becomes - like an old house - unable to pass "building code" standards. You can rewire and replumb your house, even renovate to meet the latest building codes, but it's still going to be an old house with compromises. You will have spent very nearly - or perhaps more than the cost of a new home just bringing your old one up to the current standard. Then the guy with a case of dynamite shows up and you get to start over.

That's what's happening to the auto industry under out of control federal regulation. At some point it becomes uneconomic to retrofit your car to meet the current regulations, so it will be turned into scrap. Now just WHERE does this point lie? That's going to be a problem for your elected officials. What do they know about your car and your ability to maintain or modify it? Nothing. Social engineers trump Automotive engineers.

I'm afraid this is all leading up to federally issued homes and automobiles (aka barracks and pool cars) approved for your use and paid for by your tax dollars. This means no more Lexus' and likely a return to Trabants. Hey, it works on so many levels . . . basic transportation for four with little cargo space (you won't have much cargo to haul around anyway if the collectivists get their way), and the greenies get a car manufactured largely out of soybeans. I suppose you can boil and eat a door or fender when times get really hard. If it was a good idea for that other communist regime in the Soviet Union, why not in America the dutiful?

Skynet just won.

spwolf

it is not that crazy... just because you own your laptop, it does not mean that Microsoft will allow access to Windows source code to anyone so they can modify it as they see fit.

Same goes for your phone, tablet, etc.

Again, I assume this is mostly due to "authorized" repairs, since a lot of their profits come from there... this has been regulated in Auto industry though, probably not in tractor industry.

ST430

I would actually dare car manufacturers to head this route, because you know what, it will inspire consumer innovation in the name of open source, crowd funded automobiles. See how Mickey$oft had a monopoly on the OS, until Linux gained traction? Same mindset. If they want to move to an "licensing" ownership model, I guarantee you some smart entrepreneurs will be come very wealthy soon!

doge

No, there are too many barriers of entry for that. With software development, all you need is a few bright minds, a case of mountain dew, and a pizza and you have a company. Cars are more complex.

Nospinzone

Not quite the same thing (although similar), but the Beatles sang about this 50 years ago -

If you drive a car, I'll tax the street
If you try to sit, I'll tax your seat
If you get too cold I'll tax the heat
If you take a walk, I'll tax your feet

It's all about the almighty dollar, or euro, or yen, or .......

rudyH

Home 3D printing. It will happen. You'll still buy designs but should be able to customize them heavily to your own likes. Of course, there will be "jailbroken" 3D printers where all sorts of "Unapproved Designs" will be built. It could be fun! Why not have EVERYTHING like this? Appliances, furniture to some degree, electronics, clothes, you name it. If you think it's impossible just conjure up the oft used image of a person from the 1600's being thrust into life today. It wouldn't kill him, but he' be pretty stunned for a while. No?

Vladi

That's exactly why I said this legislation even if passed will not stick around for too long. Soon we will be printing small products at your local plant, then we will print electronic devices such as toasters and stuff and in less then half a century we will be printing about everything and most of it from home as well.

Might sound stupid now but your Sammys and Apple replacements will be built in your home. Of course I dont expect Samsung, Apple or GM to ever approve or comply to this concept but some newcomers will.

rudyH

I don't know. Apple and Samsung may be into it. The intellectual property is worth a lot. Printers can be programmed to not intrude on copyrighted features. Of course, there will be folks who find a way around it. Besides, who says any company need be involved at all? Capitalism, Socialism, Marxism, all the "isms" just may find that no one wants to play that game anymore.