By Makiko Kitamura and Kiyori Ueno

March 13 (Bloomberg) -- Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd., the
maker of Subaru cars, has dropped 28 percent since Toyota Motor
Corp. became its biggest investor in 2005. The companies'
failure to take Subaru beyond niche-brand status may extend the
slide.

While Toyota is using a Fuji Heavy factory in Lafayette,
Indiana, to build Camry sedans, joint development of new models,
including a possible sports car, is still under discussion.
That's a setback for Tokyo-based Fuji Heavy, which is struggling
to refresh its lineup after a 16 percent cut in research
spending over four years.

Operating profit will slump 17 percent this fiscal year,
Fuji Heavy forecasts. The company's 3.2 percent operating margin
is the lowest among Japanese competitors after Mitsubishi Motors
Corp. One reason is an engine design that's twice as expensive
to build as conventional versions and is shared, among carmakers,
only by Porsche SE.

``Their margins are terrible, and with their low volumes,
they're at a huge disadvantage,'' said Edwin Merner, who
oversees $2 billion as president of Atlantis Investment Research
Corp. in Tokyo and doesn't own the shares. ``They may end up
becoming just a subcontractor for Toyota.''

With global auto output totaling 585,028 last year, or 7
percent of Toyota's, Fuji Heavy lacks the scale to spread costs
among more vehicles.

The company's shares may be little changed for the next 12
months at 410 yen, estimates Tatsuo Yoshida, a senior analyst at
UBS Securities Japan Ltd. They're already down 19 percent in
2008, making a third straight annual decline likely.

`No Light'

``I see no light at the end of the tunnel,'' Yoshida said
in an interview, citing rising raw-materials costs and a
widening quality gap. Subaru was the only Asian passenger car
brand to post a drop in U.S. sales last year.

Yoshida is among five analysts in a Bloomberg survey who
rate the shares as a ``sell.'' Ten say hold; one says buy.

Toyota, which owns 8.7 percent of Fuji Heavy, has had
better luck with truckmaker Hino Motors Ltd., whose sales have
been bolstered by demand from emerging markets. The stock has
climbed 51 percent since Japan's largest automaker increased its
holding to a majority stake in 2001.

Fuji Heavy forecasts operating profit will drop to 40
billion yen ($388 million) this fiscal year. It will fall 2.5
percent more in the 12 months ending March 2009 as the Japanese
currency strengthens against the dollar, Yoshida predicts. The
figure was as high as 91 billion yen in 2000.

Research and Development

Cutbacks in research and development spending, now 32
percent less than Honda Motor Co.'s as a percentage of sales,
limit the automaker's ability to attract more customers with new
products.

``Fuji Heavy is in the unfortunate position of being stuck
in this vicious cycle,'' said Tatsuya Mizuno, Tokyo-based
director at Fitch Ratings.

Vehicle development and production was part of Toyota's
reason for buying the Fuji Heavy stake from General Motors Corp.
in 2005. The companies are exploring collaboration on new models.
That could help the smaller partner boost output and lower costs.

``We are currently carrying out active discussion with Fuji
Heavy Industries regarding consigned research and development of
a Toyota-brand vehicle,'' said Toyota spokesman Paul Nolasco.

After a 3.3 percent decline in global sales in 2007, Fuji
Heavy is targeting overseas markets to help raise Subaru's tally
8 percent this year. That may not be easy.

U.S. Goal

The company is aiming for a 7 percent gain in the U.S. --
where Subaru sales fell 6.7 percent in 2007 -- and where this
year's industrywide total may drop to the lowest in a decade.
Fuji Heavy is counting on models such as a redesigned Subaru
Forester sport-utility vehicle and Impreza WRX STI hatchback. In
Japan, sales fell 7.9 percent last year as the auto market
posted a fourth straight decline.

Subaru is also struggling to hang on to niche markets it
cultivated.

After courting drivers in snowy climates by pioneering
four-wheel-drive in passenger cars in the 1970s, Subaru now
battles similarly equipped models such as Nissan Motor Co.'s
Rogue and Honda's CR-V compact SUVs.

Lesbian Fans

The carmaker is also facing more competition for gay and
lesbian drivers in the U.S., a segment Subaru pursued by hiring
former tennis champion Martina Navratilova, a lesbian, as a
spokeswoman in 2000. Other carmakers including Ford Motor Co.
and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG have stepped up advertising in
gay media.

``Subaru's stronghold on the top spot in brand awareness in
our community is slipping,'' said Joe LaMuraglia, founder of
Gaywheels.com.

Even the so-called boxer engine, with pistons arranged
horizontally, instead of standing up or in a V-shape, may not be
worth the extra production cost. The engine is also used in BMW
motorcycles.

Subaru says the boxer provides a smoother, steadier ride
that attracts well-educated drivers. Twenty percent of U.S.
Impreza buyers hold Ph.D. degrees, the company says.

While Toyota may be able to use the engines to enhance its
offerings, Fuji Heavy remains locked in shrinking niches because
consumers are unwilling to pay extra for the technology,
according to UBS's Yoshida.

``The sad fact is that most consumers can't tell the
difference,'' he said.

"Even the so-called boxer engine, with pistons arranged
horizontally, instead of standing up or in a V-shape, may not be
worth the extra production cost. The engine is also used in BMW
motorcycles.

Subaru says the boxer provides a smoother, steadier ride
that attracts well-educated drivers. Twenty percent of U.S.
Impreza buyers hold Ph.D. degrees, the company says."

=SLegacy99;3357442]
Gay people are also buying Rav 4s and CRV now.

Finally, if Toyota were really worried about their investment, they would modify the Venza to not be a direct competitor to the Forester, which it is.