Hottest Sedans of 2008

The year ahead is critical for several automakers and their success or failure will be defined by the tried-and-true template of the ubiquitous four-door sedan.

by Jim Gorzelany
ForbesAutos.com

Carmakers are rolling out eight new luxury sedans this year, and each one brings something fresh to the industry, be it style, performance or technology. Two other all-new entries from non-luxury automakers promise to heat up the premium segment.

How these vehicles fare with consumers is more critical than ever. The success of several manufacturers hinges almost entirely on which of the vehicles on our list of Hottest Sedans of 2008 will win over car buyers.

Troubled brands like Jaguar and Lincoln are hanging their hopes on luxury sedans that launch this spring. And underdogs like Hyundai are boldly venturing into this upscale segment as Cadillac and Mercedes-Benz gear up to defend their stake.

The luxury and high-performance sedans that appear on the hottest list are either all-new or significantly updated for the 2008 model year. (Click here to see a slideshow featuring all 10 vehicles.)

Sedans, loosely defined as cars with four doors and a trunk, command the largest share of new-car sales. Midsize sedans alone — a segment of the sedan category that excludes the compact, full-size, and luxury models — accounted for 12.5 percent of all vehicles sold in North America through the first 11 months of 2007, the highest sales of any vehicle type, according to CNW Marketing Research of Bandon, Ore. The next biggest seller, pickup trucks, had 12.12 percent of the market.

Some expect the popularity of sedans to go even higher in the coming year. “The move away from SUVs because of rising gasoline prices and other factors has certainly helped the segment, and not just the smallest of vehicles, but the midsize and larger ones as well,” says David Wurster, president of the Bloomfield Hills, Mich.-based market research firm Vincentric.

In the exclusive luxury market, midsize sedans are critical to automakers’ success. Three examples of note on our list of Hottest Sedans for 2008 are the Cadillac CTS, Jaguar XF, and Lincoln MKS. Industry analysts agree that each one is integral to its brand’s image and long-term profitability.
“The first-generation CTS helped bring the Cadillac brand around,” says John Wolkonowicz, senior market analyst with Global Insight in Detroit. “The original was a lot better than anything they had before, but this new CTS is truly world class.”

Wrapped in bold, chiseled styling, now a hallmark for the brand, the CTS impressed us with its secure ride and high-tech when we tested it. “It’s the first vehicle with which Cadillac can really compete face-to-face with Mercedes, BMW, and Audi,” says Francois Gravigny, an advisor with market research firm R.L. Polk and Company in Southfield, Mich.

Just as the CTS is charged with creating momentum for Cadillac, Jaguar’s XF has the potential to be the cornerstone on which the troubled British brand — currently up for sale by its owner, Ford — can rebuild its long-lost prestige. Jaguar sales in the U.S. were down by 26 percent through the end of November, according to CNW data, and that’s on top of a 32 percent skid in 2006, and a 33.7 percent decline in 2005.

The midsize Jaguar XF replaces the aging S-Type in Jaguar’s lineup with expressive styling and strong performance. After failing to successfully move down-market with the now discontinued X-Type, Jaguar is climbing back up the luxury ladder; the XF proves this with its high-tech motion-sensitive controls and the fact that it will only offer potent V8 engines. “The XF will bring younger buyers to Jaguar,” Gravigny says.

The fact that the XF borrows technology from the agile and entertaining Jaguar XK sports car bodes well for its performance potential on the road. But some industry insiders still question the XF’s ability to turn the company around. “I think they did a magnificent job on the XF,” says Global Insight’s Wolkonowicz. “But the question to ask is, ‘Has there already been too much damage done to the brand?’ Had Ford created a new Jaguar look and a new Jag image back in 1990, the brand could be well-positioned today.”

This spring, the 2009 Lincoln MKS will try to do for Lincoln what the XF aims to do for Jaguar. It will eventually replace the geriatric Town Car, based on decades-old technology, to be the storied brand’s top sedan.

This effort comes in the wake of Lincoln’s sliding 21.3 percent through November, according to CNW data. While not as stylish or high-tech as the Jaguar XF, the MKS is nonetheless a departure for the automaker. Its bold front-end styling, strong V6 engine, and available all-wheel drive should help it compete in a crowded market.

“This has the potential to do for Lincoln what the CTS did for Cadillac a few years ago,” says R.L. Polk’s Gravigny. “It’s a completely new look for Lincoln and I’m interested to see if it’s going to help turn around the brand.”

Hyundai’s aptly named and all-new Genesis sedan will make life for Lincoln and any other automaker competing in the $30,000-plus segment more difficult. As the most upscale model this Korean company has ever offered, and the first one with rear-wheel drive, it promises to mark the beginning of what Hyundai hopes will be a continued march up market. “This is Hyundai’s first attempt at the true luxury market to compete against cars from brands like Acura, Infiniti, BMW and Audi,” says Gravigny. “They’re not a player in this market, but I predict they soon will be.”

Some analysts compare the Hyundai Genesis to Volkswagen’s failed attempts to penetrate the luxury segment with its Phaeton sedan, but seem to think that Hyundai stands a better chance. “Hyundai has been shifting their strategy away from price/value in recent years,” says Lonnie Miller, R.L. Polk’s director of industry analysis. “They’ve raised their image, have diversified and broadened their product line, and are warranting the positive attention to be able to sell a vehicle in that market segment, whereas VW had such an immediate switch in direction when they brought the Phaeton into this country.”

Even Pontiac, with its new G8, is pushing the boundaries — not that most consumers can readily define what makes a luxury sedan. “Most people don’t understand the difference between a well-equipped sedan and a luxury sedan unless they’re intuitively focused on the brand,” Miller says.