View Poll Results: Big SUVs death ahead?
No, they will continue to be bought in solid numbers
14
56.00%
Yes, they will start a downward spiral to small sales figures
11
44.00%
Not sure
0
0%
Voters: 25. You may not vote on this poll
The Big SUV's death rattle
09-03-10, 09:04 AM
#1
Guest
Posts: n/a
The Big SUV's death rattle
http://autos.yahoo.com/articles/auto...-death-rattle/
Popcorn!
Popcorn!
FORTUNE -- Looking for bright spots in auto sales so far in 2010 is like hunting for diamonds in a parking lot at Wal-Mart. You are hard pressed to find anything, and when you do, you have to examine it closely to determine its actual worth.
Some analysts have seized on a zircon they may be mistaking for a diamond: the surge in sales of big SUVs. According to Dave Cutting of JD Power, sales of large utilities like the Chevrolet Suburban have risen 22%, while large premium utilities, exemplified by Mercedes' GL 450, are up 21%.
MORE AT CNNMONEY.COM
That's in an overall market up only 15%.
The mini-boom in SUVs is thought to be a sign that one, like frogs in boiling water, Americans have become accustomed to higher gasoline prices, and two, they won't give up their oversize vehicles until someone pries their cold dead hands off the steering wheel.
In reality, the phenomenon may be nothing more than a death rattle. Customers are hurrying to buy SUVs before they become extinct.
"With the exception of the new Jeep Grand Cherokee, no real SUVs are being introduced anymore," says Jeremy Anwyl, CEO of Edmunds.com. "Today, the ideal utility vehicle looks like it can climb Mount Everest but rides around town efficiently and smoothly."
In other words, it isn't an SUV but a crossover.
Crossovers combine the design features of SUVs like an upright stance, command seating position, high ground clearance, and all-wheel drive with passenger car characteristics such as a comfortable ride, easy handling, and decent fuel economy.
Starting from nothing 15 years ago, sales of crossovers passed those of traditional SUVs in 2006 and have kept on growing. They now exceed two million. Traditional SUVs, meanwhile, peaked in 2002 around three million, and now account for less than one million sales. So far in 2010, crossover sales have leapt ahead 24%, and crossovers now account for 23.7% of the market -- nearly a quarter of it.
Manufacturers keep adding crossovers to their lineups and they come in all sizes -- small, medium, large -- and soon a convertible. Nissan is scheduled to offer a droptop version of its popular Murano crossover in 2011. Honda CR-V, which pioneered the crossover category leads the compact segment, has sold 106,928 units so far this year. But it gets strong competition from Toyota's RAV4 and the Ford Escape. Among mid-size to large crossovers, there is a tight four-way race going on among the Chevy Traverse, Honda Pilot, Ford Edge, and Kia Sorento.
Some crossovers, like the Audi Allroad and Toyota Venza reflect a station-wagon ancestry. "Most consumers in this space want the look of the SUV but the driveability and efficiency of a station wagon," says Anwyl. The wagon look isn't very popular these days, which explains why Subaru raised the roof of its popular Outback to make it more SUV-like. But Anwyl likes the utility that wagons offer. "Our team believes the Cadillac CTS wagon is a far better vehicle than the SRX crossover, but people are choosing the crossover even when the wagon makes more sense."
As manufacturers discontinue old-style SUVs, they're moving their nameplates to crossovers. The next Chevy Tahoe is going to be built on the Traverse crossover platform, not the Silverado truck platform. And the 2011 Ford Explorer moves from the Ranger truck platform to the Taurus car platform. Equipped with Ford's turbocharged four-cylinder engine, it is expected to get 30% better fuel economy -- 19 miles per gallon city versus 13 mpg for the V-6 equipped 2010 model.
At its best, the auto industry is Darwinistic, with the new and improved driving out the old and outmoded, and the change from SUVs to crossovers is a prime example of how it evolves.
The crossover offers improved flexibility and utility without the penalties of fuel economy and comfort. It will be interesting to see how it mutates. The convertible Murano may be only the first step.
Some analysts have seized on a zircon they may be mistaking for a diamond: the surge in sales of big SUVs. According to Dave Cutting of JD Power, sales of large utilities like the Chevrolet Suburban have risen 22%, while large premium utilities, exemplified by Mercedes' GL 450, are up 21%.
MORE AT CNNMONEY.COM
That's in an overall market up only 15%.
The mini-boom in SUVs is thought to be a sign that one, like frogs in boiling water, Americans have become accustomed to higher gasoline prices, and two, they won't give up their oversize vehicles until someone pries their cold dead hands off the steering wheel.
In reality, the phenomenon may be nothing more than a death rattle. Customers are hurrying to buy SUVs before they become extinct.
"With the exception of the new Jeep Grand Cherokee, no real SUVs are being introduced anymore," says Jeremy Anwyl, CEO of Edmunds.com. "Today, the ideal utility vehicle looks like it can climb Mount Everest but rides around town efficiently and smoothly."
In other words, it isn't an SUV but a crossover.
Crossovers combine the design features of SUVs like an upright stance, command seating position, high ground clearance, and all-wheel drive with passenger car characteristics such as a comfortable ride, easy handling, and decent fuel economy.
Starting from nothing 15 years ago, sales of crossovers passed those of traditional SUVs in 2006 and have kept on growing. They now exceed two million. Traditional SUVs, meanwhile, peaked in 2002 around three million, and now account for less than one million sales. So far in 2010, crossover sales have leapt ahead 24%, and crossovers now account for 23.7% of the market -- nearly a quarter of it.
Manufacturers keep adding crossovers to their lineups and they come in all sizes -- small, medium, large -- and soon a convertible. Nissan is scheduled to offer a droptop version of its popular Murano crossover in 2011. Honda CR-V, which pioneered the crossover category leads the compact segment, has sold 106,928 units so far this year. But it gets strong competition from Toyota's RAV4 and the Ford Escape. Among mid-size to large crossovers, there is a tight four-way race going on among the Chevy Traverse, Honda Pilot, Ford Edge, and Kia Sorento.
Some crossovers, like the Audi Allroad and Toyota Venza reflect a station-wagon ancestry. "Most consumers in this space want the look of the SUV but the driveability and efficiency of a station wagon," says Anwyl. The wagon look isn't very popular these days, which explains why Subaru raised the roof of its popular Outback to make it more SUV-like. But Anwyl likes the utility that wagons offer. "Our team believes the Cadillac CTS wagon is a far better vehicle than the SRX crossover, but people are choosing the crossover even when the wagon makes more sense."
As manufacturers discontinue old-style SUVs, they're moving their nameplates to crossovers. The next Chevy Tahoe is going to be built on the Traverse crossover platform, not the Silverado truck platform. And the 2011 Ford Explorer moves from the Ranger truck platform to the Taurus car platform. Equipped with Ford's turbocharged four-cylinder engine, it is expected to get 30% better fuel economy -- 19 miles per gallon city versus 13 mpg for the V-6 equipped 2010 model.
At its best, the auto industry is Darwinistic, with the new and improved driving out the old and outmoded, and the change from SUVs to crossovers is a prime example of how it evolves.
The crossover offers improved flexibility and utility without the penalties of fuel economy and comfort. It will be interesting to see how it mutates. The convertible Murano may be only the first step.
09-03-10, 09:15 AM
#2
Lexus Fanatic
Americans have become accustomed to higher gasoline prices,
The wagon look isn't very popular these days, which explains why Subaru raised the roof of its popular Outback to make it more SUV-like.
09-03-10, 09:21 AM
#3
Lexus Fanatic
"With the exception of the new Jeep Grand Cherokee, no real SUVs are being introduced anymore," says Jeremy Anwyl, CEO of Edmunds.com. "Today, the ideal utility vehicle looks like it can climb Mount Everest but rides around town efficiently and smoothly."
A number of vehicles today, not just the Grand Cherokee, fit that description today. And, yes, they are still "real" SUVs, if you mean off-road-capable.
The next Chevy Tahoe is going to be built on the Traverse crossover platform, not the Silverado truck platform.
Last edited by mmarshall; 09-03-10 at 09:27 AM.
09-03-10, 09:23 AM
#4
Lexus Fanatic
1. It's classified as Sport Utility Vehicle - 4WD by EPA, official scorekeeper.
2. It's sized (including height and weight) like an SUV, easily comparable to crossover SUVs because it is.
3. Subaru calls it a wagon, for marketing reasons only.
4. Subaru wants it classified and had it classified as an "SUV" because they can take advantage of this classification when meeting CAFE requirements, safety regs (including dark rear windows tinting that cannot be done on sedan/wagon by the manufacturer), and unique emission regs.
In other words the "SUV" classification was no accident.
Last edited by IS-SV; 09-03-10 at 09:32 AM. Reason: sp
09-03-10, 09:32 AM
#5
Lexus Fanatic
Incorrect for the following reasons:
1. It's classified as Sport Utility Vehicle - 4WD by EPA, official scorekeeper.
2. It's sized (including height and weight) like an SUV, easily comparable to crossover SUVs because it is.
3. Subaru calls it a wagon, for marketing reasons only.
1. It's classified as Sport Utility Vehicle - 4WD by EPA, official scorekeeper.
2. It's sized (including height and weight) like an SUV, easily comparable to crossover SUVs because it is.
3. Subaru calls it a wagon, for marketing reasons only.
What you say is correct, but that was not the context I was saying. Outbacks have sold well, no matter what the roof-height was.
Originally Posted by IS-SV
Subaru wants it classified and had it classified as an "SUV" because they can take advantage of this classification when meeting CAFE requirements, safety regs (including rear window tint), and unique emission regs.
That was correct at the time, but the Outback now has the same safety/emissions gear that regular cars do...even a Partial-Zero engine now.
My 2006 also does...except for the partial-zero engine.
09-03-10, 09:33 AM
#6
going to guess big SUVs will continue to sell well and not just in the US despite the move to crossovers. i just got a used LX470 which saves a lot compared to a new big SUV. only thing now is trying to source parts, which im finding out is pretty hard.
09-03-10, 09:35 AM
#7
Lexus Fanatic
What you say is correct, but that was not the context I was saying. Outbacks have sold well, no matter what the roof-height was.
That was correct at the time, but the Outback now has the same safety/emissions gear that regular cars do...even a Partial-Zero engine now.
My 2006 also does...except for the partial-zero engine.
That was correct at the time, but the Outback now has the same safety/emissions gear that regular cars do...even a Partial-Zero engine now.
My 2006 also does...except for the partial-zero engine.
Today being September 3, 2010, and the facts I listed represent what Subaru is selling today.
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09-03-10, 09:48 AM
#9
Lexus Fanatic
Agreed on Jeep Grand Cherokee chassis.
But the difference (when compared to RX, MDX, other crossovers) is the offroad capability that has been designed-in and thoroughly tested.
That's probably what the Edmunds writer was trying to point out.
But the difference (when compared to RX, MDX, other crossovers) is the offroad capability that has been designed-in and thoroughly tested.
That's probably what the Edmunds writer was trying to point out.
09-03-10, 11:34 AM
#10
Lexus Fanatic
I think the large SUVs will still be sold but they will adapts and become more efficient . Americans are BIG and their kids are BIG. We are also well to do relatively and need space for all of the food and other stuff that we buy
09-04-10, 12:48 AM
#12
Lexus Test Driver
I think there is still a great need for large SUV's. Take one drive around any campground, lake, boat dock/marina, amusement park, ski lodge, rodeo, ranch, munincipal agency, police/fire/forestry department, construction company and you'll see a healthy showing. I agree, they are not the soccer mom haulers they once were. But the potential is there if they are built more efficiently. American still equates bigger to better.
Some further thoughts about the Subaru Outback. It is a niche vehicle and has been successful for Subaru. But that doesn't mean it's a wide seller or sells in masses. There is a difference. Generally speaking, Americans shy away from vehicles that look like station wagons or hatchbacks.
Some further thoughts about the Subaru Outback. It is a niche vehicle and has been successful for Subaru. But that doesn't mean it's a wide seller or sells in masses. There is a difference. Generally speaking, Americans shy away from vehicles that look like station wagons or hatchbacks.
09-04-10, 12:51 AM
#13
Lexus Test Driver
Perhaps it's the lower gas prices of the last few months that have fueled large SUV sales. Usually sales of these fluctuate along with the price of gas.
09-04-10, 01:21 AM
#14
Those who went out and took a bath trading in full size SUV's and trucks while overpaying for econoboxes are regretting it now, big SUV's suit my needs and style so no plans here to change, the Suburban has been around for 75 years, Americans and big trucks go together, so when gas prices rise just cut out the unnecessary driving.
09-04-10, 04:30 AM
#15
I think large SUV sales will shrink back to levels seen in the early to mid-90s, when they were considered to be trucks for hauling and towing rather than being driven by soccer moms. Some people will still need vehicles with that level of utility, but families that simply need to schlep kids to activities and go on family trips will opt for the more appropriate-sized crossover - just as they did with minivans for so many years.
I have to laugh that young parents still hate the minivan. Two of my neighbors with young kids used to have Chrysler minivans for the wives to drive. Both of them went to crossovers this summer, a Honda Pilot and a Dodge Journey. In one of the families, the father is a sales manager at a Toyota store for a large multi-brand dealer. I expected him to bring home a "Swagger wagon" instead of a Pilot.
I have to laugh that young parents still hate the minivan. Two of my neighbors with young kids used to have Chrysler minivans for the wives to drive. Both of them went to crossovers this summer, a Honda Pilot and a Dodge Journey. In one of the families, the father is a sales manager at a Toyota store for a large multi-brand dealer. I expected him to bring home a "Swagger wagon" instead of a Pilot.