-J-P-L-

Remember that our use of oil is going to continually increase.

China will be the biggest reason for this. That alone will increase prices.

mavericck

Big deal, we'll all be using bio-fuels or hydrogen by then anyways...

TheRupp

$5 a gallon? We almost hit that last summer when we had the "oil crisis".

bitkahuna

iTrader: (20)

I don't think so. I don't know anywhere it even reached even $4 last summer.

Here in FL the most I paid was about $3.30 I think.

mmarshall

Yes, China is definitely a factor.....and India to a lesser extent......but how much Chinese demand adds to world oil prices will depend on how much they find in their country on their own.
And, unlike with us, in China, you can basically drill anywhere you want, any time you want.

TheRupp

Okay, ya got me I'm being slightly exaggurative. I did see $3.899 a gallon in Chicago

mmarshall

Premium gas DID reach $4 and even $5 a gallon in a couple of places, but only very briefly during and after Katrina in August-September 2005...and before states started kicking in enforcement of their price-gouging laws. Then it went back down, climbed again to $3-4 a gallon last summer, then took a long nose dive during the fall, and basically has stayed down since then.

RON430

[QUOTE=Overclocker;2366473][SIZE="1"]Gas prices will spike to $4 per gallon by 2015 and $5 per gallon by 2020.
QUOTE]

Oh come on. Another hurricane summer and we will spike to $4 a gallon next year. Not sure who the geniuses are that were surveyed but maybe the only attitude you can take away about the price of gas with the current world situation, the vulnerability demonstrated by the hurricanes, presidential election staring us in the face, additional supply abnormalities like Iraq's tenuous oil industry stability, and so forth is that gas prices are becoming more volatile. Price stability in gasoline is getting very hard to predict. If the survey were on average gas price for the year for the country, I would say it is also on the low side. If it is for temporary spikes, it is even less useful.

CK6Speed

iTrader: (1)

We hit about $3.80-$3.90 on Oahu, and on the other Islands it went over $4.00.

mmarshall

I agree with most of this, RON, but not the Presidential election part. We heard a bunch of doomsdayers last autumn saying that the long, steep price drop from July to November was just an election ploy......and that the oil companies would shoot the price way back up again afterwards. Well, that has not happened. It went up and down several times like a yo-yo, but only in small 5 and 10-cent jumps, and now seems to be taking a somwhat larger downturn.

-J-P-L-

Not at the slow rate that the auto-makers and other related industries are working at. 2020 cars will be on the road in only 12 years. Hydrogen still has a long way to go before it's common place. I think the biggest difference is that there will be a lot more hybrids on the road than today.

Even going back to about 1985, some thought that we'd be flying in cars by around 2015. Things don't change in the auto industry as fast as we'd predict. There is to much that is hard to change.

mmarshall

It's not quite as slow as you think. GM has E85 ( 85% ethanol-gas ) certified engines in general production now ( mostly for trucks and large SUV's). That fuel is generally available in the Midwest, but not on the East or West coasts yet, where it is still hard to find and expensive. And it doesn't get the mileage that plain gasoline does either.

Honda ( usually the leader in new engine technology ) is only a couple of years away from putting a hydrogen fuel-cell car...the FCX.....into production. It has already been in limited use, for evaluation, by some government organizations and automotive testing firms.

-J-P-L-

I agree there is progress being made, but still not as fast as it should be moving. But of course it always comes down to money.

Mavericck stated that we're all going to be driving those types of cars in 13 years. I responded to that statement. I can guarantee that we'll still have a lot of cars running around with gasoline as a primary source of power. People would be suprised to hear that 100 years ago we had more electric cars on the road than today! 100 years of progress and we're primarily gas powered.

mmarshall

It's actually a lack of an alternate infrasturcture and supply system, more so than money. The only widespread alternate non-electric fuel currently in production, is, of course, diesel fuel.


Interesting that you should say that. 100 years ago, there were quite a few electric cars in production, along with steam-powered ones as well. Gasoline-powered engines had not really been perfected yet, and starting them up with the cantankerous hand cranks was testy at best, and often dangerous....the cranks could kick back and injure your arm or shoulder. When Cadillac invented the electric self-starter ( either 1908 or 1912...can't remember ), it completely revolutionized the gas-engine buisness, and led to the demise of the early steam and electric cars....with their limited ranges and the time and inconvience of heating up boilers, they could no longer compete.

-J-P-L-

That's exactly the problem. To start with, there's a million gas stations all set up to pump gas. Does anyone really want to go though the trouble of completely changing all that? Nope. Nevermind all the other industries catered to serving gasoline and gas powered vehicle needs. It will take a tremendous amount of work and time and billions of dollars to switch to a complete alternative.