Analysts estimate Lexus sales impact from ongoing Toyota recall crisis
02-09-10, 02:01 PM
#1
Lexus Champion
Thread Starter
Analysts estimate Lexus sales impact from ongoing Toyota recall crisis
World's First Predictive Sales Demand Indicator Says Toyota Demand In 28 Percent Freefall
By PR Newswire 02/05/10 - 03:15 PM EST
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10675...-freefall.html
NEW YORK, Feb. 5 /PRNewswire/ -- Autometrics' Pulse™, the first predictive demand indicator for new vehicle sales, has forecasted that Toyota demand has declined 28 percent (seasonally adjusted) in the U.S. since Toyota announced sales suspension and a recall of many of its models. Autometrics says that practically all Toyota models have seen demand decline, not only the eight models subject to accelerator pedal issue.
[...]
As of February 3, GM brands had increased their share as follows: Chevrolet (+9 percent), Buick (+17 percent), Cadillac (+10 percent) and GMC (+19 percent). In recent days, Ford Motor Company has become a new beneficiary, with an increase in demand of 10 percent. Other brands showed little or no change after the data was seasonally adjusted.
Toyota's luxury brand Lexus, which was not involved in the sales suspension but is recalling some models due to a separate floor mat issue, appears to have been more insulated from Toyota's decline. Lexus demand was down 8 percent as of February 3, while Scion was off 6 percent.
By PR Newswire 02/05/10 - 03:15 PM EST
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10675...-freefall.html
NEW YORK, Feb. 5 /PRNewswire/ -- Autometrics' Pulse™, the first predictive demand indicator for new vehicle sales, has forecasted that Toyota demand has declined 28 percent (seasonally adjusted) in the U.S. since Toyota announced sales suspension and a recall of many of its models. Autometrics says that practically all Toyota models have seen demand decline, not only the eight models subject to accelerator pedal issue.
[...]
As of February 3, GM brands had increased their share as follows: Chevrolet (+9 percent), Buick (+17 percent), Cadillac (+10 percent) and GMC (+19 percent). In recent days, Ford Motor Company has become a new beneficiary, with an increase in demand of 10 percent. Other brands showed little or no change after the data was seasonally adjusted.
Toyota's luxury brand Lexus, which was not involved in the sales suspension but is recalling some models due to a separate floor mat issue, appears to have been more insulated from Toyota's decline. Lexus demand was down 8 percent as of February 3, while Scion was off 6 percent.
Toyota Sales Socked with 75-Percent Drop
Edmunds.com Forecasts
January 29, 2010
http://www.autoobserver.com/2010/01/...forecasts.html
Toyota-brand sales will drop 75 percent during the sales suspension of its eight best-selling Toyota logo - 119.JPG models and some potential Lexus and Scion sales will be collateral damage.
"As long as sales of recalled Toyota models are suspended, Toyota will suffer about a 75 percent hit in sales," said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Ray Zhou, PhD.
Even though no Lexus of Scion models are covered under the sticky gas pedal recall and sales suspension, their sales may be down as well.
"During this period, Scion may be down about 20 percent and Lexus may be down about 10 percent because of damage to the Toyota corporate brand," added Zhou.
Edmunds.com has seen a fall-off of customers intending to purchase a Toyota model, based on the shopping behavior of visitors to its Web site. Meantime, Toyota's competitors are benefiting.
"In the past two weeks, purchase intent for Toyota has fallen from 13.9 percent of the market to 9.7 percent," said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst David Tompkins, PhD. "In the same period, Chevrolet, Ford, Honda and Mazda have experienced the largest gains."
Edmunds.com Forecasts
January 29, 2010
http://www.autoobserver.com/2010/01/...forecasts.html
Toyota-brand sales will drop 75 percent during the sales suspension of its eight best-selling Toyota logo - 119.JPG models and some potential Lexus and Scion sales will be collateral damage.
"As long as sales of recalled Toyota models are suspended, Toyota will suffer about a 75 percent hit in sales," said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Ray Zhou, PhD.
Even though no Lexus of Scion models are covered under the sticky gas pedal recall and sales suspension, their sales may be down as well.
"During this period, Scion may be down about 20 percent and Lexus may be down about 10 percent because of damage to the Toyota corporate brand," added Zhou.
Edmunds.com has seen a fall-off of customers intending to purchase a Toyota model, based on the shopping behavior of visitors to its Web site. Meantime, Toyota's competitors are benefiting.
"In the past two weeks, purchase intent for Toyota has fallen from 13.9 percent of the market to 9.7 percent," said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst David Tompkins, PhD. "In the same period, Chevrolet, Ford, Honda and Mazda have experienced the largest gains."
Toyota Already Recovering from Recall
Edmunds.com Data Shows
February 02, 2010
http://www.autoobserver.com/2010/02/...ata-shows.html
Since announcing the fix for its sticky pedals Monday, Toyota already is experiencing a Toyota logo - 119.JPGdramatic rise in purchase intent among shoppers on Edmunds.com's Web site.
"Toyota purchase intent fell from 13.9 percent of Edmunds.com car shoppers to 9.7 percent during the height of the recall frenzy," said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst David Tompkins, PhD. "Toyota purchase intent is back to 11.8 percent and seems to be climbing steadily."
"The Toyota recall stopped sales for about 55 percent of the company's models, causing its monthly sales to drop below 100,000 for the first time since January 1999," said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Ray Zhou, PhD.
"However, we expect that Toyota will make a full recovery fairly quickly," Zhou added. "And Toyota dealers may enjoy higher profit margins as they will have less inventory to offer because of the production stoppage while the company will likely boost demand through brand-building goodwill incentives."
Edmunds.com Data Shows
February 02, 2010
http://www.autoobserver.com/2010/02/...ata-shows.html
Since announcing the fix for its sticky pedals Monday, Toyota already is experiencing a Toyota logo - 119.JPGdramatic rise in purchase intent among shoppers on Edmunds.com's Web site.
"Toyota purchase intent fell from 13.9 percent of Edmunds.com car shoppers to 9.7 percent during the height of the recall frenzy," said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst David Tompkins, PhD. "Toyota purchase intent is back to 11.8 percent and seems to be climbing steadily."
"The Toyota recall stopped sales for about 55 percent of the company's models, causing its monthly sales to drop below 100,000 for the first time since January 1999," said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Ray Zhou, PhD.
"However, we expect that Toyota will make a full recovery fairly quickly," Zhou added. "And Toyota dealers may enjoy higher profit margins as they will have less inventory to offer because of the production stoppage while the company will likely boost demand through brand-building goodwill incentives."
02-09-10, 04:06 PM
#5
Lexus Champion
Thread Starter
Some more anecdotal evidence...
http://blogs.cars.com/kickingtires/2...-searches.html
http://blogs.cars.com/kickingtires/2...-searches.html
Despite Falling Interest, Toyota Still Tops New-Car Searches
Cars.com
Through January, Toyota is still the most-searched brand among new-car shoppers on Cars.com. However, the automaker’s share of that search is falling, and falling fast since the recall announcement for sticky accelerator pedals on Jan. 22.
Before the recall announcement, Toyota’s share of new-car searches in January was 12% of all new-car searches. The next closest brands were Chevrolet with 9.9% and Ford with 8.1%. After the recall, Toyota’s share fell to 10.6% of all searches. Chevrolet fell a small amount to 9.4%, but Ford saw searches rise to 8.7%. New-car searches overall rose 0.3%, likely due to end-of-the-month shoppers.
During this same time, Lexus and Scion search traffic remained relatively flat.
By David Thomas | February 9, 2010
Cars.com
Through January, Toyota is still the most-searched brand among new-car shoppers on Cars.com. However, the automaker’s share of that search is falling, and falling fast since the recall announcement for sticky accelerator pedals on Jan. 22.
Before the recall announcement, Toyota’s share of new-car searches in January was 12% of all new-car searches. The next closest brands were Chevrolet with 9.9% and Ford with 8.1%. After the recall, Toyota’s share fell to 10.6% of all searches. Chevrolet fell a small amount to 9.4%, but Ford saw searches rise to 8.7%. New-car searches overall rose 0.3%, likely due to end-of-the-month shoppers.
During this same time, Lexus and Scion search traffic remained relatively flat.
By David Thomas | February 9, 2010
02-09-10, 05:48 PM
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Do analysts actually track purchase intent daily? A waste of time if you ask me.
Anyways, not really surprised. Toyota has made the right moves during this situation, and looks like they are already starting to bounce back.
Anyways, not really surprised. Toyota has made the right moves during this situation, and looks like they are already starting to bounce back.
02-09-10, 08:42 PM
#7
Lexus Champion
Toyota has many years of goodwill they can call on. They are doing the right things from a PR prerspective. The real problem is that there really is very little wrong with the cars; the floormat issue is silly and counterproductive, the pedal issue is mostly in peoples minds. A good article in Forbes:
http://www.forbes.com/2010/02/08/toy...mepagechannels
Forbes says: "Under government pressure Toyota "voluntarily" recalled cars reportedly subject to sudden acceleration. Some of the acceleration is attributed to pedal mechanics, the rest to floor-mat interactions, but auto industry professionals tend to be skeptical of both, suspecting driver error and panic account for many reported problems."
So this might just be another Audi problem, and driver error is hard to argue. Audi pushed back against the dolts who were driving, and it didn't work too well. Toyota just has to suck it up and just pay money out to do a non-essential 'fix', and pay off the lawyers to the tune of a few billion. And try to keep a US government at bay which has a vested interest in knocking you down. They are playing against a stacked deck. We all know in the end we drivers pay for this legalized extortion.
http://www.forbes.com/2010/02/08/toy...mepagechannels
Forbes says: "Under government pressure Toyota "voluntarily" recalled cars reportedly subject to sudden acceleration. Some of the acceleration is attributed to pedal mechanics, the rest to floor-mat interactions, but auto industry professionals tend to be skeptical of both, suspecting driver error and panic account for many reported problems."
So this might just be another Audi problem, and driver error is hard to argue. Audi pushed back against the dolts who were driving, and it didn't work too well. Toyota just has to suck it up and just pay money out to do a non-essential 'fix', and pay off the lawyers to the tune of a few billion. And try to keep a US government at bay which has a vested interest in knocking you down. They are playing against a stacked deck. We all know in the end we drivers pay for this legalized extortion.
Last edited by Evitzee; 02-09-10 at 08:45 PM.
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02-09-10, 09:32 PM
#8
Lexus Fanatic
No matter how you cut it this recall will hurt Toyota, Lexus, and Scion. Obviously Lexus and Scion less but its the brands perception ( Toyota products )that has taken a little scuff. This is just a recall and not decades of poor quality cars (like GM) so I think Toyota will bounce back relatively quickly.
02-10-10, 11:21 AM
#9
Lexus Champion
Thread Starter
This one isn't so good, from KBB, however again it's website-based survey:
http://www.clickondetroit.com/automo...05/detail.html
http://www.clickondetroit.com/automo...05/detail.html
Buyers Flee From Toyota, Lexus, Scion
POSTED: Wednesday, February 10, 2010
UPDATED: 11:28 am EST February 10, 2010
DETROIT -- The number of car buyers saying they will not consider a Toyota has grown by a third in the past week as the company’s recall woes have mushroomed.
Kelly Blue Book www.kbb.com and its market intelligence research unit surveyed visitors to the Web site last week and found 21 percent who had considered Toyota now would not consider Toyota models for their next purchase.
This week the percentage has jumped to 27 percentage. Even more alarming for the company, 49 percent who defected said they may not ever consider the brand again.
Consumer discontent extends beyond models subject to recall, and even brands. Lexus and Scion are suffering as well.
Twenty eight percent of those who said they were considering a Scion and 23 percent of those who said they were considering a Lexus prior to the Toyota recalls now say they are no longer considering those brands.
Kelly is the industry bible for used vehicle values. It has already downgraded value estimations for Toyota products by 1-3 percent since Feb. 5. Today the company announced it will adjust values another 1.5 percentage lower when it releases new valuations Feb. 12 because of unsold models building on dealer lots. Even prices for new 2010 Toyota Prius hybrids are taking a hit estimated between $1,000 and $1,500.
Ford is the largest beneficiary from Toyota’s troubles, with 16 percent now considering Ford saying they were not considering the brand before the spate of recalls. Chevrolet is getting the second-biggest boost, with 8 percent embracing consideration of Chevy who had not before. Both Ford and Chevy are offering specific incentives targeting Toyota customers.
POSTED: Wednesday, February 10, 2010
UPDATED: 11:28 am EST February 10, 2010
DETROIT -- The number of car buyers saying they will not consider a Toyota has grown by a third in the past week as the company’s recall woes have mushroomed.
Kelly Blue Book www.kbb.com and its market intelligence research unit surveyed visitors to the Web site last week and found 21 percent who had considered Toyota now would not consider Toyota models for their next purchase.
This week the percentage has jumped to 27 percentage. Even more alarming for the company, 49 percent who defected said they may not ever consider the brand again.
Consumer discontent extends beyond models subject to recall, and even brands. Lexus and Scion are suffering as well.
Twenty eight percent of those who said they were considering a Scion and 23 percent of those who said they were considering a Lexus prior to the Toyota recalls now say they are no longer considering those brands.
Kelly is the industry bible for used vehicle values. It has already downgraded value estimations for Toyota products by 1-3 percent since Feb. 5. Today the company announced it will adjust values another 1.5 percentage lower when it releases new valuations Feb. 12 because of unsold models building on dealer lots. Even prices for new 2010 Toyota Prius hybrids are taking a hit estimated between $1,000 and $1,500.
Ford is the largest beneficiary from Toyota’s troubles, with 16 percent now considering Ford saying they were not considering the brand before the spate of recalls. Chevrolet is getting the second-biggest boost, with 8 percent embracing consideration of Chevy who had not before. Both Ford and Chevy are offering specific incentives targeting Toyota customers.
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